Murmurs of peace?
October 08, 2010
October 7 2010 marked the beginning of the tenth year of the war that rages still in Afghanistan. Over those nine years the Taliban have gone from being 'defeated' – which they never were in military terms – to being participants in any peace negotiations that involve the Afghan government, our own government and other governments that have an interest in keeping a spoon in the Afghan pot. Defeated the Taliban most certainly are not. They have fought the coalition forces of ISAF to a stalemate. Neither side has the killer punch that would deliver a victory, and the only path left to all, apart from the path of continued conflict, is talking. Who talks with whom and about what is going to determine the future shape of Afghanistan and there are now reports that tell of the US and the Afghan government talking to the Haqqani network and the Quetta Shura -- both entities that have a stake in future governance in Afghanistan.
There is going to be no peace without having even the most intransigent of insurgents as partners in it. Those who have been fighting for almost a decade are going to want a slice of the peace dividend for themselves and their supporters; which will mean places within provincial cabinets and at federal level as well. 'Face' and 'honour' are everything in Afghan society, and to not be at the table when the spoils of peace are divided up is unthinkable, and the Haqqanis and their ilk need to find an accommodation with the state that leaves their honour intact and their position in tribal society not weakened. The various reports of contacts between the many players, not all of them in the same game, have mostly been denied by official sources so far, but an Afghan endgame may be beginning to emerge. The leakage of western support for the Karzai government is as yet a trickle but could become a flood if anti-war political forces in Europe and the US gain significant traction. This would be an unmitigated disaster, as Karzai is well beyond his sell-by date and the only thing keeping him in power is the absence of a suitable alternative. Alone, he would be unable to hold anything together for more than a few weeks, perhaps days. Karzai has to stay and manage -- with support -- what amounts to an interregnum before he exits. The western nations and parts of the Arab world desperately need Afghanistan to hold together, and if the price of the glue that makes that happen is talking to the numerous and disparate elements that make up the Taliban, then so be it. Endless warfare is the alternative, but there is now a sense of war-weariness that could in the end drive all to the talking-table.
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Cannon on the loose
October 08, 2010
The 'clarification' from a spokesman for Musharraf -- that he has apparently been 'misunderstood' as far as his comments on Pakistan's involvement in training militants to infiltrate Indian-Held Kashmir go -- will convince no one. The unfortunate comments were made to a respectable German publication; they were affirmed several times during the interview and there seems to be very little possibility of 'misunderstanding'. Sadly, we have understood too well. The former dictator appears to have parted ways with good sense, dignity and the restraint expected of anyone who holds a position of responsibility. The remarks on militants are obviously a huge embarrassment for Pakistan and, for obvious reasons, have left almost everyone in the country foaming at the mouth. The fury of both the civilian and military leadership is easy to comprehend. If he saw advantage in such candour we wonder why Musharraf did not come up with his disclosure during the nine years he served as head of state.
This is not the only example of bad judgment on the part of Musharraf who believes he has a future in the politics of Pakistan. His swaggering attack on the PML-N chief puts before us all the nature of a man who has, time and again, proved that he is both arrogant and quite capable of behaviour that verges on the idiotic. It is his own intellect that Musharraf needs to study. It would appear that in a desperate bid for attention, Musharraf is ready to say more or less anything to gain some headline space. Quite evidently his claims to patriotism do not go beyond words. If they did he would think twice about what he says or what the implications could be. If anything, Musharraf's behaviour proves that he is completely unfit to lead Pakistan. Fortunately there seems little possibility of him doing it. The most recent comments made by him will certainly steer many away from the All-Pakistan Muslim League and its chief. Most politicians in the country have indeed already written it off. Musharraf has emerged as a kind of comic figure, ranting on in a manner that makes little sense. Some of what he has said could have unfortunate consequences for Pakistan. The few aides and supporters he still retains should exhort him to use better judgment when he speaks, for the sake of this country and its people.