Af-Pak Strategic Review

Saleem Safi

Expectations of a positive change in the US approach to fighting terrorism in the Af-Pak region and restoring peace to Afghanistan were high before the official release of the annual Af-Pak Review. However, the “review” has nothing new to offer on US policies and strategies. It speaks volumes of US self-righteousness and its self-serving approach to the solution of a problem that necessarily requires concerted efforts and inputs from domestic and regional stakeholders. The review reflects the fact that the US security establishment has succeeded in painting a brighter picture to trick the Obama administration into pursuing a military solution.
The US policies in the war on terror are still dictated by people with tunnel vision, because they are shaped by social and political prejudices. The policymakers are trained and brought up in Western social and political environments having least relevance to the novel Eastern cultures like Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The US and Western failures in Afghanistan have been caused by misplaced priorities and wrong strategies; primarily, the huge amounts of money they spent on military operations should have been used to woo Afghans and some regional stalwarts. The second reason is the strangulation of the Karzai government, which is not even trusted in trivial administrative and political matters. With this status and power, how can Karzai deliver on the US and Western demands? Third, the US never trusted important regional players and allies while formulating the so-called anti-terror policies. Lastly, the US is ambivalent: it talks of a political solution but simultaneously uses force, it orders troops surges but also announces hasty withdrawals.
The administration does not plan a change in the practice of spending money on military operations instead of diverting it to welfare and development projects for the Afghan people. Pakistan still occupies the important position of key to the solution of the crisis, but the Obama administration failed to review the United States’ self-defeating policy of indifference towards Pakistan’s regional and international interests, concerns and reservations.
Iran, Central Asia and China are still conspicuous by their absence from the US radar screen for a partnership to forge a regional alliance against terrorism. The Review’s failure to give these powers their due position vis-a-vis their role in the Afghan problem has actually widened the gulf of mistrust, thus killing all hopes of a durable regional solution. Additionally, the Karzai government has been kept out of any future initiatives for reconciliation, policymaking and adjustments with the Taliban and other resistance forces. No less interesting is the fact that the review talks about troop surge and troop withdrawal in the same vein.
Obama seemed upbeat in announcing that Al-Qaeda has been weakened. There is no doubt that drone attacks and targeted operations have liquidated some Al-Qaeda members, but Obama appeared to believe in the fallacy that decapitation of the second- and third-tier leadership would reduce the organisations’ ability to strike back. Al-Qaeda’s rallying call is increasingly attracting young and passionate Muslim youth. After Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, the organisation has exhibited its presence and power in Yemen. Shockingly, Al-Qaeda’s ideology and jihadi calls have made inroads in North America and Europe as well.
The Review betrays the fact that Gen David Petraeus persuaded the Obama administration and political establishment about the efficacy of current strategies through a list of Taliban and Al-Qaeda’s second- and third-tier leaders killed or maimed over the past six months. The general also seems to have prevailed upon the civilian establishment at the State Department, which favours a timely withdrawal from the Afghan quagmire.
The Afghan and war-on-terror policies are exclusively devised and pursued by the security establishment in Pakistan. The security establishment is directly dealing with the Americans on these issues. There have been ups and downs in the relationship between the US and Pakistani security establishments over the war on terror and Afghan strategies. Currently, there are indications that tensions between the two are turning into open confrontation. The US media has again started targeting the Pakistani security establishment. The US government has repeated the “do more” mantra in the review. In the charged atmosphere the alleged issuance of a notice by a US court to the current and previous DGs of the ISI has added fuel to the fire. In response, the drone attacks victims recently organised a protest in Islamabad. The victims submitted application to Abpara police station for registration of an FIR against the CIA station chief in Islamabad, which caused him to leave Pakistan.
The US and the Western powers refuse to mend their ways. The regional stakeholders in the Afghan problems would also not change their positions. Soon the region is going to face intense confrontation again. The US government will arm-twist Pakistan into following suit. The Taliban’s Quetta Shura, military operations in North Waziristan and the extension of drone attacks into the settled areas of Pakistan will be hotly contested issues between the US and Pakistani security establishments which seem to have been in confrontation over these issues from the very outset. In the process, the real losers will be Afghans and Pakistanis, particularly the Pakhtuns of both countries.