Sick man of Asia?

Babar Sattar

The world believes that the 21st Century will be about Asia’s ascendency. Turkey, once the sick man of Europe, is on the rise. This country with a young population comprising over 99 per cent Muslims has begun to have its own doubts about the benefits of joining the European Union. While its economy was a basket case and at the mercy of the IMF less than two decades ago, buoyed by economic growth and success many in Turkey now believe they might be better off outside the EU as opposed to being bogged down by Greece, Portugal and Ireland as part of the Union. While it has had a fling with an overt role of the military, it is democracy, fiscal discipline, secularism and cultural liberties that explain the growing strength of Turkey.
Indonesia that houses the largest number of Muslims around the world is another shining model. Its brilliant Trade Minister speaking recently at a symposium organised by the Asia Society explained that while over 88 per cent of the Indonesian population is Muslim, Indonesia is not an Islamic country. Driving around the country it becomes obvious that mosques, temples and monasteries can coexist happily. You find that the faith and religious sensibilities of the largest Muslim community on the planet is not offended simply because people are afforded the ability to chose their lifestyles and the extent to which they wish to abide by scripture and ritual. The success of Indonesia too can be explained by its sustained economic growth, democracy and religious and cultural liberties.
Amidst the latest global financial crisis that has mired the US and Europe in feeble economic activity, China and India are being viewed as engines of growth for the world economy. When the US president or European leaders visit our estranged neighbor they are visibly in a marketing mode and looking for opportunities to work with India. As part of the process to win India’s favor and lend support to its concerns, they jibe at Pakistan as well. Such finger-wagging from across the border makes us all livid. But we haven’t even begun to realise that diplomatic demarches, hollow swagger or exhibition of unrestrained anger against a ‘conspiring’ West is not going to change our fortune or the world’s opinion about us. If we keep aside nationalism, self-pride and similar extra-rational influences, our situation does look pretty dismal and scary.
This is not meant to be another self-deprecating rant aimed at adding to the pessimism all around. Pakistanis have tremendous potential. We know that. And the success and industry of Pakistani expatriates across the globe bears witness. But potential is not enough. In practical life it is performance that matters. And if we take a dispassionate measure of our performance as a state and a society, we find ourselves severely wanting. But we need not swing from self-righteous delusionalism to nihilism. We need not blame the West for all our ills or condemn ourselves to perpetual misery due to a faulty gene or unflattering history. In terms of our state of mind, we need to be self-critical and unhappy enough to want change, but not resigned to the extent that we question our ability to instill and embrace it.
There are various myths that we have come to believe that prevent the change that we need. The first being that we all know what our problems are, the question is how to get to the solution. With all due respect, there is no consensus in Pakistan regarding our problems nor do we share a vision for the future that encompasses desired solutions. The second myth is that we are haunted not because of our approach to policy formulation but lack of implementation. Again, nothing can be further from truth. Because we are still confused about our vision for the future of Pakistan, how can we even begin to formulate considered policies? The third (and probably the most disempowering and damaging) myth is that we need a strong leader who knows wherein our true good lies and is consequently able to save us. We don’t need a messiah but ordinary people inspired and angry enough to think of themselves as agents of change.
We need to start by building a consensus around a vision for Pakistan that is democratic, fiscally disciplined and welfare-oriented, officially neutral toward religion, ethnically inclusive and protective of civil liberties of all citizens. When we speak of democracy, we are not alluding merely to the formal institutions and processes of democracy, but also the culture and ethos within democratic institutions such as political parties that is imperative to sustain democracy. We need a democracy where political parties are neither personal fiefs nor heirlooms. But let us also not forget that khaki saviors waiting eagerly in the shadows will not help foster the evolution of such democratic culture. The continuing political role of the military will only delay the reform of political parties.
We were all taught early in our childhood that whoever pays the piper names the tune. We seem to have forgotten the lesson growing up. Our indiscriminate hatred for the West, our unsustainable military expenditure or our mouth-frothing mullahs will not bolster our sovereignty or reduce our dependence on the US and the IMF. We need fiscal discipline and get down to balancing our books. We have been living on borrowed cash and have now maxed out the available credit. This party is going to crash very soon. And while tethering on the verge of bankruptcy, instead of putting their heads together to agree on measures to curtail expenditure and generate revenue all our political parties are opting for populism.
We don’t need symbolic pro-people populism of the PML-N and the MQM manifested in opposition to the RGST and petrol price hike. Nobody wants to pay taxes or pay extra for petrol. But we need to cough up the funds to sustain ourselves somehow. Our political, agriculture and industrial elites do not wish to pay any taxes, the state is not willing to rationalise its military and other non-developmental expenditure, our generals and bureaucrats wish to continue with their opulent lifestyles sustained by taxes paid by less than ten per cent of the populace and the struggling masses do not have the ability to pay for petrol or commodities anymore. We have allocated no money to educate our kids despite our agreement that education is the panacea to all our ills. We have a large standing army equipped with nuclear weapons but no money to provide food and health security to citizens.
This state of affairs is clearly not sustainable. And let us not wait for any saviors. None will come. We can either allow things to degenerate further to a level where bankruptcy, mal-governance and religious and cultural intolerance lead to violent change or alternatively we can willingly embrace reform. Let us remember that intoxicated by power and privilege, our ruling civil and military elites are not sober enough to take a realistic view of the storm we are caught in and the fast-approaching deluge. The indigent masses have neither the training nor the ability to instill reform. It is the educated middle class of Pakistan that has the most to lose if it doesn’t take the initiative to instigate and lead a reform movement. It is this lot that has the potential, the ability and the incentive to provide the required leadership for change. Those of us who plan to continue to live in Pakistan and raise our kids here do not have the luxury of time.