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Old Monday, March 28, 2011
evez evez is offline
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"a change in the official Bank Rate takes around two years to have its full impact on inflation" is the analysis of BANK OF ENGLAND in their publication. Now you can better judge if a developed country needs 2 years.....what would be the time lag for a developing country where recognition lag, policy making lag and implementation lag are common.

They further explain this phenomenon as "A change in the official Bank Rate may have some instant effects - for example on consumers' confidence - which may influence spending straight away. But, more generally, a change in the official Bank Rate will take time to influence consumers' and firms' behavior and decisions. Overall, a change in interest rates today will tend to have its full effect on output over a period of about one year, and on inflation over a period of about two years. This is, of course, a very approximate guide."

In this sense, monetary policy has to look ahead. Interest rates have to be set based on what inflation might be over the coming two years, not what it is today - though that is a relevant consideration. Policy-makers have to judge what the likely economic developments will be over that period, in particular what the rate of growth in demand will be relative to the growth in supply (output). This is why the Monetary Policy Committee uses forecasts of growth and inflation to help it decide on the right level for interest rates.

Your points are although very valid but at the same time we should see the other side. you are an economist and of course analyze in a more deeper and better way. This is all how i analyze the current scenario.
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shtanzeel (Monday, March 28, 2011)