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Old Sunday, April 17, 2011
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India's bid to join the UNSC does not threaten to destabilize Pakistan for the following reasons:

- The Kashmir issue has been on the back-burner at the United Nations for 63 years even without India's presence there as a permanent member. To state that India would block all discussion on the issue is therefore superfluous. Furthermore, at Simla in 1971, we agreed with India to resolve all outstanding issues bilaterally.

- The Indian paranoia inside Pakistan and especially within the military establishment is unrealistically excessive. India is now more than just a mere regional power, it is increasingly looking to become a "big" player economically and politically. India's foreign and defense policies stopped being Pakistan-centric after Pakistan's defeat and dismemberment in 1971. In other words, India no longer seeks to destroy Pakistan as its #1 unstated foreign policy initiative. It has bigger fish to fry now. China is one of them.

- India has come under the United State's wing now as its balancing power in the region visavis China. The evidence for that is the recent nuclear deal and the United State's increasing thawing up to India. Now it's in America's interest that India does not confront Pakistan because the US wants Pakistan to focus on its western borders and not its eastern. India won't act against the wishes of its biggest benefactor now. In fact, in 2002, India was about to attack Pakistan in response to the attack on the Indian parliament but it stopped because it was threatened by the United States that if it attacked Pakistan, all US corporations in India would immediately pull out.

- Pakistan supports the Kashmiri insurgency and India supports the Baloch insurgency. This is an open secret now. I don't see India's ascent to the UNSC permanent membership would change anything about this status quo.
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