WikiLeaks and the ISI
April 27th, 2011
It seems WikiLeaks will do more damage to US-Pakistan relations than had been earlier estimated. The latest batch of secret US documents circulated among the top institutions in Washington say that America began suspecting the ISI of playing a double game while Musharraf was in power. They report that a number of “Guantanamo detainees confessed to working with the ISI and the Pakistani military in facilitating al Qaeda and the Taliban.”
The link between ISI and terrorist organisations has not been established by evidence beyond doubt. Most allegations do not have corroborative evidence. And most of the instances mentioned in the cables date back to 2003-2007, before there was a change of command in the country.
However, by 2007, the year Musharraf was deposed, the US had listed the ISI among 36 terrorist groups and it is likely that it is still listed in the current Threat Indicator Matrix of the US. Earlier this year, suspicions that the CIA was running a network of agents in Pakistan became a reality, with the arrest of Raymond Davis in Lahore. The CIA and ISI, post-Davis, have got their two governments at loggerheads in the months before the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Director-General ISPR Major-General Athar Abbas has been cautious and, when queried, has asked for an official stamp of US ownership of the ‘leak’. His response was measured and correct: “It appears to be an effort at instigation. We will not issue official statements on documents that we do not know the authenticity of. Let the Pentagon comment and then we will see.” The truth is that, after US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen’s remarks accusing the ISI of being involved with the Haqqani network a few days earlier in Islamabad, the stamp of authority — some would say arrogance — is almost there. If and when more corroborative assertions come officially, it will be time for Pakistan to decide on the next step.
Bits and pieces of evidence had been piling up in the past, including facts in the latest indictment of two Pakistani American nationals, David Headley and Tahawwur Rana, at a Chicago court, along with four Pakistanis in Pakistan (one linked to the army) involved in ‘pre-operation’ spying in Mumbai before the 2008 terrorist attack. The Americans have never minced words over their finding that Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) was involved in the attack. They have consistently demanded the banning of the successor outfit, Jamaatud Dawa. Pakistan has resisted the ban and Interior Minister Rehman Malik has admitted that the prosecution of the LeT men being tried in Pakistani “has been slow”.
From General Hamid Gul to General Mahmud, the ISI has been led by a number of chiefs who thought differently of al Qaeda from the ordinary Pakistani. The chiefs of the ISI who were not of the same mould, too, have not seen eye-to-eye with America because of a mismatch of policies over India. Secular chiefs such as Aslam Beg and and those seen by many to be sympathetic to the cause of the militants, such as Hamid Gul, both types have always cautioned the Pakistani nation against being friendly with America. Just as the Americans equate ISI with Hamas, Pakistani officials have often accused the CIA of working in tandem with Mossad and RAW. What has been a covert spy war under the garb of friendship now threatens to come out into the open. No one in Pakistan is going to offend the ISI. The opinion is going to be overwhelmingly in favour of cutting off ties with America. But if any rogue elements are involved with the militants, they must be stopped by the government or the military.
Imran Khan has sent another cannonball across the American bow: After one month, he and his anti-drone tribal processions are going to stop Nato supplies from reaching Afghanistan. This is Pakistan’s challenge: That America needs it more than it needs America, despite the steep economic downturn predicted for Pakistan, including a plummeting rupee and a manufacture breakdown accompanied by the collapse of law and order. TV channels are already accusing mainstream political parties of being less enthusiastic about the drone row. This is correct: The parties with chances to rule Pakistan don’t want to escalate the ISI-CIA crisis to a point of no return.
Attacks on navy buses
April 27th, 2011
Until just a year ago, it was widely believed that Karachi had been spared the wrath of the militants, possibly because the city was the main hub of fundraising for these groups. But now there can be no doubt that militant cells in the metropolis have been activated. Yesterday’s twin blasts at navy buses in Baldia Town and Defence Housing Authority Phase II are only the latest in a series of attacks to rock Karachi, following deadly explosions at the Abdullah Shah Ghazi shrine and the DIG Crime Investigation Department (CID) late last year. It is believed that roadside explosives were used in the two blasts, killing four people and injuring as many as 50 others. A third bomb was found and defused in Baldia Town.
While it is too early for the police to apportion blame for the attacks, it may not be a coincidence that the blasts took place just a day after the CID had arrested a leader of little-known terrorist group al Mukhtar for a blast at a gambling den in Lyari on April 21. Police chief Fayyaz Legahri claimed that the group had links to the Taliban in South Waziristan and that the arrested suspect, Yaqoob Commando, had received training there. If there is indeed a link between the arrest and the naval bus attacks, it shows how the militants are capable of reacting and taking revenge with extreme swiftness.
There will inevitably be talk of security failures but, as Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah pointed out, it simply isn’t possible for more than 25-30 per cent of vehicles to be checked. Thus, even though the chief minister confirmed that they had prior information of threats in the city, it simply isn’t possible to thwart these attacks without specific intelligence. Additionally, the bombs in Baldia Town were hidden in rocks, making them hard to locate, while navy buses are clearly marked and hence easy targets. Blasts such as these can only be prevented when intelligence agencies know exactly when they are going to take place and who is planning on carrying them out. That, sadly, is lacking in Pakistan, making repeat attacks all over the country a virtual certainty.