@newstudent: You raised good questions, lets discuss constructively what could be the possibilities.
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Originally Posted by newstudent
Now come to hard facts, in case of complete breakdown in relations with the USA and also for that matter the Europe.
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We are not discussing about complete breakdown in relations instead relations on some equitable terms.
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1. Pakistan pays a whooping 670 billion Rs annually for its domestic debt, while only 70 billion Rs for international debt. Govt. can reduce its domestic expenditure by cutting down the payments to its own people.
Questions #1 is "Can our people digest this?"
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In short, resource management and good governance.
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2. We mainly rely on USA and west for international trade.
Question #2 is "Can we and our industries live without those huge markets for their products?"
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Yes, you are right that we mainly rely on USA and west for international trade but Our traders are competing in a perfect competition. US and west is not giving them "khairat". Make your products competitive in terms of quality and costs then see who restrict you to compete in the global market. We also need to discover new markets but qulity and costs matter.
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3. We do huge defence expenditure and also need modern weaponry from USA.
Question #3 is "Can we live without US support in weapons procurement and also can we reduce our defence expenditure given our situation?" ( I hope you may know that chinese weapons are good but are not much advanced as american weaponry and also by the way chinese are good with us but not good enough in terms of money matters)
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This dependence on US in weaponry is obvious but its also has costs. 1965 and 1971 wars weapon restrictions by US are also obvious. What is the use of those advanced weaponry which is not available at the time of need? What is the use of that weaponry if We couldn't even smell US choppers in our space and they operate and fleed. If China could survive without US weapons then why we couldn't.
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4. We need foreign exchange to import oil from Middle East, if we don't have much foreign exchange then
question #4 is "Can we live without oil imports for indefinate period? ( I assume that arab sheikhs will give us some 'khairat" like they did after 1998 nuclear explosions, but for how long? )
5. We are much reliant on the remittances, in case of complete break down in the relations, USA may stop Pakistani migrants sending us the money
Question #5 is "Can we survive without these remittances?".
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First, their is a difference in complete breakdown and equitable terms. Second, US is not the only country in terms of remittances. We have UAE, Saudi Arabia, GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), UK EU countries, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and many more. By considering this long list US remittance part is small portion.
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6. We have been nurturing our white elephants called PIA, WAPDA, KESC, Steel Mills and so forth. These elephants are hugely subsidized.
Questions #6 is "Can we continue living with these white elephants the the way they are?"
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This question is related to bad governance and our own incapabilities, not related to relations with US.
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7. Our people dont pay personal taxes, you may all know that we have one of the lowest tax to GDP ratio. The low tax collection is one of the main reason on our foreign reliance.
Questions #7 is "Can we live with this meager amount of tax if we say bye bye to USA?"
Please do think over it.
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Again our internal fault. Interestingly people, high gentry, who are evading taxes are the big supporter of US aid.
I am here concluding this, you present a view that US aid is inevitable and we couldn't survive without it. Here some facts regarding our resources. 5th largest gold mine, 7th largest copper mine, 1st largest chromium mine, 5th largest milk producer, 3rd largest coal reserves, 7th nuclear power, 6th largest army, 4 best army of the world, 11th largest wheat producer, 12th largest rice producer, and a long list. In spite these facts, you still think that the US aid is inevitable. The biggest broblem is lack of leadership and bad governance.
64 years of country's history proved that aid never changed us towards betterment and it couldn't in future, it will push us more towards vulnerabilities. No survival is far better than this survival with such vulnerabilities. We need first step, just first stone to throw, someone has to challenge this status quo. Shifting the Pak-US relationships never mean to draw a battle but to establish relations on equitable terms.