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Call for Change · #1 Sunday, June 26, 2011

Omissions and Commissions

After much prevarication and double-dealing, the government has finally conceded the right of the chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, to nominate a judge of the Supreme Court, Justice Javed Iqbal, to head a commission of inquiry into the May 2 Abbottabad security breach by US Navy Seals. But the Commission, sanctioned by a consensus in parliament one month ago, is far from kicking off in earnest. The government's other nominees are not all credible or independent. So a controversy will dog the government until it is reconstituted to everyone's satisfaction.

Much the same sort of official foot-dragging has marred an inquiry into the murder of journalist Saleem Shehzad. The protesting media was ignored until it threatened to black out government and military news. Then the government conceded the need for a judge of the SC to head it but came a cropper when it sought to bypass the CJP in nominating one.

The interesting thing, however, is that the CJP, when requested, immediately conceded the judge chosen by the government in each case. This shows the willingness of the CJP to play ball with the executive where there is no conflict of interest or ego.

Clearly, the government is not interested in uncovering the facts in each case because they may embarrass the military. And the military is not keen on edging closer to the SC and doing its bidding vide Article 190 of the constitution which arguably enjoins it to obey the orders of the SC to compel the executive to comply. That is the quid pro quo for protecting each other from the slings of the media and the arrows of Nawaz Sharif. So both commissions are doomed to wither on the vine.

Nawaz Sharif has read the writing on the wall and decided to confront both the military and PPP. So he has launched his PMLN as the anti-establishment party. But this is going to be a tough act to follow because Punjab, his home base, is also the recruiting ground of the Pakistan Army and the deep reservoir of its obsessive anti-India national security ideology and policy. His brave talk of a dividend from peace with India, and civilian supremacy over, and accountability of, the military, will confuse many Punjabis. But his targeting of the PPP's abject incompetence and the alleged corruption of Mr Asif Zardari will delight others. His anti-American populism will thrill and attract people most of all, especially since both the PPP and the army leadership is perceived to be pro-America. One may also expect him to forgive the political opportunisms of many of his old comrades and welcome them back into the ranks of the PMLN.

Mr Zardari has picked up the gauntlet. He has counterattacked with some fairly demeaning epithets to describe Mr Sharif. His strategy to rope in the PMLQ is based on the simple arithmetic that the PPP has got a lot of the votes and the PMLQ has got some good electoral candidates in Punjab. Promise of a Seraiki province is a winning slogan in the south too. He is secure in Sindh while the ANP, a devoted partner, is not likely to let the JUI encroach on its hard won government. That is why he is in with a fair chance to stop Mr Sharif in his tracks.

The military's "wild card" is Imran Khan whose popularity is rising by the week. Many young people are impressed with his passion and candour and want to "give him a chance". They believe both PMLN and PPP have had two chances each and bungled them. But Pakistan's politics has become so factionalised into regions, ethnicities, biradaris, tribes and sects that it is highly unlikely he can win an election. The military is nonetheless hoping that along with the MQM and FATA, Imran's PTI can help create a countervailing force in parliament allied to the "establishment".

Mr Zardari is digging his heels in to complete one term and spring for another. Mr Sharif knows all will be lost if he can't heave Mr Zardari out before next March when the Senate elections are due. As it is, the PMLN cannot even snatch the role of the leader of the opposition in the Senate. After March it will all but be wiped out on the basis of the current arithmetic. Similarly, it is a do-or-die moment for Imran Khan. He has been out in the cold for the last fifteen years and the prospect of another five in the wilderness is not acceptable.

Meanwhile, the media is feeling particularly insecure and the judiciary is uneasy at the prospect of a PPP-Army alliance. The former fears a crackdown and the latter is agonising about being rendered impotent.

No good can come of this political matrix. It is inherently unstable. Our tragedy could be compounded by the impatience and arrogance of America. It is forcefully staking its claims in the region while we are scrambling for countervailing space within our own country.

Editorial: Omissions and Commissions by Najam Sethi

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Stunner (Sunday, June 26, 2011)