Uprising and Crackdown in Syria
The Asad family has ruled Syria since 1970. President Bashar al Asad, like his father Hafez al-Asad before him, has wielded almost total control over domestic politics and has steered the country’s outsized foreign policy to play key roles in multiple arenas in the Middle East(Lebanon, Israel-Palestine, Iran, and Iraq) despite Syria’s small size and lack of resources. Now,with the country in turmoil, many observers are interested in how prolonged Syrian instability (or a possible changing of the guard there) might affect other U.S. foreign policy priorities in the region, such as Lebanese stability and countering Hezbollah; limiting Iranian influence; andsolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Unlike in Egypt, where the United States has provided support to the military and democracy assistance to newly empowered political groups, the U.S. role in Syria is more limited. Some U.S. sanctions are already in place and Syria has been ineligible for U.S. aid due to its inclusion on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list. Military and intelligence cooperation is sporadic and limited. Thus the role the United States can play in Syria’s evolving domestic crisis is in question, and policymakers may be searching for channels of influence in order to preserveU.S.interests in a rapidly changing political landscape.
Current Status
As of September 2011, popular efforts to overturn the Asad regime have stalled amidst a brutalregime crackdown. Protests continue in Syria almost daily, but reports indicate that the fractured opposition is having difficulty maintaining momentum as the conflict wears on. In recent weeks,some demonstrators have even directly called for international non-military intervention to support their cause, a sign that that some Syrians may be losing hope due to regime-instigated
violence. Many foreign nations have condemned the regime’s tactics and some, including the United States, have called on President Bashar al Asad to step down, but no country has indicated its willingness to militarily intervene on behalf of the opposition as had been the case in Libya.Moreover, U.N. efforts to further sanction the Syrian Arab Republic Government (or SARG) have stalled over continued Russian and Chinese opposition to U.N. sanctions. According to U.N. figures, as of September 2011, at least 2,600 people have been killed since the start of the Syriauprising in March 2011.Many opponents of President Asad had hoped by now that his regime would fracture, particularlythe military. That has not happened in any significant way, and the Syrian government has
violently sought to ensure core regime stability. When reports surfaced that demonstrators were contemplating violent resistance against the SARG, regime-protection forces even more
aggressively pursued opponents, particularly army defectors and former regime officials such asHama Attorney General Adnan Bakour, who has been the highest level civilian defector to date.
President Obama said that
“The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way. His calls for dialogue and reform have rung hollow while he is imprisoning, torturing, and slaughtering his own people. We have consistently said thatPresident Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way. He has not led. For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.”
A special session of the U.N. Human Rights Council in April adopted Resolution S-16/1, whichunequivocally condemns the use of lethal violence against peaceful protestors by the Syrianauthorities” and requested that the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights provide apreliminary report on the situation of human rights in Syria. On June 14, the High Commissionerreported that the Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR) “has received numerous reports
alleging the excessive use of force by Syrian security forces against civilians, the majority of whom were peaceful protestors. The most egregious reports concern the use of live ammunition against unarmed civilians, including from snipers positioned on rooftops of public buildings, andthe deployment of tanks in areas densely populated by civilians.”
The final report, reviewed at a special Council session in August, included reports of murder, “disappearance,” and torture by Syrian security forces and indications that at least 1,900 Syrians had died in the violence throughJuly 15.In response, the Human Rights Council has appointed a three-person independent commission of inquiry that is tasked with reporting by the end of November about specific abusesand identifying perpetrators.The continuing protests and violence are creating increased pressure for international action,
although the positions of some key actors have not changed significantly since June. U.N. leadersand European leaders have been increasingly vocal in demanding action, and the Arab Leagueand several Arab governments have called on the Syriangovernment to implement reforms andhalt the use of force. Opponents of international action, including Russia and China, remain waryabout the use of sanctions to create further pressure on President Asad and his government. Syrian opposition leaders are calling for international sanctions, but remain vehemently opposed tointernational military intervention. As such, most experts and observers see no potential for asuccessful initiative to seek United Nations Security Council mandate for a military operation.
At present, attention is focused on competing draft Security Council resolutions, sponsored by theRussia and the United States, France, Portugal, Germany, and the United Kingdom respectively.
Sanctions Against the Asad Regime
The U.S.-European draft would impose travel and asset sanctions on Syrian leaders and institute an arms embargo on Syria. The Russian draft would call on opposition and government leaders to resume dialogue while reforms are implemented. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice has indicated that the U.S. government has not been encouraged by the positions that temporary Security Council members Brazil, India, and South Africa have taken on Syria andsimilar issues to date.
Key related recent statements and developments include
•
On September 15, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon called on the
international community to take
“coherent measures and speak with one voice,”saying, “for six months, we have seen escalating violence and repression. The
international community has repeatedly appealed to President Assad to stop, mostrecently the foreign ministers of the Arab League. He must now listen to such
urgent calls.”
•
The United Kingdom, France, and the European Union (EU) continue to
condemn the Asad government’s use of force against protestors, and support the use of sanctions as a means to compel it to cease the repressive use of force. On September 2, the EU banned the import of Syrian oil and widened the scope of existing asset freezes and travel bans on Syrian officials in response to what EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashtondescribed as “the appalling and unacceptable escalation of the brutal campaign the regime has been waging against the Syrian people
Russia continues to resist proposals to include U.N. sanctions on Syria in aSecurity Council resolution on the crisis. Some Syrian activists reportedly haveorganized protests criticizing Russia for its position. On September 12, PresidentDmitri Medvedev said, “Russia proceeds from the assumption that it’s necessary to approve a resolution on Syria that will be tough, but well balanced at the same
time that would address both parties to the conflict—President Bashar Assad’sgovernment and the opposition. Only in that case could it be successful. …Theresolution must be tough, but it mustn’t automatically involve sanctions. …Thereis absolutely no need now for any additional pressure.”
•
China also has opposed the use of U.N. sanctions on Syria. A spokesperson for
the Chinese Foreign ministry said on September 15,
“The Syria issue should beresolved by relevant parties in Syria through consultations. We hope that Syria will start a Syria-led political process as soon as possible and resolve the crisis
through dialogue. We believe that the international community should abide by the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter as well as the norms governing international relations and should fully respect Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. Whether the international community should take further action on the Syria issue depends on whether the action will
help ease tension in Syria, promote the resolution of differences through political
dialogue, and maintain peace and stability in the Middle East.”
8
•
The Arab League has taken a more active role in recent weeks. Arab League
Secretary General Nabil al Arabi visited Damascus over the weekend ofSeptember 10 for discussions with President Asad. Reports suggest that Al Arabi returned to Cairo with a commitment from President Asad to step down in 2014,to call legislative elections within 6 months, and to name a national unity cabinet for the transition period.
9 The Syrian opposition has widely rejected similar
conditions and has demanded an immediate end to President Asad’s rule. The subsequent Arab League Ministerial meeting in Cairo issued a statement onSeptember 13 stating that,
“The current situation in Syria is still very serious and
an immediate change has to happen in order to stop the bloodshed and preventpeople facing more violence.”
•
Some Arab Gulf state leaders are publicly criticizing the Asad government as
King Abdullah bin Abdelaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia called on PresidentAsad to stop his “killing machine” and implement reform in early August, and Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor Al Thani said on September 13 that,
“We cannot allow people to be killed this way. …The army must
withdraw from inside the cities so that we can start talking about a dialoguebetween the people and the government.”
Both countries, along with Kuwait and Bahrain, have withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus.
Ali al Moussawi, an adviser to Iraqi prime minister Nuri Kamal al Maliki, said inSeptember 2011 that
“We believe that the Syrian people should have morefreedom and have the right to experience democracy....
We are against the onepartyrule and the dictatorship that hasn’t allowed for the freedom of expression.”
Several weeks earlier, Iran had harshly criticized Syria as well. According toIranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
“Regional nations can assist the Syrian people and government in the implementation of essential reforms and theresolution of their problems.... A military solution is never the right solution.”