Obama & South Asia

THE besetting sin of South Asian analyses is a total indifference to any interests save one`s own. Indian reactions to President Barack Obama`s speech in Mumbai on Nov 7 and Pakistan`s reaction to his address to the Indian parliament the next day, provide an excellent case study of that.

At an interaction with college students on Nov 7, a 19-year-old student asked: “Why is Pakistan so important an ally that America has never called it a terrorist state?”

Obama complimented her for asking a “good” question; i.e. one commonly asked and deserved to be laid to rest. He did so by saying “Pakistan is a strategically important country, not just for America, but for the world. If Pakistan is unstable, that`s bad for India. If it`s good and prosperous, that`s good, because India is on the move. India and Pakistan can prosper and live side by side. Pakistan understands the threats from extremism. They now understand the threats within their borders. The progress is not as quick as we`d like.”

That the student asked the question she did is understandable. The instant reaction of TV anchors and panelists betrayed sheer professional incompetence. The United States Pakistan; not least for a decent exit from Afghanistan. The New York Times:

Less than three weeks earlier Mark Landler and Eric Schmitts had reported in “As Pakistani civilian and military leaders arrive here this week for high-level meetings, the Obama administration will begin trying to mend a relationship badly damaged by the US military`s tough new stance in the region.

“Among the sweeteners on the table will be a multiyear security pact with Pakistan, complete with more reliable military aid — something the Pakistani military has long sought to complement the five-year, $7.5bn package of non-military aid approved by the US Congress last year.” The Indians knew this before the guest’s arrival.

Obama knew next to nothing about this region before he became president and is learning on the job. On Nov 8 he said at a joint press conference with his host Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: “The US cannot impose solutions to these problems. I have indicated to the prime minister that we are happy to play any role the parties think is appropriate in reducing tensions” and went on gratuitously to advise “They could start with other issues, with confidence-building measures”.

He should be informed by his advisers that, without any American help, official or from the busybodies who devise proposals for us, India and Pakistan had moved far ahead since 2004 and by 2007 reached the very outskirts of a Kashmir settlement. As Kissinger remarked; do not ask an American for advice. If you do, he will readily provide it.

India and Pakistan must settle their problems by themselves. Terrorism and confidence-building measures are important issues. So is Kashmir. In recent months Pakistan`s leaders have been urging the US to nudge India towards a Kashmir settlement while Indian leaders have pressed it to prod Pakistan for effective action against the perpetrators of the dastardly crime on Nov 26, 2008.

Not to be left behind Mir Waiz Umar Farooq, head of the `moderate` Hurriyat launched a signature campaign for US intervention in the Kashmir dispute. But the United States needs good relations with both Pakistan and India for its own strategic, political and economic interests. It cannot, will not alienate either to please the other.

In December 2001, the Bharatiya Janata Party regime massed troops along the Line of Control and the international border, after the terrorist attack on Parliament House in New Delhi. Its aim was two-fold — to put pressure on Pakistan to act against the perpetrators and on the US to join in the pressure.

The US had its own fish to fry on the issue of terrorism. It went along in a mediatory effort so long as it suited its interests — and washed its hands off. The advisories issued to American travellers in June 2002 swiftly induced second thoughts in New Delhi. By then the war in Afghanistan was well under way. Having made significant progress in bilateral talks Pakistan and India should concentrate now on pushing them ahead towards a settlement.

The Indian government cleared in the first week of this month a Rs2,000 crore proposal to acquire sophisticated equipment for the India Air Force. But India is in no hurry to sign the Logistics Support Agreement and the Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement on which differences persist, as they do on curbs on export of dual-use technology.

After the initial euphoria sober thoughts have taken over on Obama`s cautious qualified words on support for India`s permanent membership of the UN Security Council. On China, India will follow its own line according to its own interests. On Oct 29, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had a successful meeting with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao at Hanoi. Both countries know that it is futile to rely on the US exclusively; still worse, to play the frayed American card. All three need good relations with the US — Pakistan, India and China; each for its own reasons.

Obama & South Asia | Newspaper | DAWN.COM