''Pakistan: a Geopolitical Crux''

Two recent events have increased Pakistan's already remarkable geopolitical importance. The first was an ambitious and complex geo-strategic move by India -- Pakistan's main geopolitical rival -- consisting in a two-fold strategic partnership with China and the United States. Such an initiative by New Delhi, aimed at enhancing India's role as the Indian Ocean's central power, amplifies Islamabad's security concerns regarding its adversary's strategy. The second event was the wave of terrorist attacks which struck London on July 7 and July 21: Scotland Yard rapidly identified some of the perpetrators as British Muslims of Pakistani descent.

Islamabad's Perilous Game in the Post-9/11 International Context

Pakistan's policy is nowadays perceived in a paradoxical way. On the one hand, its regime is considered by diplomats and scholars to be among the most pro-American due to President Pervez Musharraf's official commitment to tackling al-Qaeda and assisting U.S. operations in Afghanistan. On the other hand, its society is regarded as one of the greatest hotbeds of Islamic radicalism, spreading terrorist ideology around the Muslim world. Islamabad is still the only Muslim power to possess a nuclear weapon, which, together with its flourishing demography and Islamic schools' activities, gives it the status of a regional great power.

At a time of China's rise as a global power, the somewhat fragile balance in Islamabad's political and military milieus is to be monitored carefully. Analysts know that both Pakistan's army and its intelligence agency, the I.S.I., are less than monolithic in their support of the current administration. A strategic partnership with Beijing, consisting in defense technology sharing, is allegedly the preferred option for some influential Pakistani decision-makers.

Musharraf's position is similar to that of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak: a pragmatic statesman who aligns with the U.S. notwithstanding the presence of a permanent radical opposition, of a fundamentalist character, deeply rooted in society. Cracking down on religious institutions and political movements that solidly backed al-Qaeda had been Musharraf's card for staying in power with U.S. support after September 11, 2001. It is clear that the terrorist attacks against Britain have put once again an enormous pressure on the Pakistani government.

Reacting to allegations about the possible involvement of some Pakistani citizens in the July 22 Sharm el-Sheikh bombing, Musharraf declared on July 25 that al-Qaeda has been eradicated from the country following Islamabad's anti-terror policy. However, both the U.S. and the E.U. member-states are showing growing concern about Pakistan's inability to tackle terror cells' activities effectively. One of the most worrisome aspects of the problem, Western intelligence agencies say, is that some European citizens of Pakistani descent apparently maintain very close relations with their ancestral home country's radical elements, being said to flock back to their country of origin to receive extremist indoctrination and, possibly, terrorist training. Moreover, some of the most radical imams in Europe are also suspected of furthering al-Qaedaist interests using the local mosque as a training facility.

Although the United States seems to be willing to continue promoting a balance of power in the South Asian region by enhancing cooperation in security and defense policies with both India and Pakistan, the Bush administration is increasingly worried about Islamist activities in Pakistan's north-western tribal region of Waziristan, and also worried about growing Sino-Pakistani military cooperation -- leading to Chinese use of the Gwadar naval base in the Arabian Sea.

On June 15, Pakistani military sources said that U.S. forces killed 24 pro-Taliban militants on Pakistani territory. This seems to show that Washington is determined not to leave the task of fighting Islamist militants to Pakistani forces alone. However, it entails a clear violation of Pakistan's national sovereignty, despite the good relations between Washington and Islamabad. This fact, coupled with the U.S. perception of India as the more important military regional partner -- given the U.S.-China rivalry -- could complicate, if not jeopardize, the future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.


To be Continued...............

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