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Old Saturday, December 10, 2011
azeegum azeegum is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aphrodite View Post
We need to acknowledge the fact that outside Kabul, neither USA nor India is likely to sway supreme because of an unflinching Taliban presence. Southern A-tan is practically out-of-reach of NATO.
we can bank upon diplomatic overtures to like-minded countries in the region like Russia, Iran and China to tame its presence.

There is no way US or anybody else is getting anything out of A-tan without Pak help. Because Pak is the only party to have access to Taliban groups and can harness a negotiation process as an intermediary. And if Pak decides to help, it will naturally secure its interests. If US agrees to Pak demands (which i dont think it will) alls well. But if it doesnt, there will be a deadlock, and given USA's history of bullying to achieve menial goals-it will turn into a serious trouble.
I think US' decision to bank upon India is one of the most dire strategic mistakes its committing in over a 100 years. Its betting on the wrong horse. This is not based on our inherent bias for India, but purely on ground realities.
True, neither India nor US is likely to influence Afghanistan because of an unflinching presence of Taliban. Infact this country has a famous history to its name mentioning the stories of its nation's resolute presence against the toughest phases of war on it. So, the received wisdom at invading Afghanistan is that you enter the country at your will but you cannot exit according to your wishes. Alexander the great invaded it in 329 B.C, the British in 1842 and 1879, and then the Soviet Union invaded in 1979 and withdrew in 1989- all were forced to withdraw without any victory over this country hence an abject misery. The history repeats itself again in Afghanistan when the US has to announce the withdrawal by 2014 too. So A-tan continues to remain undefeated.
Yes I completely concur with you that Pakistan should develop diplomatically friendly terms with the countries sharing common interest like Russia, Iran and China. Russia though has given the friendly gesture to Pakistan by offering a sufficient aid for its steel mills. Things will sure start to look up for Pakistan once it realizes the identification between friend and foe.
Apart from that Aphrodite, Pakistan is up against another dangerous challenge in near future.
I second with your last lines too.
Well, adding more to it, the story of the endgame of A-tan seems a lot convoluted as I read it in yesterday's dawn.
The US wants Karzai regime (with full security of his family and core team), building the capacity of Afghan army, filling the vacuum of ISAF and assist A-tan- all at least till 2014.
Besides, the US would be satisfied if there is a comprehensive disarmament and demobilisation of the militants and their reintegration into the Afghan security set-up, for this will bring more cohesion and preclude the maintenance of the large 250,000 men Afghan army that is a non-sustainable burden on Afghan finances.

While the Taliban are likely to demand the following in a peace deal with the Afghan government:
Removal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan; ending hostile operations against insurgents and their families in Afghanistan and Pakistan; recognition of the Afghan Taliban as a political movement and removing their names from the UN terrorist list; agreeing on a version of Islam to be implemented in Afghanistan; removal of corrupt elements from the Afghan administration and prosecuting or exiling some of the warlords.

Pakistan would be happy with a solution that created an anti-Indian set-up; gave a prominent role to the Taliban in Afghanistan’s future; led to the departure of foreign forces; ended drone strikes and weakened insurgent groups in Pakistan.

But the US plans to channelize India as a proxy power in A-tan, which is most likely not going for the US this time. So, regrettably the endgame does not seem to conclude satisfactorily, because the main nations to conclude on the endgame do not have common aspirations. Let us see what happens!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamza Kahlon View Post
Actually, i dont mind India's venture into Afganistan. I can only see, in due time, A-tan exporting the 'germs' into India.
Well if A-tan exports germs into India, then Indian presence will serve for Pakistan as a blessing in disguise. But, as you know the peace in A-tan means the end of line for the international terrorists there but it does not necessarily mean they will leave the areas in FATA or elsewhere in Pakistan...
Some knowledgeable circles fear that these international terrorist might join local Jehadi groups to gain space and permeate their influence in Pakistan. So, Pakistan also needs to exclude this possible new threat from making further inroads.
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aphrodite (Thursday, December 15, 2011)