The PM’s statements
December 28th, 2011
It is hard to know what to make of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s increasingly erratic public pronouncements. A few days ago, he said that the people would have to decide between their elected representatives and having a dictatorship and he was seemingly blistering in his criticism of the military. On December 26, he appeared to make something of a retreat from his earlier statements, saying that generals are not fired in the midst of war. He also praised Army Chief Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani as a supporter of democracy and denied the existence of any tensions between the government and the military. Strange though it may be that Gilani is now scotching rumours that he himself ignited, it may actually be good news for the government that he now considers being conciliatory to be the best course of action.
Gilani’s earlier public statements, cathartic though they may have been, signalled the last stand of a desperate government that knew its time was up. The magnanimity the prime minister is now showing to the military could be a hint that that the army now realises that the PPP is not going to give up without putting up a fight. And even though both Kayani and ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha may not be removed from office, that does not mean the government is caving in. In an affidavit submitted to the Supreme Court in the memogate case, the federal government has criticised Pasha for reporting on his meeting with Mansoor Ijaz to Kayani rather than Gilani.
As fretful as the last few weeks have been for well-wishers of democracy, this very public fight between the civilian representatives and the military may end up being the best thing that happened to Pakistan. The people have clearly shown that no matter how much they dislike this current set-up, they are in no mood for an overt coup. For once, the army has been challenged on its wielding unbridled power in the country. Everyone thought the civilians would roll over but they have proved up to the fight. This does not mean that the military, most likely with an assist from the Supreme Court, won’t end up removing Asif Zardari as president. But the government has made it substantially harder for the military to get its way this time.
Beyond the Salala probe
December 28th, 2011
The tense debate between Islamabad and Washington after the Salala tragedy of November 26, in which the Pakistan Army lost around two dozen of its officers and men in the worst-recorded incident of cross-border operations-induced fatalities since the beginning of US-led military operations in Afghanistan a decade ago, seem to be gaining some closure. However, there are lessons to be learnt in the latest developments — the most critical among them regarding the increasing gap of trust between Pakistani, Afghan and Nato/Isaf forces deployed in the region.
The US military’s report on Salala, made public after more than a month of investigations which received no input from an angry Pakistani military, appears to verify certain facts that the Pakistanis had said on the tragedy. It also makes some worrying revelations about gaps in Nato/Isaf’s operational and command structure. For instance, after receiving a message from the Pakistani side to cease fire, a Nato officer delayed notifying a senior commander by 45 minutes. There is also a new disclosure that a US AC-130 gunship flew two miles into Pakistani airspace to target local troops and this cannot possibly be considered to support the US military’s claims of using ‘appropriate force’. However, the report fails to confirm the Pakistani military’s position that its troops did not engage US/Afghan forces across the border first — and that may remain a point of tension.
While immediately implementing the corrective actions recommended in its own report, the US should continue to engage the Pakistani military, especially in Nato/Isaf’s tactical, operational and strategic plans till 2014 and after. The coalition forces will surely be gone one day. But Pakistan will continue to be a source of potential stability or instability in the region, depending on how the next few years go. It would thus be best for the US to consider Pakistan an equal stakeholder in this region and support it to make the right choices.
India-Pakistan CBMs
December 28th, 2011
The Pakistan-India peace process is slowly inching forward with officials from both countries holding talks in Islamabad to discuss confidence-building measures (CBMs) on conventional and nuclear matters. Some of the proposals that may be adopted give hope that the two sides are ready for peace. Among the suggestions being floated is one regarding the repatriation of people who accidentally cross the border and the demilitarisation of the Line of Control. The former proposal is an important one to consider since the indefinite imprisonment of fishermen who accidentally cross unmarked maritime borders is one of the greatest tragedies of the conflict between the two countries. The latter proposal is equally vital since the removal of weaponry on both sides of the border would be the first step towards an eventual resolution of the Kashmir conflict.
India is likely to once again ask Pakistan to join it in agreeing to a no-first-use policy with regard to nuclear weapons. This was an issue that former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, now with the PTI, railed against at his party’s rally in Karachi. Hyper-nationalists like Qureshi should be ignored. Pledging not to be the first country to use nuclear weapons does not hamper our nuclear capability; it simply acknowledges that the effects of a nuclear strike would be so horrific that neither country should contemplate using it even in case of war.
The talks over the CBMs are important not just for what they might achieve on their own but because they reflect a continuation of the resumption of the peace process since Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar visited New Delhi. Since then, the two countries have vowed to increase cross-border trade, Pakistan has granted most-favoured economic status to India and promises have been made to simplify the visa process. Ensuring that this thaw continues should be a priority of both countries to show that they have moved beyond the mistrust caused by the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.