Even though Pakistan, Afghanistan’s key neighbour and a foremost player in the war on terror, did not participate in the Bonn II Conference, the international community pledged its long-term commitment to Afghanistan. However, the absence of the Taliban and its alleged backer — Pakistan — was felt greatly. Pakistan is believed to have been helping insurgents in Afghanistan and is considered a crucial part of the Afghan conflict.

Nonetheless, their nonappearance did not stop the US and its allies from assuring continued financial aid for Afghanistan after 2014, the year many NATO member countries’ combat soldiers will leave the war-torn country. The US has stated that its troops will only work as military trainers post-2014, a time when Afghanistan is supposed to have around 350,000 army and police personnel.

There are several concerns about this plan though. Many issues have to be solved before handing over the full range of responsibilities to the Afghans. First of all, there is a vital need for speeding up peace talks with the Taliban and other armed Afghan groups. For this purpose, the Afghan authorities have asked for international support. Former key Taliban members such as Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef and Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil along with other experts have numerously stated in the media that the Taliban need to have a political office and visible address where they can be reached for talks. For this purpose and to make things go smoothly, Afghan officials recently named Saudi Arabia or Turkey as the ideal countries for a Taliban liaison office. Considering their neighbours’ pivotal role in ending the 10 long years of devastating insurgency, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has stressed Pakistan’s support.

So what will Afghanistan look like after 2014 when the foreign troops have left the country? It is as simple as this: if Afghanistan reaches a peace deal with the Taliban before 2014 and overcomes the armed groups to a certain extent, the Afghan forces — despite their small number — would be able to keep their country secure. The Taliban confirmation of willingness to have a political office in Qatar seems a huge success and the first real step forward in a potential political settlement. However, if this major breakthrough is not explored further and does not end the insurgency, Afghanistan will remain as vulnerable as it is. As a result, the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police will be an easy target for the Taliban. In other words, the Afghan troops will not be able to defend themselves against terrorist attacks. To assure some success in persuading the insurgents to lay down their weapons, the US has to somehow force Pakistan to stop helping Afghan armed groups and ‘allow’ them to participate in negotiations.

Even if peace talks prevail and Afghanistan reaches the goal of having 350,000 national security forces, concerns over its finances will remain. The Guardian reported that Afghanistan estimates it will need outside contributions of roughly $ 10 billion for defence expenses. According to the World Bank, Afghanistan’s current GDP is $ 17 billion. Although Afghanistan is planning to expand mining and agriculture and increase exports to increase its income, looking at the incapability of Afghanistan’s financial management, that goal is hard to achieve. Many fear that corruption in Afghanistan will spread wider after 2014 when there will be less accountability due to the reduced presence of the international community. That means Afghanistan will not be able to keep up economic growth and therefore will have to rely on foreign aid. For that reason, Afghanistan’s allies have to focus on political and governance reforms to expand the Afghan economy.

Many Afghans believe that the 2014 US exit strategy is premature. American withdrawal means leaving Afghanistan at the mercy of its antagonistic neighbours. In such a case, Pakistan will support the Taliban. Afghanistan could once again turn into a place where terrorists can have safe havens and host al Qaeda. I am sure this is not what the Americans or any other nation would desire to get as the end result to a decade-long war against terrorism. Thus, the international community must take these steps before leaving: train the Afghan security forces that can counter insurgency, boost regional cooperation and reach for a fruitful political settlement with Afghanistan’s armed groups.

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