March 22, 2012
Zafar Hilaly

There is a lot of hype about sorting out the military, the politicians and some others to set Pakistan on the right course. But we have to be careful about that because if we start hacking at each other in typical feudal/tribal style we are much too brittle to emerge out of it in one piece. Whether we like it or not, we know from our past that a lot of damage can be done if the military is driven up the wall or painted into a corner. Even the judiciary won’t be able to hold us together; nor can it run the country by issuing edicts.

Kayani has already pointed out, in so many words, that the kind of criticism levelled against the military by the media, politicians and civil society is grossly unfair and highly counterproductive. He stopped short of saying it was intolerable but his meaning was clear.

Hence, much as we would like to see the military being sorted out for continuously interfering in politics and lying about it, one can only hope that the judiciary will handle the problem tactfully with that aspect in mind. If we are to successfully make the transition to a more stable future, we cannot hope to do so by settling old scores in a manner that will do more harm than good. The establishment and the politicos have been damaged enough in terms of their stature and standing. There is no further elasticity left in this rubber band and any more stretch may cause it to snap with disastrous results.

The important thing now is to focus on the forthcoming election because our future may well depend on its failure or success. Imran Khan and his party the PTI are about the only way out at this juncture but only if they can elevate themselves above the party fray. They have the educated middle class mainly from the Punjab, and that could be a beginning. The big question mark is Imran’s capacity to handle complex matters. Does he have the noose to run the affairs of the state and sufficient knowledge of statecraft to pull it off? Few think he does; and he will not have the luxury of acquiring on the job training because we are in desperate straits and Imran Khan will have to hit the ground running.

As for the PPP it is a jaded bunch. Some would say the same about the PML-N but that would be unfair. Nawaz Sharif, like BB did, seems to have learnt from his years in exile and more so from his sojourn in the country since his return. He seems to have mellowed and there is far less of the shooting from the hip and running off at the mouth for which he was notorious (which sadly is more than can be said for his brother). He knows where the political potholes are and how to avoid them and sensibly offered his cooperation to the government when that was needed for the greater good. Most of all he was right in thinking that given enough rope, and a full term in office, Zardari would hang himself which he has done. But all that is still not enough to convince many of us that Nawaz will prove his critics wrong on the third try when he failed on two earlier occasions.

Another assumption is that the religious parties won’t matter much because they are more Neanderthal, genetically being incapable of moving beyond their medieval mindset. And the MQM can be co-opted on a middle class platform. The chances of this are good because the MQM have not only proved flexible but also ambidextrous, nay double-jointed, when it comes to gaining a share of power.

So it is better to focus on Imran Khan and the PTI right now and get them to understand the gravity of the situation and the role they can play to get us out of the horrible mess. Of course, if that too proves to be a false dawn, like so many previous false dawns, then we are through and all bets are off. But that seems to be our only way out at this critical juncture – not the settling of old scores and dragging each other down into a quagmire.

Imran Khan and the PTI must know that even if they win handsomely, which is far from certain, they would still have to work with the PPP, PML-N et al. So they should bear that in mind. Otherwise they will only play into the hands of an establishment that reeks of mediocrity and cannot think beyond its old world paradigm. Nor can the establishment on their own or with their lotas manage the country anymore.

The twelve months ahead therefore could prove critical for Pakistan and not just because of the ongoing scandals that have been so revealing of the excesses of our political and military elite but also because the next election is less than a year ahead. If it proves to a cleaner one, it could make a big difference or at least it may mark the end of that old discredited era which began with the ISI manipulated elections.

The context is changing. Younger voters could make a bigger impact than they have any time in the past, having stayed away in previous elections. Hopefully women too will turn out in larger numbers. So the overall turn out could rise well above the lacklustre participation in previous elections. For example, the PML-N’s so-called heavy mandate was based on an overall voter turnout of less than 40 percent of the voting population even after counting bogus votes!

Security will be a problem if the Taliban are out to scare women from turning up at the polling booths but there is time to take better security precautions than was the case under Musharraf when the establishment was up to its old tricks. We had better focus on such things than to carry on with the familiar drama based on an old, out-dated and discredited script.

Imran Khan and the PTI should take the lead on this. A cleaner election with a high voter turnout is so important and also so much in their interest. But they must not pursue a zero sum game with their mainstream opponents. The umbilical cord with our sordid past must be broken. Indeed a cleaner election with a high voter turnout will enable the politicos to keep the errant establishment firmly in check if they can keep their own differences within manageable limits. That itself would be a game changer. So instead of a brutal mixed martial arts contest, captain Imran Khan and his PTI team should be playing and encouraging a more civilised game. No one individual (however popular) or institution (however powerful) can govern present day Pakistan.

So the forthcoming election should be one which starts a new process rather than degenerate yet again into a do-or-die thing for all sides. This is especially for Imran Khan and the PTI if they are really serious about the country which many inside and outside have nearly written off as a lost cause but which we know is more resilient than that.

What is encouraging is that everyone, including the jihadists, stage their biggest rallies at Jinnah’s mazar, although such antics by the jihadists must inflict unbearable torture on Jinnah’s soul. After all if we have any political role model it is Jinnah and if we have any native ideological role model we have Iqbal, and if we need any critical role models which we do desperately we have got them or, at least, we had till we ditched them. Imran Khan has spoken forthrightly about Jinnah’s Pakistan. That could be our beginning finally. Otherwise we are lost.

The writer is a former ambassador. Email: charles123it@hotmail.com
-The News