Raza Khan

After the conviction of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani by the Supreme Court of Pakistan for contempt of court, for shunning its orders and ridiculing the apex court decisions, the political atmosphere in the country has changed a great deal.

The change is as welcome as a breath of fresh air for some while unacceptable to others, although there is no doubt that by invoking Article 63. 1 (G) of the Constitution while convicting Prime Minister Gillani, the latter has been disqualified from holding public office or being a public representative.

Now, it is up to Pakistan People's Party’s (PPP) high command to decide what course it will take after the disqualification of its prime minister. The only option with the party seems to be to bring a new prime minister, but this may not be a cakewalk either.

The reason is that the PPP does not have a simple majority in the National Assembly. Even with its core allies, including the Awami National Party (ANP) or, to a certain extent, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the PPP is well short of a majority of 171 National Assembly votes in a house of 342. Already the MQM seemed to be ambivalent when its leader Haider Abbas Rizvi told journalists, after the prime minister's conviction, that for his party on the one hand is the respect of judiciary and on the other hand consolidating democracy.

This is a meaningful statement. The Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) joined the PPP government for the very personal reason of saving the skin of Moonis Elahi in a corruption scandal. As the PPP government played a significant role in making a case against Moonis Elahi and then used it as an arm-twisting tactic to bring the PML-Q into the ruling coalition fold, the latter may take the opportunity by the forelock to get out of this blackmailing.
However, by joining the government, the PML-Q also saved the party from total disappearing as perks and privileges of the government kept many parliamentarians of PML-Q hanging around its leaders, the Chaudhris of Gujrat.
Sensing the situation slipping out of the hands of the PPP, the parliamentarians from FATA may also bid adieu to the government pulling the rug from under the feet of the government. Moreover, if the government decides to defy the Supreme Court and Prime Minister Gillani continues to serve as prime minister, in this way he would not have any locus standi and his executive actions deemed devoid of legality.

Such a stand by the government would create a legal-constitutional crisis. In such a scenario, the Supreme Court's orders would be violated; therefore, under the constitution, the judges of the SCP can ask the executive authority of the state to come to its assistance to enforce its decisions. It may be mentioned that the military is part of this executive authority of the state and thus bound to come to the assistance of the Supreme Court to enforce its decisions. Keeping in view the history of Pakistan, in which the Army has always acted as a final arbiter to determine the rulership of the country, history may repeat itself.

However, much would depend upon the opposition parties that how they act in this extraordinary situation in which the chief executive of the country has been convicted and no more has de jure powers. There is a possibility that Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) would resign from the National Assembly to use the constitutional and political crisis to its advantage. If the PML-N acts in such a manner, the situation would go absolutely out of the PPP's hand and the party would not be able to keep its government afloat.

The PML-N has the support of around 90 MNAs and if they resign en masse it would be impossible to hold bye-elections on such a large number of seats when the existing parliament is a few months from completing its five-year term. The PML-N, if it decides not to leave the NA, the PPP may get a lease of life and may be able to complete its tenure. According to a KP minister belonging to the PPP, who wished not to be named, the party high command wants to hold elections in March next year and not before that. It means that the party would like to complete its constitutional tenure.

However, the most important question is what PML-N would gain if the PPP is able to complete its tenure? The party will gain something. For instance, the PML-N government in the Punjab would also be simultaneously completing its tenure. This will give political advantages to the party. On the other hand, the PML-N would also gain applause from democratic quarters for not playing any role in derailing democracy.

But the situation would be very perilous for the PML-N. By not delivering a final blow to the PPP government the PML-N would also lose its credibility and there is a possibility that it would lose more of its political constituency to the rising Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Because as long as the PPP rules and there are no fresh elections, the PTI would get more time to reorganize the party, which it is currently doing. Late elections suit both the PPP and PTI, but not the PML-N. For the PPP, late elections means an opportunity to give more government jobs, initiate more developmental schemes and announce more concessions and relief to the public in the final months of its rule, which has been unprecedented for bad governance and inflation.

The PTI has already announced to launch a Long-March if the PPP defies the SCP conviction of the prime minister in the contempt case. If the PML-N does not resign from the NA, the PTI Long March is more likely. Given the current popularity level of the PTI and the unpopularity of the government, and general dissatisfaction within the masses, any future PTI Long March could gather a lot of steam. This would further boost the prospects of the PTI to win the next elections. For this very reason, the PTI may launch a Long March. So the coming weeks and months are full of uncertainty and peril, but hopefully democracy and the system would not become the victim of petty political interests.

-Cuttingedge