May 23, 2012
Harsh V. Pant

President Barack Obama’s dramatic arrival in Kabul aboard Air Force One under the cover of darkness was fitting finale to the cloak-and-dagger operation that eliminated Osama bin Laden a year earlier.

The trip also marked a symbolic beginning of the end of American intervention in Afghanistan that was occasioned by bin Laden’s daring 2001 assault on the US. Obama offered clarification of the US aim in coming years as troops withdraw, opening the door to regional powers playing a role.

During the brief visit the US and Afghanistan signed the much-awaited strategic partnership agreement, which stipulates that the Afghan security forces take the lead in combat operations by the end of next year and US troops withdraw by the end of 2014. The pact underscores America’s commitment to Afghanistan for a decade as American trainers would continue to assist Afghan forces. A contingent of troops tasked with combating Al Qaeda through counterterrorism operations, too, will remain. Though specific details are yet to be finalised, the agreement provides needed clarity about America’s intended footprint in Afghanistan over the next decade. There’s been growing concern in sections of the policy communities in Washington, Kabul and New Delhi about an abrupt end to American security commitment in Afghanistan.

The US has made it clear that it seeks “an enduring partnership with Afghanistan that strengthens Afghan sovereignty, stability and prosperity and that contributes to our shared goal of defeating Al Qaeda and its extremist affiliates.” It’s towards that end that the latest pact underscores the ongoing American role in bolstering Afghan democracy and civil society and pledges US financial support to Afghanistan through 2024. Though it’s not evident how vague US reassurances will get translated into operational policy, Washington has sent a clear signal that it won’t abandon Afghanistan and will retain a presence in the region’s evolving strategic realities.

Afghanistan’s national security adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta described the pact as “providing a strong foundation for the security of Afghanistan, the region and the world, and is a document for the development of the region.” Of course, he’s right in so far as this pact removes the ambiguity surrounding America’s post-2014 posture in Afghanistan, not only for Kabul but also for New Delhi where there’s been growing concern about implications for regional stability after American withdrawal.

This is also a signal to the Taleban and other extremist groups that waiting out American forces might no longer be as credible an option as it may have once seemed. Washington’s new message will have particular resonance in India and Pakistan as ties between the two South Asian neighbours remain the most important fault line in shaping Afghanistan’s future.

As Washington and Kabul turn a new page in the Afghanistan saga, New Delhi should be keen to take this opportunity to become a more credible actor in its neighbourhood. Washington has played its hand. It’s up to New Delhi to respond adequately.
Harsh V. Pant teaches in King’s College, London

© 2012 Yale Center for the Study of Globalisation