Last ditch politics by Najam Sethi

As the PPP regime nears the end of its five-year term, attention is focused on the transition to free and fair general elections. A pre-requisite is the selection of a politically neutral prime minister and provincial governors to head caretaker governments at the centre and in the provinces for four months. But conspiracy theories to postpone the general elections on one pretext or the other remain in currency. In particular, the opposition continues to make determined efforts to dislodge or discomfort President Asif Zardari so that he cannot rig the elections in any way. Several last-ditch decisions will keep everyone on edge.

The process of consultations between the government and opposition to nominate a caretaker prime minister has started behind the scenes. The PMLN has leaked some names to test the waters but the PPP is playing its hand close to its chest. The opposition has got the upper hand since its nominee for the post of Chief Election Commission, Justice (Retd) Fakhruddin G Ibrahim, was appointed last month. If there is no agreement, the law enables the five-member Election Commission to nominate the prime minister. So we may expect much wrangling until the last minute.

Meanwhile, the tussle between the PPP government and judiciary continues unabated. The Supreme Court has given one last chance to the new prime minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf, to write a letter to the Swiss authorities to reopen the money laundering case against Mr Zardari or face disqualification from parliament like his predecessor for disobeying the court's order. The judges are inclined to accept the argument that Mr Zardari enjoys immunity from prosecution at home and abroad as long as he is President and may accept a new letter that simply cancels an earlier letter in 2008 by the Musharraf regime closing the case, thereby enabling the Swiss government to determine if, how and when to proceed against Mr Zardari. The law minister, Farooq Naik, who is also Mr Zardari's council in the Swiss case, is in favour of writing a carefully worded letter that lets the prime minister off the hook with the SC without jeopardizing the president with the Swiss. He thinks that the matter will be time barred sometime in September, so there is no danger to Mr Zardari. But PPP hardliners led by Mr Zardari don't want to give in to the SC. Renewed martyrdom suits the party's election prospects with die-hard supporters. The loss of a second prime minister at the hands of a "biased SC" is billed as a blessing in disguise. Therefore the government will try and drag the case and make a last-ditch decision only when there is no way out.

In a new development, a contempt case against Mr Zardari for holding two offices simultaneously - President of Pakistan and Co-Chair of the PPP - is all set for hearing in the Lahore High Court. It will hinge on questions of law: whether or not the President of Pakistan is liable to contempt proceedings and, if he is, whether or not he has committed contempt by not fulfilling the court's "expectation" that he shall give up one office. Once again, the PPP will offer stiff resistance. Indeed, the more the courts entertain petitions against the PPP, the more the PPP's martyrdom credentials will be strengthened.

Meanwhile, conspiracy theories about postponement of elections and derailment of democracy refuse to die. Yousaf Raza Gillani insists that the military, in cahoots with the judiciary, is planning to bypass the general elections on some "emergency" pretext and hijack the political process by installing a medium-term government of technocrats. Pir Pagara, who claims to be close to the military, says the same thing. Certainly, given the prickly state of Pakistan's relations with the US and India, plus the heightened terrorist environment in the country, "anything" can happen. A Pakistani military clash with NATO in Waziristan because of anti-American provocations by the Haqqani network (like the Salala incident), or some unilateral action by US Marines on Pakistani soil in pursuit of Mullah Umar or Ayman Al-Zawahiri (in the fashion of the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden) or severe tensions with India because of some Pakistan-based terrorist attack on Indian soil (like Mumbai in 2008), or the assassination of some big political leader (like Benazir Bhutto) that casts a dark shadow over the democratic process, can be flogged as sufficient reason to declare a state of Emergency and try to hijack the political process during the interim-caretaker administration.

Democracy is still weak. Institutions like the judiciary, media and military are in the throes of assessing one another's role in defining a new Pakistan. Old paradigms have become unworkable. But new ones are not even on the drawing board. The world in general and the region in particular is crying out for moderation and tolerance in Pakistan. Pakistanis want stable politics, robust law and order and rapid economic growth. Where are leaders and institutions of courage and vision to provide solutions?

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