Army and polls
November 21, 2012
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is beginning to look suspiciously like it may be inclined to fulfil its mandate, move out of the political boxes that have constrained it for years, and make an effort to ensure that the next elections are as free and fair as may be possible. Not unnaturally the government is seen to be uneasy, despite protestations to the contrary made by Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf on Monday. Agencies such as the ECP, which display signs of independence, integrity even, are never going to allow heads more attuned to bending the rules than keeping them to sleep easy. Having got the support of the judiciary that has agreed to provide the services of judicial officers acting as district returning officers in the next elections, the ECP is now turning to the Pakistan Army and other law and order forces for help. Some may see a certain irony in seeking army assistance in the consolidation of a democratic process. Yet, given the precarious security situation which prevails across much of the country and the political situation that points to the possibility of the coming elections becoming more violent than polls in the past have been, this sounds more like common sense. Reposing trust in the military vis-à-vis the electoral process could also been seen as an indicator that we have moved on and that the army may be called on in support of the civil power rather than as a replacement for it.
It is also apparent that the ECP is not entirely trusting of the presidency in terms of it being able to maintain a non-partisan position electorally, standing above the process in a position of neutrality. That these concerns existed is evidenced by the necessity to place the position of the president on the code of conduct that details those who cannot, indeed must not, participate in the electoral process on a party-political basis. It is not enough just to complete a full term in office; democracy is more than a simple matter of longevity. Other attributes go with the democratic mantle, with transparency and freedom from corruption being two of those. Pakistan is so mired in the ‘Slough of Despond’ that there is no quick fix. Fully-formed democratic processes and institutions are going to take time to consolidate and see a range of political parties having held power. Democracy is a collaborative effort. The ECP is making the right moves and sending out the right signals. The army and other civilian agencies of law and order and the judiciary all have a part to play in this venture into democracy-building – in spite of, rather than because of, the way in which some of Pakistan’s politicians would like matters to be handled.
Narrow escape
November 21, 2012
The former chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, narrowly escaped death, after a suicide bomber, apparently a woman, detonated her suicide belt as his convoy passed through Haleemzai Tehsil in Mohmand Agency on Monday, where the former JI leader was inaugurating his party’s office. While the windshield of his vehicle was shattered, Qazi himself escaped unhurt. The political agent for Mohmand said that ‘foolproof’ security measures had been put in place, but due to cultural norms a woman could not be frisked. This factor of course means women or, as has happened in the past, men wearing ‘burqas’ make potentially lethal bombers.
Going beyond the issues of security, the question of course arises of who targeted Qazi. Conjecture has been coming in as quickly as the condemnations, with political leaders across the country lashing out against those who tried to kill the ex-JI chief. Talking to the media soon after the incident, Qazi Hussain Ahmad himself insisted that no ‘religious’ group would target him, and blamed militant violence primarily on pro-US government policies. This can safely be put aside as everyday politics. However, other opinions also exist. Experts find the attack very ‘Taliban-like’ in nature. A media report has suggested that Mohmand Agency’s Tehreek-e-Taliban chief may have been behind the attack, for Qazi is said to have been on the TTP’s hit list after stating in an interview a few months back that the ‘Afghan Taliban were engaged in jihad while their Pakistani counterparts were not.’ The entanglements of extremism are complex so it may still be too early to say who was behind the attack. For now all that can be said is that Qazi Sahib is lucky to have escaped unhurt.
Obama in Asia
November 21, 2012
The American ‘pivot’ towards the east and the Pacific region continues to gather form and traction, and the Obama visit to Thailand and Myanmar (Burma) are loaded with significance. The US and Thailand have a strong relationship going back decades, and the Obama visit to Bangkok was to do little more than reaffirm a pre-existing bilateral partnership. The US is Thailand’s second-largest trading partner after Japan, and the American inwards investment is estimated at $21 billion. The issue both face and will further collaborate on is drug trafficking. Both countries have cooperated in ‘the war of terror’ and the Obama visit is probably also aimed at adding a little counterweight to the Chinese influence in the region.
Myanmar is a different kettle. For decades Myanmar has been a pariah state, virtually excluded from the comity of nations in part by its own choice but in larger part at the rejection by a wider world of its totalitarian military regime that has suppressed democracy and stifled protest. But it is seen now as coming in from the cold and the process which has seen the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the inclusion of opposition parties in parliament after recent by-elections bodes well. The changes are not, as some claim, irreversible and it is conceivable that Myanmar would get cold feet and withdraw again. Obama has made it plain that he views Myanmar as a ‘work in progress’ rather than a finished job. The rapid changes of the last two years have lowered but not eliminated the levels of brutality used by the regime that is still run in the background by the military. Myanmar is host to one of the most pressing of humanitarian problems faced by the world today – the plight of the Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State, a people generally regarded as the most discriminated against in the world. Obama spoke in Rangoon for 30 minutes, focusing mostly on his vision of a prosperous and democratic Myanmar. The ties between the USA and the ASEAN states are going to come closer to the fore, and the struggle between America and China for regional influence may now be well and truly joined.