A breakthrough at last?


THE meeting between the ambassadors of Iran and the US in Baghdad on Monday could well be the turning point that chroniclers often look for when they write the history of nations. After 27 years of stand-off when they refused to have any contact between themselves or enter into a dialogue to resolve problems, the two governments have finally decided to open lines of communication. This move has naturally been welcomed by the world community, especially at a time when Iraq has emerged as a major flashpoint in the Middle East. Monday’s meeting is a tacit admission by the Bush administration, which created the crisis by invading that unhappy country, that it cannot bring peace to the region singlehandedly. Given Iran’s influence in Iraq — Tehran is accused of arming militant elements to retain its hold on the Shia-dominated southern regions — it has now been recognised that no settlement of the Iraqi crisis is possible without Iran’s cooperation. Of course, the talks held at the behest of the Iraqi prime minister have not found the key to a solution. Neither were they expected to. But they have opened the door for a dialogue which, hopefully, will be initiated in the next few weeks. As had been decided before the two sides met, the talks were confined to the violence in Iraq, which it is felt can be controlled if Iran decides to play a positive role in the region. Thus the Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who derives his strength from Iran where he is also believed to seek sanctuary in times of need, has of late exercised restraint in his military activities. He has also expressed his willingness to work with Prime Minister al-Maliki for stability in Iraq. Against this backdrop, the Baghdad meeting was of considerable significance. The two sides traded allegations and counter-allegations but they also exchanged ideas, the most important of which was the establishment of a trilateral security mechanism comprising Iran, Iraq and the US. Although this panel has not been formally announced, the Iraqi press has reported that it will be meeting within a month. If progress is made in this direction, this can be regarded as a breakthrough which could be the beginning of a phase that could see Iraq being durably pacified and eventual American troop withdrawal from that country.

Many hopes are pinned on the Baghdad talks which, it is hoped, will lead to a détente coming in the wake of the opening of a communication line between the two countries which have kept the world on tenterhooks. Since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979 — that was followed by the hostages crisis — relations between Washington and Tehran have remained frozen, even though the Islamic revolutionary government managed to normalise its ties with the Europeans and other western powers. This led to a state of imbalance in international politics, given that Iran is a major power in the region and the United States is a superpower with high stakes in the Middle East. Iraq has not been the only bone of contention. A controversy on Iran’s programme of uranium enrichment has also created a serious crisis with the world holding its breath as Washington has kept it guessing whether it is set to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. This issue was not discussed in Baghdad but may well be taken up now that the ice has been broken.