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mtgondal · #2 Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Contours of European politics

by Ansar Mahmood Bhatti

European politics was not that much unpredictable as it is these days, especially after the change of governments in countries such as Italy, Britain, Germany and now France. The new Italian government under Prime Minister Romano Prodi appears to be different from the previous outfit that was led by a business and media tycoon, Silvio Berlusconi, who perhaps had to pay the price for being a close ally of the US. His downfall was quite eminent as he had gone the extra mile in his pursuit of harnessing stronger ties with Washington. The way Mr. Berlusconi had sided with President Bush and tried to split the fellow European countries on that very issue was not welcomed by the Italian public and the leading EU countries. Berlusconi’s fate was in fact sealed the day he had decided to plunge his country into the war against Iraq by contributing troops to the allied forces. Romano Prodi, a former EU Commission chief and professor by profession, banked heavily on this faux pas and at the end of the day was able to dislodge Berlusconi from the premiership, though with a razor-thin majority.

In Britain, the winds of change have already started blowing with Gordon Brown set to take charge of the highest office. Blair and Bush together inflicted colossal damage on the international community by their totalitarian stance and despotic polices. Blair would be remembered for widespread killings in Iraq on the pretext of war against terror, a factor that has overshadowed his domestic achievements. Nevertheless, the change of guard in the UK would hardly make any difference in terms of Britain’s Iraq policy or, for that matter, any straining of relations between London and Washington because of immense proximity both countries have been enjoying since long. Secondly, their relations are structured through a common ideology of protecting each other’s national interests.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel flew directly to Washington soon after replacing Gerhard Schroeder as the chancellor that showed which way the wind would blow in terms of relations between the two countries. Chancellor Merkel was tough on issues like the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and expressed her desire for winding it up. It was a call that fell flat on the White House, yet on other issues both sides had complete unanimity. As compared to her predecessor, Angela Merkel looks more inclined towards the US, suggesting some revolutionary changes in Europe’s overall policy towards the superpower and determining new dimensions of transatlantic relations. The recently held presidential election in France brought to an end 12 years rule of Chirac. Another party man, and a former interior minister with a different mindset and credentials, Nicolas Sarkozy, took charge of the Elysee Palace.

The transition process, as suggested by the French Ambassador in Pakistan, Mr Ragis de Belenet, would be completed when the general elections are complete. “The turnout was high, about 85 percent, highlighting the widespread interest of the population in this election. Mr Nicolas Sarkozy has been elected as the new President of the French Republic for a five-year mandate with 53 percent of the votes against 47 percent for this opponent, Mrs Royal. The electoral process is not completed. In June the National Assembly elections will take place. We have to wait for the results of those elections to have a full picture of the political situation,” he said.

Nicolas Sarkozy, after assuming the office of the president, said: “The French people have opted for a change. I shall be implementing this change because this is the mandate I have received from the people and because France needs it.” The new president is likely to confront many a hard issue in the coming days, a glimpse of which we saw in the form of violent protests in the streets of Paris, partly by the supporters of Mrs Royal and partly by the immigrants, who are afraid of more stringent measures from Mr Sarkozy. Mr Sarkozy’s policy on job reforms and reduction of unemployment rate would definitely be a daunting task for the new government.

The basic challenge for France shall be in the area of external relations. France and the US are likely to fare well as Mr Sarkozy has many soft corners for Washington. “I would not follow Chirac polices” was perhaps the most emphatic way of speaking his heart out for his country’s future ties with the outer world, with particular reference to the US. President Bush wasted no time in calling up Sarkozy to congratulate him on his win in the election. Both the Republicans and the Democrats expressed their happiness over Mr Sarkozy’s victory.

Nicolas Sarkozy visited the US on September 11, 2005, on a four-day tour in which he had spoken to firefighters in Manhattan and business leaders in Wall Street. He was also invited to the White House to meet President Bush, a very rare honour for a mere minister. Nicolas Sarkozy was also against the idea of waging a war in Iraq and maintains a position of early withdrawal of the allied forces from Iraq. One has to wait for his current position on this very subject.

Mood in Ankara looked dismal and disappointing. While it was still recovering from the victory of Angela Merkel, it had another blow in the shape of Nicolas Sarkozy’s win who, like Ms Merkel, does not believe in giving the EU membership to Turkey. Analysts have divergent views on Mr Sarkozy’s opposition to Turkey, and some of them would even relate it to Mr Sarkozy being a half Greek. “I would stand firm in my opposition to Turkey being allowed to join the EU. I could not have been a candidate for the presidency with one view and then changed it having become president,” he said after his visit to the EU Commission. “I do not see the use of raising the issue of Turkey since it is not being discussed now,” said Mr Sarkozy after meeting European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso during his recent visit to Brussels.

Likewise, the process of EU constitution ratification is likely to be affected as President Sarkozy, along with Germany’s Angela Merkel, favours a slimmed down treaty. He would try to clinch an agreement on a reform treaty at the next month’s EU summit. Now that France and Germany are putting their eggs in the same basket, it is very much likely that the idea of an EU constitution might not get through and instead a simplified treaty may be adopted. The Netherlands had already rejected the draft constitution along with France in a referendum held in 2005. I personally do not see any harm even if a slimmed down draft is adopted and ratified, but the question is, where would stand those countries that have already ratified it?

With Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, Angela Merkel in Berlin, Gordon Brown in London, and a good number of Eastern European leaders on its side, the US appears to have regained an axis of friendship in Europe. This axis has the potential of changing the contours of European politics. However, only time will determine who comes out as the ultimate beneficiary at the end of the day. One thing is for sure, Europe’s integrity and cohesiveness was never ever as vulnerable as it is now.

The writer is a bilingual columnist based in Islamabad