The capture of Maulvi Faqir
February 21st, 2013
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have, for historical reasons, always been far from cordial. This mutual suspicion has been one of the biggest stumbling blocks in fighting the war against militancy. The Pakistani establishment has been a willing patron of, or at the very least turned a blind eye to the activities of, the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. Afghanistan, meanwhile, has allowed Maulana Fazlullah and the Swati Taliban to comfortably plan attacks across the border without doing anything to stop them. Now it looks that this might be changing. Afghan security forces managed to nab Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, who was a senior Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander and one of the most wanted men in the war against militancy.
Hopefully, Faqir’s capture is sign of growing cooperation between the two countries. Previously, the two countries have had to work together, usually with the US as an intermediary, now that the Americans have begun peace talks with the Taliban. Thus Pakistan has been part of the negotiations in Qatar and the release of some high-ranking Afghan Taliban members from Pakistani custody was also the likely result of these peace talks. That does not mean the two countries will continue to get along. There are fears that the Pakistani establishment may be nurturing the Afghan Taliban. If this is true, that means we are yet to give up on our so-called strategic depth policy.
There is also the possibility that Maulvi Faqir’s capture is of less significance than most think. There were reports that Faqir was banished from the TTP after he called for peace talks with the Pakistan government at a time when the TTP leadership was opposed to negotiations. If that happens to be the case, we should still be thankful that this unrepentant murderer is no longer a threat to our country. But we should also be wary of heralding a new era in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. This may, like with many previous incidents, just be a false dawn.
Changing of the guard
February 21st, 2013
Resigned or asked to leave? What now for Abdul Hafeez Shaikh? What is in store now for the economy? The last question is really the easiest to answer. Because the fact is, there really won’t be, and shouldn’t be much of an impact. It is too late in the game, and with indicators that an interim set-up could be coming in shortly, the entire cabinet was expected to be vacating parliament soon. But the other two questions are not so easy to answer. The government’s official stance is that Dr Shaikh resigned. He has refused to comment but one can assume that would be his stance as well, at least in public. But many sources in the government or close to it suggest that this was not the case. There is really no way to prove it, either way. But he is gone, and Saleem Mandviwala, the former minister of state for investment — during whose tenure foreign direct investment dropped from about $5 billion to about $1 billion — is his replacement. One can take that as a comment on his performance and subsequently, on his eligibility for this post.
So what next for Dr Shaikh? There is overwhelming unanimity in the off-the-record and anonymous tip-offs that he is going to figure in the incoming caretaker set-up. Some say he left the post of finance minister because he is going to be the government’s top choice for prime minister. Some say he is going to be chief minister of Sindh in the interim set-up. But he is not without opposition either. Many feel he is too close to the army because he served as privatisation and investment minister during General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s tenure and might face objections on these grounds.
Many feel he let the country down, economically. The rupee has hit a historic low. There are just enough foreign reserves for two months’ worth of imports. In 2008, such a situation prompted a balance of payments crisis, which only ended when the IMF offered a bailout package of $11 billion. In 2011, that programme was suspended after Dr Shaikh was unable to push through key reforms, most notably, widening Pakistan’s tax base. Of course, this failure is not his alone, but in politics, there is always a scapegoat, and some feel, this time, it was Dr Shaikh.
Opening games
February 21st, 2013
When defections begin and legislators start switching loyalties, we can say with some certainty that elections are around the corner. For most politicians, the need to win a seat and make it into the assembly takes over all else — including party loyalties — and we are now seeing this process taking place in earnest. In Punjab, there has been of late a sudden wave of defections to the PML-N. Nine PPP MPAs have switched over, along with two PML-Q MNAs. They have been accepted into the PML-N ranks, with the switchover being made in the presence of key PML-N leaders. The PPP parliamentary leadership in Punjab has already served notices to the defecting MPAs, written to the speaker and also to the Election Commission of Pakistan, seeking disqualification under Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution.
But quite beyond the legalities, the situation shows the political profile in Punjab when it comes to determining the overall outcome. It is quite clear that in the province it considers its home ground, the PML-N has an upswing, having overtaken the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf which, at one point, had shown a sudden spike in popularity. The latest defections also show that politicians on the ground are aware of where the wind blows from and are attempting to ride along the current. The growing confidence of the PML-N is, of course, one reason why it is pressing so hard for polls and backing the PPP on this — something that by good fortune works well for our democracy.
But the tide is not entirely one-sided. Powerful figures like Saif Khosa, son of senior PML-N figure Zulfikar Khosa, have switched over to the PPP. The family has a strong base in Dera Ghazi Khan. There have been other changes, too, and no doubt, more will follow. But the general trend is emerging strongly, and for now, it seems that the PML-N may be the best-placed party in Punjab, though some close battles are expected in the south of the province.