In Iranian gas we trust
By Aasim Zafar Khan

It all looks so good on paper doesn’t it? Two Islamic countries coming together, holding hands, and shaking their fists in defiance to all and sundry, saying ‘we’ll do it our way’. Couldn’t have been scripted any better, even if George Lucas of Star Wars fame was involved. Still, it’s too early to say if this movie will pass the censor board and reach the cinemas.

Consider this. Country 1 is Iran. Their back has already been broken by dilapidating sanctions by the United States, which considers Tehran to be a major threat to world peace. The United States believes that any of its allies that do business with Iran, are, well, no longer allies. Then we have Saudi Arabia, the Sunni capital of the Muslim world. Never under their watch would they let Tehran, the Shia capital of the Muslim world, take centre stage.

Country 2 is Pakistan. Ravaged by terrorism and economic doom, Pakistan is ostensibly a staunch ally of the United States in its war against terrorism. Pakistan also happens currently to be one of the highest recipients of US aid money. What happens, or doesn’t happen, with that money is not the concern here. Then there’s Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s godfather. Riyadh’s influence on Islamabad has been so strong, and so encompassing that it would be safe to assume that Pakistan is well on the road to becoming a fundamental Sunni Wahabi state, much like Saudi Arabia.

To put it mathematically, how can Pakistan, whose most influential allies are the United States and Saudi Arabia, do business with Iran, whose most staunch opponents are the United States and Saudi Arabia?

It can’t, given the geopolitics. As the sun sets on President Zardari’s government, he has, yet again, played it beautifully. By signing on the dotted line with his counterpart Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, our president has sent the message that he has finally grown a pair and is standing up to US pressure. Secondly, he has told the common Pakistani, and the industrialist and the businessman that he understands Pakistan’s gas and energy emergency, and that he’s willing to go to whatever lengths to overcome it. Not a bad message to send on the eve of general elections.

But the onus of completing this pipeline, conjuring up the money needed to finance it, and then securing it, will lie on the next government – possibly of the PML-N. Now we all know how particularly close Nawaz Sharif is to the house of Saud; after all, he spent all his years of exile in the kingdom. And as mentioned earlier, Saudi Arabia is vehemently opposed to any deal benefiting Iran. And then there’s the United States, which has made clear its displeasure on the matter and even threatened sanctions on Pakistan if it goes ahead with the pipeline. This will be unnecessary and unneeded pressure for the future government as it deals with the multitude of problems left behind by the PPP.

To be honest, these threats of sanctions don’t seem to have much bite. After all, it’s highly unlikely that the US will first slap sanctions on us and then politely ask for safe passage for their withdrawal from Afghanistan next year. It doesn’t happen like that.

What the US could do is perhaps ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) to tighten their noose on us. After all, Pakistan is alive primarily on their life support machine. On the flip side, it is also entirely possible, considering Pakistan’s history, that this is yet another ploy by Pakistan to extract more aid money from the US.

So back to the math, given the geopolitics, how can Pakistan do business with Iran? Will it do business with Iran? Or is this just politics without the realisation of gas?

Right now there are more questions than answers. The pipeline, on its own, is a no-brainer. Pakistan needs the gas and Iran, the cash. But international affairs don’t play out like that. With the United States and Saudi Arabia both involved, we are a very long way off from realising even a cubic foot of Iran’s much-coveted natural reserve.

The writer is the chief operating officer of an FM radio network and tweets @aasimzkhan

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)