March 25, 2013
Iftikhar Ahmad Yaqubi

Pak-Iran gas pipeline is the subject of hectic debates in media and foreign policy making elites these days. The point of debate is not that Iran is selling gas and Pakistan is going to buy it. Such type of business is considered to be a matter of routine between two sovereign countries.

The controversy has arisen due to the US sanctions against Iran due to the latter’s nuclear program which the former alleges is for weapons purposes while the latter denies such an objective. The sanctions allegedly prohibit foreign companies and governments from doing any kind of business with Iran. The main purpose of these sanctions is to prevent it from diverting its nuclear program to weapons purposes. The US applied tremendous pressure on Pakistan to back out from this deal with Iran. It used both carrot and stick for this purpose.

As a carrot it dangled cooperation in the field of energy and as a stick it threatened Pakistan with sanctions which would cripple its already faltering economy. But it withstood all this pressure and started construction on the pipeline on its own side.

Analysts in both Pakistan and the US fear that the construction of the gas pipeline would trigger crippling sanctions against the former by the latter. But this approach seems too much legalistic which presume that the US laws, so for as dealings with the foreign countries are concerned; apply automatically without taking note of their impact on the geo-strategic interests of their country. But if history is a guide to looking into the behavior of states, then we may presume that the US will not apply sanctions against Pakistan because by doing so it will jeopardize its own interests. Pakistan is still very important in the calculations of the American strategists. The war in Afghanistan is in final stages and Pakistan is expected to play a key role in any settlement for peace in this country.

The US wants pull out of its forces from Afghanistan by 2014 at any cost. Pakistan’s role is very crucial for any peace settlement and stability in its aftermath in Afghanistan.

Any US sanctions imposed against Pakistan will have adverse effect on the Afghan peace process and may forestall Pakistan’s support in this respect which the US cannot afford at this juncture and in the near future. The US will think twice and thrice before imposing sanctions against Pakistan at a time when they need its support for the withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan and ensuring a settlement of the issue which cater for their legitimate interests in this country.

There is another factor also which goes against the sanctions regime to be tightened against Pakistan. Any sanctions imposed against Pakistan will strangulate its already shattered economy which will leave it with no other option but to cooperate with Iran or any other country in the field of nuclear technology which may do harm to nonproliferation efforts.

So the fear that imposing sanctions against Pakistan might instead of halting Iran’s nuclear program further promote it will always haunt the Americans. And Pakistan will be justified in adopting such a course for it will feel being punished for an act which it undertook for addressing its acute energy problems. The US will also run the risk of losing an important country like Pakistan which in addition to being a nuclear power and located in a strategically vital region is and has always been ‘’ the most- allied-non-NATO-ally’’.

The drifting away of such a strategically important ally is in no way in the US interests. The Americans also understand that Pakistan is facing grave energy problems which it cannot overcome without importing gas from Iran.

The transportation of gas from Turkmenistan through pipeline remains un-materialized due to unsettled situation in Afghanistan. So Pakistan has the only option of importing it from Iran.

Pakistan should go ahead with this project. The US is unlikely to impose sanctions against it.

If it has to do it at all it will impose only nominal sanctions just to fulfill the minimum requirements of the law and at the same time to protect their strategic interests by letting Pakistan stay with it as a friend. It will not dare lose an ally for the sake of tightening noose around an enemy. It will be a strategic blunder on its part and the US is not so stupid to commit such a blunder.

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/213598/