2014 is an important year in the geo-politics of Central and South Asia. With US forces set to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban problem will be left to Afghanistan and Pakistan to sort out between themselves. But the outstanding question is: are Pakistan and Afghanistan willing to trust each other and move forward in confidence? Only two days ago, the Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Javed Ludin suggested that Kabul could pursue the peace process without Pakistan’s help. He had further alleged that Pakistan was hampering the Afghan government’s attempts to negotiate peace with the Taliban by “either killing or arresting Taliban figures willing to reconcile within Pakistan.” While the immediate questions were: what were these Taliban figures doing in Pakistan and what were their channels of communication with the Afghan government, the harsh statement from Afghanistan forced the US and UK to come in and find a bridge between the two governments. Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s visit to Qatar also comes amidst growing tension between the two neighbours. With Qatar reportedly being the Taliban’s reported choice for a diplomatic secretariat, Karzai appears to be wincing around the need to sit down and hold what could be called a ‘frank conversation’ with Pakistan over the cross-border terrorism issue that plagues relations between the two countries.

The Pakistani response to the accusations from across border has been tit-for-tat. In a briefing last week, the Pakistani Foreign Office pointed to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan safe havens in Kunar and Nooristan districts in Afghanistan. However, it has not changed its commitment to negotiations as the way forward. It has condemned diplomatic boycotts, including a recent decision by Afghanistan not to send a military delegation for a training course in Quetta, and called for the need to “promote bilateral relations and build trust.” The fact that over 26 Taliban leaders have been released by Pakistan to Afghanistan at the request of the Afghan High Peace Council is cited to reflect Pakistan’s seriousness in furthering peace in Afghanisation. If nothing, perhaps both sides realize now, that the decade-long war against the Taliban is failing on the battleground, and the negotiating table may be the final hope for this apparently unending battle.

Recently, Pakistan too has begun to follow the ‘negotiate with the Taliban’ card, but with little success. The fact that the Taliban is not a simple entity with a defined leadership structure is an important factor in these talks failing. But there is little that the governments of these two countries can hope for other than individual Taliban groups switching their sway. For this process to yield results: Pakistan and Afghanistan need to be on board. Karzai is wrong and shall be proven so if he moves ahead on accords with the Taliban without involving Pakistan.

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