Historically speaking, the Super Powers have always remained under immense nuclear threats than any other nuclear or non-nuclear state. During the Cold War era in a bipolar world, the Super Powers as well as their allies were very prone to nuclear catastrophe.

The world was once really on the brink of nuclear warfare when both the Super Powers (United States and the Soviet Union) indulged in very ambiguous moves like that of the Cuban Missile Crisis- also well known as the October Crisis of 1962. The Soviet’s Cuban Missile deployment provoked the US side to seek a counter retaliation option. Such steps were very first occurrence of the threat of mutual assured destruction (MAD) in the international realm which could easily lead to the failure of deterrence and consequently a nuclear warfare due to miscalculations and mis-perception.

But thanks to the maintenance of balance of terror that both Super Powers realized the importance of creating a Hot Line amongst heads of states to prevent any ambiguity and misconception that could lead to an accidental nuclear warfare. In the aftermath, Confidence Building Measure (CBMs) were taken to end the 14 days long October Crisis and ultimately, the Kennedy administration also ordered the removal of PGM-19 Jupiter ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads deployed in Turkey and Italy.

Applying the aforementioned discussion in India-Pakistan relations, the South Asian region’s nuclear threshold had also escalated in the reaction of 13th December 2001 attacks on the Indian Parliament. The attack was perceived as a sole threat to the very Indian sovereignty. India blamed Pakistan for sponsoring the terrorist attacks and consequently, in the month of December 2001, both India and Pakistan moved their ballistic missiles with 500,000 and 300,000 troops respectively along with the Line of Control (LOC). That was a major military standoff in the prolonged hostile history of both belligerent countries as both states had already tested their nuclear devices in 1998.

The Indian leadership asked its armed forces to prepare to wage a “decisive battle” against the enemy. The Pakistani President General Pervaiz Musharaf also threatened the Indian side for using all strategic means and Pakistan could launch a nuclear strike on India within eight-seconds even if a single Indian soldier dared to cross the LOC. There was a possibility of an outbreak of a nuclear warfare thus, the global policeman-the US intervened and the President Bill Clinton declared the South Asian region a Nuclear Flashpoint. The avoidance of nuclear war only became possible due to the maintenance of deterrence and pressure from the international community on both the states.

The Sole Superpowers of the World has once again reached on a level of threshold of nuclear confrontation with a newly nuclearized nation led by a young leader Kim Jong-un. Both states have not enjoyed much benign relations. The US and the North Korean relationship further started deteriorating due to the North’s nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and particularly in February 2013 when the United Nations put stricter sanctions for its nuclear tests. And the US proclaims for isolating the North Korean State in international arena due to the ongoing confrontation. Both the states do not have a good history of benign relations as Sweden works as a protecting power which serves the US interests in the North Korea because both the states also do not have any diplomatic relations.

The North Korea has accused the US of deliberately pushing it towards a situation of nuclear warfare. Smaller or bigger, but all the nuclear weapon states know very well that they have to maintain a certain level of minimum credible nuclear deterrence to avoid any Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD).
The deterrence is a key to nuclear diplomacy where states always have to seek a variety of ways to maintain the balance of terror on either side.

The young leader very clearly conveyed a threat for launching a pre-emptive strike against the US; a doctrine that was set by the Bush administration “to destroy any threat before it destroys you.” The North Korean leadership has made it clear to the West that nuclear weapons "can never be abandoned as long as imperialists and nuclear weapons exist on Earth”, and has ordered its forces to be on standby for a “merciless nuclear attack” on aggressor- the U.S. mainland, its military bases in the Pacific region including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South Korea.” The US has also started its one of the most sophisticated anti- missile defence system of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in Guam in order to destroy and retaliate immediately according to the situation.

Believing the fact, the nuclear weapons are not weapons of fighting wars but those are to prevent wars. And achieving a certain position is much easier task than keeping it intact for a long time. And for the US policy makers most fundamental task is to keep maintain that position rather than letting the enemy know about its weaknesses if in case the deterrence fails. To avoid committing any blunder like invading Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq because in the aftermath, all states whether weaker or stronger have become familiar with the tactics how to engage a powerful state in a guerilla warfare.

The US is passing through a critical juncture in its history because it also remains under an immense menace for acquiring of nuclear capability by non-state actors more specially Al-Qaeda, Which means there would be no option for a second strike if the non-state actors after acquiring the strategic nuclear technology can launch a nuclear attack from anywhere using any state’s soil while speaking about nuclear ambitious state Iran that is far more different than the Soviet Union, North Korea and that of India. There is only one sided threat from the US to Iran for launching a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear program sites.

The author is Research Fellow in Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad

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