As the election campaign has gathered momentum despite continued terrorist attacks on certain political parties, a clear trend is emerging regarding the actual electoral battle lines.

The latest attacks have been made on Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) in Karachi, which claimed the lives of dozens of people. On the other hand, the electoral arena is on fire and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are each striving hard to convince the voters to cast their ballots in their favour.

Importantly, the Pakistan People's Party, one of the two main traditional stakeholders for political power, is hardly to be seen on the electoral front, but trying hard through the media to get the voters' attention. From observation of the electoral contests and the mood of the voters, it is now more than apparent that the May 11 general elections would largely be a contest between the PTI and the PML-N in the political heartland of the country - the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

In yet another electorally important province, Sindh, the Pakistan People's Party ostensibly seems to rule the roost and may win a majority of the national and provincial assembly seats. Nevertheless, there could be some surprises. For instance, in Karachi, the stronghold of the MQM, since the 1980s, for the first time, the party seems to be on the back foot. There are a number of reasons for that, of which the foremost is the delimitation of certain electoral constituencies of the city; cleansing of the voters lists of around 35 million bogus votes, of which the MQM had always taken advantage; the targeting of the MQM by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the absence of the establishment's patronage of the party. From this situation, both the PTI and the PML-N could take advantage. However, the former is better poised to exploit the conditions in Karachi. The reason is that apart from a political figure, PTI head, Imran Khan, has been a national hero due to his legendary cricketing career and is therefore liked in every nook and corner of the country.

Moreover, due to his belonging to the Punjab and his Pakhtoon ancestry, he could attract the votes of both the migrant communities of Karachi; whereas Khan's image of arguably the only national level leader in contemporary Pakistan could pull the huge non-parochial Urdu-speaking population of Karachi towards the PTI.

Here it is important to note that Pakhtoon voters are already frustrated due to the insensitive attitude of the Awami National Party (ANP) to their woes in Karachi; while the Punjabi community, after the dissolution of the erstwhile Punjabi-Pakhtoon Ittehad (PPI), do not have a representative body in Karachi. Karachi electorally is quite important as it has 20 National Assembly seats, while the rest of Sindh has 41 seats.

Now come to the political heartland of Pakistan. In the Punjab, the contest on most of the seats in northern and central Punjab is between the PML-N and the PTI. Whereas in southern Punjab, although the PML-N is still strong, but as the region has traditionally been a stronghold of the PPP, therefore this time the PTI seems to have replaced the PML-N as the main challenger to the PPP. In fact, a number of the PPP leaders from south Punjab have already joined the PTI. These include names like Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Ishaq Khakwani and Afzal Sindhu. Qureshi and Sindhu remained federal ministers in the outgoing PPP government. The PML-N is going to lose a lot in south Punjab due to its opposition to the vociferous and uniformly strong demand of the region of making it a separate province.

So with significant defections from the PPP to the PTI and the unpopularity of the PML-N in south Punjab, Khan's party may gain significant electoral wins. It may be mentioned, that already the PTI has forged an alliance with the Bahawalpur National Awami Party (BNAP), which has been struggling for a separate Bahawalpur province and led by the Nawab of Bahawalpur, Salahuddin Abbasi. On the other hand the Pakistan Democratic Party (PDP), the party of late Nawabzada Nasrullah, has already merged into the PTI.
Nawabzada Mansoor Ali Khan, the son of Nasrullah, is contesting the NA election from his native Muzaffargarh on the ticket of the PTI. So all this would contribute to the tally of the PTI votes. In the upper and central Punjab the PTI and the PML-N are locked in a tight one-to-one contest on most of the constituencies. In the Attock, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Lahore, Sialkot, Faisalabad regions the contests are going to be nail-biting. Seemingly, the PML-N still holds its own in its traditional stronghold Lahore and it remains to be seen that how many seats the PTI is able to wrench from it on the basis of its young voters and change band-wagon. The PML-N had formed an alliance with Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), the front organization of the banned Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP); whereas the PTI has created an alliance with Sheikh Rasheed's Awami Muslim League. Both these organizations are going to help the PML-N and the PTI respectively in Jhang-Faisalabad and Rawalpindi-Islamabad regions.

The denial of the ticket to popular figure and politician-cum-journalist Ayaz Amir by the PML-N in Chakwal is going to dent the party and help the PTI add to its tally of seats in the region, as Amir's panel has announced support to the PTI candidates. As far as KP and FATA are concerned, they are as important as any other region of the country because KP, with 35 NA, and FATA with 12 NA seats together have 47 seats and they could play a critical role in the formation of the government of any party. However, in KP the real contests are largely between the PTI, which according to almost all surveys is far ahead of other parties, including the PML-N, on the one hand and the ANP, JUI-F, PPP on the other hand. Interestingly, unlike all the other parties, which have their strongholds in different parts of the province, the PTI has a uniform strength and support across KP. In Peshawar valley, that is the districts of Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Nowshera and Swabi, the PTI is locked in a stiff contest with the ANP. In southern KP, that is the districts of Kohat, Hangu, Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, D I Khan and Tank, the PTI is vying against the JUI-F. In extreme northern Swat, Shangla, Kohistan, Dir Upper and Dir Lower districts, the PTI is challenging the PML-N, JUI-F and JI.

In Hazara division, the contest is straight and simple; that is between the PML-N and the PTI. As far as FATA is concerned, the PML-N does not seem to have much following, while the ANP never had any strong support in the region. Traditionally, the JUI-F has bagged most of the seats from the region. But this time, the PTI is equally popular and the reason is Imran Khan's consistent anti-drone stance. There is another interesting basis of Khan's support in FATA and that is due to his mother's belonging to the Burki tribe of South Waziristan. The support of the PTI in FATA and KP could be gauged from the fact that the party is contesting on all the 47 NA seats from there.
Balochistan has never been significant from Pakistan's overall election point of view, as it only has 14 NA seats, which is roughly divided between its Baloch and Pashtoon belt. With the return of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) to the electoral fray, it is expected to win most of the seats from the Baloch belt.

On the other hand, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) has also returned after the boycott of polls in 2008. In the Pashtoon belt, the contest is mainly between the PkMAP, the JUI-F and the PTI. This time the seats of Balochistan may become extremely important in the formation of the central government.
So all is set for the elections; but the bad law and order situation is hampering the process of electioneering and now the main question is whether free and fair polls could be possible on May 11. This is the question which the concerned quarters have to address because without elections, the already adverse situation in the country is going to be aggravated.

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