Supply and demand
By Dr Farrukh Saleem

In economics, demand is “how much of something people want” and supply is “how much of something is available”. Price, in a competitive market, is “derived by the interaction of supply and demand” and output is ultimately dependent on demand.

In a democracy, demand is what and how much of something voters want and supply is what and how much of something their elected leaders will make available. To be certain, elected leaders will supply – more or less – whatever their voters demand.

What do Pakistani voters demand? Let’s begin with the total number of voters – 85.4 million of which 60 million are rural and 25 million are urban. Of the 85.4 million, if the past nine elections are any guide, around 50 million will not even turn out to vote. Of the 36 million who will come out to vote, no more than 10 million will be from urban areas and 26 million from rural areas.

What do 36 million Pakistani voters demand? The broadest division of Pakistani voters is: urban-rural (roughly 30:70). And an almost parallel division of the potential vote bank is: issue-driven and patronage-driven.

What do 10 million urban voters demand? Of the 10 million urban voters who will actually come out to vote, more than 2.5 million live in Karachi (and that’s the MQM territory). Essentially, all of Pakistan’s urban areas outside Karachi hold a mere 7.5 million voters who will turn out. What do these 7.5 million demand? If surveys are to be believed – and there is no reason not to believe in representative surveys – then the issues are inflation, unemployment, electricity, corruption, terrorism, drones, etc.

What do 26 million rural voters demand? The given in all rural areas is the absolute absence of the state. What happens when there is no state? Answer: Abraham Maslow walks in with his ‘hierarchy of needs’. What do rural voters demand? Answer: Four things: security of body, security of resources, security of family and security of property. If surveys are to be believed – and there is no reason not to believe in representative surveys – then one of the most important rural issues is cattle theft.

Question: Who will win? Answer: The ‘machine politician’. Remember, of the 272 National Assembly seats, 190 are rural and a ‘machine politician’ is someone who successfully puts together a machine that provides 26 million rural voters what they demand. Someone who successfully puts together a machine that provides 26 million rural voters the services of thana-kutchery followed up by the distribution of state resources, including developmental funds and state employment (by the MNA down to the voters).

May 11 is neither about national issues nor about morality. May 11 is all about getting elected, capturing state resources and the distribution of those resources down to your voters. That’s supply and demand, isn’t it?

In economics, an exchange of a good or a service only takes place when a buyer and a seller agree on a particular price; democracy is no different. The trouble with a politician’s life, however, is that “somebody is always interrupting it with an election.”

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com.

Tweets: @saleemfarrukh