The Fall of Kapitan from the lifter in a freak incident at his Ghalib Market Lahore rally on the evening of May 7, 2013 has made most analysts looked more confused about the possible outcome of the May 11, 2013. By the Grace of Almighty Allah, Imran Khan is safe and will be full recovered in few days. The goodwill gesture of the political parties by sharing the grief moment with the family and workers of PTI in this need of the hour in indeed commendable and shows the maturity of the political leadership.

The expected outcome of the May 11 elections depends upon many reasons that were never part of body politic of Pakistan. Never before Media has been able to play a vibrant rule throughout a full tenure of the government and impacted the urban areas through cable and rural areas through dish alike, increasing the awareness of the nation across the country (and abroad) to an unprecedented level. Never before Social Media has so much influence on politics. Never before the Youth and highly educated strata of the society was involved seriously in the political process. These are positive signs and will naturally result in a positive outcome regardless of party positions on May 11.

What will be the possible outcome of May 11 elections? Several factors may contribute to the final tally. These elections have many new dimensions that were never part of any elections before.

Electoral Rolls

The 2013 Electoral Rolls impact is across the board. Moved by many parties including Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to prepare fresh Rolls that are free of errors and duplications. With the help of NADRA it was found out that the 2008 Elections voters’ lists has as much as 45.79% Unverified Votes when data was compared with NADRA CNIC lists (See Table 1). The pain staking exercise showed Unverified Votes percentage ranging 65.50% (Balochistan) to 31.90% (Islamabad) where a gigantic 37.18 Million vote count could not be verified, a figure more than the total votes polled (35.17 million) in 2008 elections.

The Fresh Rolls has now shown 86.18 Million voters, all of whom are verified by NADRA, with the published lists for 2013 elections also has photograph of the voter. This exercise alone has given credibility of the electoral process. Not only that, it also has added a very new dimension to the Polls as many as 38 Million new voters are added, who have never voted before. Majority of them is youth of under 40. This phenomenon has forced political parties to focus the Youth in a way never done earlier. Be it PTI Youth-centered campaign or PML (N) laptop-focused one, the mantra in YOUTH. Again this will have a positive impact on the results and post-election scenario as fresh blood will provide energy to overall political system.

Past trends

When we have a close look at the General Elections results since 1988 (Table 2) we see very clearly that PPP (and allies) and PML (different flavors and allies) have dominated the political scene. These groups have won more than 70% seats in these six elections forming government every time, mostly in coalition with others. The only exception was 1997 when PML (N) alone swept to a two-third majority. PML (N)/IJI had won most seats (481) in this era, followed by PPP/PDA (449).

Coming to the analysis of previous elections we have seen some very interesting historical facts. Since 1993, the Prime Minister has not been ‘repeated’. In fact, the sitting PM of an assembly (1997, 2002, 2008) was not part of next assembly (Nawaz Sharif, Zafarullah Jamali, Shujat Hussain, Shaukat Aziz, Yousuf Raza Gilani). It is most likely that Raja Pervaiz Ashrf will ‘join’ this club on May 11 as well. That also means that no party has been able to ‘retain’ its Federal Government in any of the elections since 1988. We have seen a new government at every election.

The only exception of any ‘continuation’ of a government was in 1990. Mian Nawaz Sharif, the Punjab Chief Minister since 1985 (who continue to serve as the Interim CM as well after Junejo government dismissal on May 29, 1988 by Gen Zia) was elevated to Prime Minister as leader of IJI after Oct 24, 1990 elections. Asghar Khan Case has now revealed every thing how that was achieved. In fact, in 1997 PML (N) has repetition of the same patterns when it has the support of the then sitting President Farooq Laghari, who like Ghulam Ishaq Khan had dismissed BB government on November 5, 1996, using dreaded article 58 2(b) of the Constitution.

For 2013 elections, many observers and analysts were giving PML (N) a fair chance of forming the next government with a comfortable majority. A closer look at history shows that PML (N) / (Q) and PPP had their NA strength reduced significantly each time they were in government. PPP seats were down from 94 (1988) to 44 in 1990, and from 89 (1993) to a dismal 18 in 1997. Similarly IJI/PML (N) was down from 106 (1990) to 73 (1993) and PML (Q) from 118 (2002) to 54 in 2008. In fact at NA level, in 1997 PPP was reduced to Sindh and in 2002 PML (N) was reduced to Punjab only. The pattern is very clear. Pakistani nations wanted a change of face at each election, a phenomenon sometimes manipulated by the Establishment more openly than others (1990 and 2002).

PTI Phenomenon

The new phenomenon of Pakistan politics is the addition of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). From almost nowhere, PTI has emerged as the major political force after its historic Oct 30, 2011 Minar-e-Pakistan Jalsa and the Second-coming at the same venue on March 23 this year. All observers are now agreeing to the fact that PTI and PML (N) are the two leading national level parties contesting these elections. Led by the dynamic Imran Khan, PTI has shown a tireless energy and stamina and literally has taken the country by storm by having more than 70 Jalsas (till writing of these lines with 2 days of campaign remaining) addressed by the Kaptan across Pakistan. He has moved a Jet speed from Peshawar to Karachi to create a real impact on national political scene until the tragic incident that forced him to bed. PTI has very rightly realized that the main battle field will be Punjab and that is why it has focused more PML (N) than PPP.

PML (N) Performance

PML (N) led by Sharif family has also put up a sizeable show to try to maintain its momentum throughout the province. PML (N) has opened its arms to all and sundry and awarded tickets to ex-PML (Q) candidates in numbers in the hope to get a ‘combined’ PML vote. This will have positive impact in many constituencies.

When we look at the past, PML (N) has performed not as well each time it is faced with not one-to-one contest. PAI factor in 1988 and PML (J)/PIF factor in 1993 severely damaged it. In 2008 PML (Q) factor affected it but the APDM boycott helped it. On May 11, the usual ‘right’ to vote that is the main source of PML (N) will have the chance to split between JI, PML (Q) and more than 100 dissident Independent candidates that are running after not getting party tickets.

PML (N) should not be taken for granted of forming a Federal government on May 11.

The Main Battle Field

Contrary to the general perception of PML (N) ‘sweep’ of Punjab, 2008 results showed it has been concentrated to few (14/35) districts only. It is true that its leadership did come back just before elections from the ‘exile’ in Jeddah but it did not have won Punjab overall despite that sympathy vote. Out of 148 seats, PML (N) won 63 seats. It could not win any seat in 10 districts (Mianwali, Bhakkar, Jhang, Mandi Bahuddin, Okara, Lodhran, Khanewal, Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh and Bahawalnagar) and won only one seat in 11 other districts (See Table 3). That means its 52 seats were from 14 districts closer to GT-Road, the reason why it was coined as ‘GT Road Party’, and it won 82% of its seats in 40% of districts. PPP had won 43 (mostly in South Punjab, winning all of 5 Muzaffar Garh seats) and PML (Q) 28 seats. Independents won 13 seats. Mianwali and Bhakkar were the two districts where all seats were won by the Independents. That means 85 seats were not won by PML (N).

2008 Scenario

PPP has got 10.6 million votes riding on BB assassination sympathy wave to get 97 seats (in direct elections) to from the coalition government. PML (N) got 6.78 million votes to get 71 seats (63 from Punjab) and PML (Q) 7.98 million votes but managed to win only 42 seats (28 in Punjab). In the tri-party national level battle the three main parties won 77% (210/272) seats securing 72% (25.37 M / 35.17 M) of the votes.

2013 Possible Scenario

What then we can expect from PTI and PML (N) on May 11. Main attraction of PTI has been the Youth. It is expected that about 20 million youth may vote in these elections who have never voted before. Surveys have shown it to be most popular party among female voters as well. All surveys have shown a vast majority of them may vote for PTI, which also has been Second Choice of almost all parties be it MQM, PPP pr PML (N). It has also fielded very strong candidates in rural constituencies and is able to maintain a very good mix of old and youth. Backed up professionals, PTI has been able to run a campaign that was never seen in political/election history of Pakistan. The Kaptan Fall will naturally motivate PTI workers to go and bring as much voters as they can to the Polling Stations.

FAFEN and Gallup Pakistan surveys have confirmed that Voters turn out may reach 60%, (about 50 Million) the highest ever in Pakistan history. If that happens, it will be actually double the numbers of last Elections actual votes cast. Every percentage means 400,000 to 500,000 votes and the higher the turn out the more is the chance that the New Voter will vote with a more than fair chance of majority voting for PTI.

It has been widely believed and surveys, trends and recent Jalsas have proved beyond doubt that PTI is arguably the largest force in KPK and FATA. It is neck to neck with PML (N) in Punjab and overall more popular than it in Sindh and Baluchistan.

When we look at national level, if only 25% of the New Voters (40 million) vote for PTI that makes 10 million. The old guards like Javed Hashmi, Makhdoom Shah Mehmood, Khursheed Qasuri, Azam Sawati etc have their own votes of about 40,000 on average in their constituencies. 75 such candidates can fetch 3 million votes. PTI message to old voters is also a big factor. If only 10% of those who have casted their vote in past elections vote for PTI that means another 3 million. Based on these conservative estimates PTI total votes in NA elections on May 11 may exceed 16 million, far more enough for it to take simple majority.

On detailed note, PTI has a fair chance of winning 35 seats from NA 1 to 49 (KPK, FATA and Islamabad). It can win 80-85 seats in Punjab (148 seats from NA 50 to 197). From Sindh and Baluchistan it may get 5 seats overall. That can make PTI the largest party. PML (N) may turn out to be second largest party with 70 seats, 90% of those from Punjab. PPP, keeping its historical trend, will be reduced to 35-40 seats, majority from Sindh. MQM will more or less retain its strength. PML (Q) will be almost wiped out with a possible 5 seats. What a pity when we see its ‘candidate’ Shaukat Aziz got 220 plus votes under Musharruf regime.

On Provincial level, PTI can make governments in KPK and Punjab with a share in Baluchistan. Sindh will have a very interesting situation as the surge of the PML (F) led 10-party alliance can bring surprises to led to a situation in which no party can have a simple majority. MQM will then have a good chance to fulfill its long-standing dram of having its candidate as Chief Minister, most probably a non-Urdu speaking MPA.

Whatever the outcome of the May 11 elections, it has established PTI as a national political force. This is an excellent sign for Pakistan as we now have three national level parties. It will strengthen the democratic system and provide more choices to the voters.

The post 5/11 scenario is bright by all means.

(The writer is the Director, Center for Research Development, Lahore)


http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/