Capturing the demographic dividend through education
By Mehnaz Aziz

The most direct impact of education (particularly girls’ education) is on lowering fertility rates. Educated women are found to have low fertility rates.

Current demographic changes in Pakistan pose an interesting scenario of tough challenges coupled with encouraging opportunities. Pakistan is experiencing rapid growth in population with slow decline in fertility and mortality rates. A lot is written on the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. Declining fertility and mortality rates due to improved health care and awareness, a process known as ‘demographic transition’, leads to a bulging population of youth ready to work and save. This demographic transition if channelled to productive avenues through relevant policy interventions will lead to rapid economic growth, an outcome known as ‘demographic dividend’. Sathar, Royan and Bongaarts in their latest book Capturing the Demographic Dividend in Pakistan, published by Population Council, 2013, has addressed key areas to focus on in order to capture this valuable demographic dividend. Key areas identified were education coverage and reproductive health awareness. Call it a challenge or opportunity, policymakers can harness the power of Pakistan’s increasing cohort of population in their prime years to fuel economic growth. Otherwise, if uncontrolled, this rising population tide will cause agitation, unrest, violence and political/civil conflict.

Important policy questions here are: how to control the unsustainable growth of population through voluntary measures? How to secure the demographic dividend by building capacity and increase productivity of this new young population? Are the present infrastructure, industry and economy capable of absorbing this increasing tide of working population? The answer to all these policy questions is linked directly or indirectly to the provision of quality education. Internationally, the strong connection between education and population wellbeing is recognised and well documented at all stages of development. The next few decades are crucial for Pakistan as the majority of the population will be of working age, and hence, we need to start planning for its wellbeing now. Investment in education is the need of the time and our focus area should be primary education with particular attention to girls’ education.

The most direct impact of education (particularly girls’ education) is on lowering fertility rates. Educated women are found to have low fertility rates. In the case of Pakistan, increased investment in girls’ education and wider outreach of family planning awareness will directly lower fertility rates. As per the most recent Demographic and Health survey of Pakistan, the fertility rate of educated women is 2.3 but for uneducated women it is a striking 4.8. Also the median age of marriage for educated women is six years older than for uneducated women. The positive effects of education are not limited to lowering fertility rates. Universal access to education is the key ingredient for Pakistan to transform the demographic transition into a demographic dividend. The population of Pakistan is growing at a soaring rate of 1.8 percent and is projected to reach close to an astounding 300 million by 2050. A major proportion (49 percent) of this 300 million will consist of young people (24-64). This working age population cohort will be a catalyst for future growth, if educated and provided the employment opportunities to serve the country.

In 2050, close to 59 percent of this bulging working age population will be women. Considering the present female literacy rate of only 38 percent in the working age population (20-64), a large portion of the working age population (62 percent) is a burden on the economy. This trend will continue to 2050, where the proportion of uneducated females in the working age population will be nearly double that of males. Realising the current sad state of education provision for females and to ensure the productive and active involvement of this large portion of the future population, there is an urgent need to invest heavily and on priority basis in girls’ education.

The future of Pakistan is heavily dependent on the provision of equitable education to all and is in line with the mandate of Article 25-A. The need of the time is investment in primary education and to achieve provision of education for everyone as a basic human right. The changing demographic of Pakistan is a double edged sword. If not used in a productive and right way to spur future economic growth, it will hurt Pakistan socially, politically and economically in the future. To harvest the fruits of long term human capital development, we should act now and develop a nationwide education strategy. After the 18th Amendment, we see a disparity in quality and provision in all four provinces. A National Council is required to ensure standards and coordinate implementation in the provinces. Also, a district-based accountability mechanism is the need of the day. The ball is in the court of the new government after the May 2013 elections to ensure that the promises made in manifestoes see the light of day. Any education policy to capture the demographic dividend has to be inclusive of all four provinces.

The author is the founding director of Children’s Global Network and is the member of the Global Agenda Council for Pakistan. She can be reached at mehnazakberaziz@gmail.com

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...2-5-2013_pg3_6