@Sarfraz Shami

There are 39 seats for DMG this year. Confirmed from the Establishment Division. Which means there will be 3 seats on 'open merit' using the 7.5% open merit quota rule.

50% is Punjab's share. That comes to 18seats including women quota (
I am not sure why you have not counted any minority seat for Punjab this year - is there no minority seat holder who has passed this year?? )

The 2nd positin holder is opting for PSP as he has mentioned in another thread. If we assume the 1,3,4 take up DMG then that would exhaust the all Pakistan open merit seats. Anyone after that who has DMG as his/her priority from Punjab will take up the Punjab quota seats.

I think you've done a pretty good analysis. Now it just comes down to what peoples preferences are and whether Punjab merit seats are 15 or 16.