I have query please give your suggestions/views on this also

in 2011 merit cut of for AJk was 59 - for phd having 18 years qualification
in 2012 merit cut of for AJk was 54 - for phd having 18 years qualification

tyt was for buisness admninstration
on this trend what one think wt would be the next merit cut of for overseas wrt Business admn phd admision ?

as i got 56 this time so percetile was 82.22
what would be the trend this time and how merit cut off is determined ?