Introduction
A retrospective look into the 20-month-old 'Arab awakening' highlights some observations. One needs to enumerate the events which turned into the bloody civil wars in Syria. There is a creeping outside intervention in the region. The pros and cons of the large scale military intervention are still awaited. First and the foremost observations is that the Arab uprising is indigenous and purely followed to bring down the decades long regimes. Secondly, none of these uprising in Arab world have clear-cut roadmap beyond the overthrowing of the authoritarian empire. Thirdly, the west is inspired by the richness and wealth of these regimes as the North African and Middle Eastern countries are rich in energy resources. However, the outbreak and the intensity of the civil war in Syria is unexpected and its consequences are even more surprising. The further discussion will elaborate the plight of Syria today and different dimensions of this civil war.

Current Developments
In the present Syrian crisis, more than 20,000 people including civilians, rebels and personnel from Syrian army have lost their lives. Similarly, 120,000 people have fled to the neighbouring countries like, Jordon, Turkey and Iraq. The Alawi’ite sect, to whom Bashar al Assad belongs to, comprises 10-12 percent of the population of Syria in comparison of Sunnis which make 70 percent of the Syrian population. Assad used Alawi’ite militia, the Shabiha against the civilians or the rebel forces.

Recently, OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) called an emergency meeting of the 57 Muslim member states of the world for deciding the fate of Syria. During the proceedings, OIC suspended the membership of Syria on the basis of the violence in the country. However, Iran severely opposed the move. In this regard, Pakistan took a neutral stance and said that she respects the sovereignty and integrity of Syria.

In July, UN Security Council failed to adopt a resolution against Syria as Russia and China vetoed the resolution. Prior to that, UN General Assembly also passed a resolution against Syria as the violence was growing rapidly. In the same period, UN envoy for Syria, Kofi Annan rendered his resignation and the last hope of the peace process faded away.

Internal dynamics and its implications
Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970 in a bloodless coup termed the Corrective Revolution, was notable particularly in the time of older Assad for his ruthlessness and building the entire ruling structure around Alawi’ite loyalists. Under Hafez al-Assad regime, Syria made little progress in economic world but his ruling time was remembered for 1982 attack on the town of Homs to eliminate Muslim Brotherhood adherents. That incident left 30,000 people dead. A similar operation was carried out by Bashar al-Assad against the Homs. If Assad steps down, there are less chances of his survival and since he has used Alawi’ite militia, the Shabiha to attack the Sunni majority rebels. There were reports that Russian ambassador in Paris said that his country would give asylum to Bashar al-Assad and his family but later on the claim was denied.

Assad's days may be numbered. The bomb blast in the meeting where the defence minister and the head of the National Security Bureau lost their lives is the manifestation of the fact that Assad's regime is losing its control over the internal affairs. Recently, Syria threatened to use biological and chemical weapons against the external enemies. It is the first time Syria made an acknowledgement of having weapons of mass destruction.

Despite the fact there is great upheaval against the Assad's regime but it is also important to note that Assad government has enough power to keep fighting and it shows no signs of giving up. Most members of the Syria's Alawi’ite, Christian and Kurdish with small chunk of Sunni Muslims still prefer Assad's government. The rebels in Syria are divided amongst more than 100 groups and there is no clear political leadership. But if the fight prolongs there are great chances of ensuing ethnic, religious and sectarian violence in Syria as happened in Lebanon in 1970s. The situation was controlled when the Syrian forces stepped in Lebanon. Those who claim that the rebel forces have ability to create the Frankenstein, they are devoid of the fact that the opposition does not have a free army. It is more or a less rebels, who are operating at different places in groups. Furthermore, there is great evidence of the infiltration of al-Qaeda (strangely an ally of the US) which is providing assistance to rebels.

External dynamics and its impacts
Syria is the 'land link' between Iran and the Hezbollah, Tehran's front line force against the Israel. It is in this prospect which brought Israel around to support the anti-Assad strategy. Curtailing Iranian influence in the Middle East is the main objective of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries not to support Iran especially in response to Shia uprising in the Bahrain.

Turkey is also sceptical about the manoeuvring of Syria. There is a large scale tendency of Kurdish movement in Turkey. Kurds being Shi’ite by sect and had been supportive of Syrian government in the past, viewed as suspicion in Ankara. Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister, Dovutoglu announced the establishment of the 'safe zone' inside Syria for the internally-displaced persons.

Russia has traditional relations with Ba'athist Syria. The former has an antipathy for the Sunni Islamists group forces as one can see during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Russians have a stack in opposing the West and favouring Iran in the Middle East. That's why, Russia used its influence and vetoed thrice the resolution against Syria.

However, China has different perspective of supporting the Ba'athist regime of Assad. Beijing is facing separatist movement in Xinjiang by Uighurs, Taiwan and Tibet. China perceives such incident with great wisdom and sceptical about the foreign interventions. Therefore, China wanted to have some good friend in the UN Security Council. Thus, Russia fills the gap. Once, the Chinese ambassador said about relations with the Russians, “We have been pushed into quasi-alliance.”

Expected fall-outs
Whatever is the dimension and the course of the Syrian civil war, ultimately the political change will take place. The reason behind is that there is no possibility of sustaining Assad's government as the latter is involved in killings of his own people. Apart from Assad's government and his close aides all other protagonists are of the view of an early ending of the bloody civil war which has already spread to Lebanon and may spill into Turkey and other neighbouring countries.

Recommendations
The shape and the feasibility of the Syrian civil war are still unclear. But the ceasefire is the need of the hour. There might be some preconditions to end this civil war and achieve the ceasefire. The preconditions might be given in recommendations like: a future role for the Assad regime leaders, amnesty for non-criminal government security forces, elimination of terrorist and foreign elements from the region that might belong to anti-government or pro-government, giving assurance to all religious and ethnic entities for their safety and security in different locations.

Furthermore, a collective force can be employed from the platform of UN and OIC to look into the affairs of ceasefire until the transitional phase passes out. In this regard, the new UN envoy to Syria should play a vital role in bringing peace and stability in the region.

Furthermore, Pakistan must adopt the strategy of neutrality at this critical moment. As Pakistan is fighting against terrorism in Fata, therefore, neutrality is the suitable solution.

In a nut shell, the political change is inevitable in Syria. The civil war has to end eventually. It is better for the Syrian people to end this bloody war fair as early as possible through peaceful manner. However, if the fighting prolongs there is a great possibility of growing sectarian, religious and ethnic violence not only in Syria but also in the other neighboring countries.

Sister maine current affairs k important topic ki aik list upload ki thi CSS forum par woh zara check karain or mujhe batain k un main se aap kitnai topics par likh sakti hian?

__________________
True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing. "Socrates"