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Old Wednesday, December 04, 2013
greenboy greenboy is offline
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Default post withdraw scenario

this movemnet gave value due to justic and adl
after 9/11 tragedy , taliban sided wiith al qaeeda , counted as the enemy of usa ,

Al qaeeda
main target of 9/11 master execution ,this organization is black listed and its asset and foreign accounts are frozen ,still it is operating afghanistan , northern africa and arab world , in different countries alias group are operating , al shahbab , TTP and in syria

haqqani network this is afghanistan based organization , very cative along pakistan border , it is accredited with different attacks in kabul and its vicinity
american admiral mike mullen says haqqani network is the in veritable arm of isi

actually , these different groups are fighting in region to resist american and us forces , however , us is unable to contain these insurgent group .

security establishment in afghanistan
us forces
nato troops
and afghan national army

us forces after surge number of us troops increased to 130000 , but ability to control afghanistan was dwindle , still different areas are restless and unable to fully administrate by us forces .
mainly , southern afghanistan , jalaabad , helment are the areas under us influence .

nato troops , this is collection of 27 countries of the world , this iorganization contributed 80000 troops to the peace and bring situation normal in the region , it is unable to control the region of restless ,turmoil , mostly station in pak afghan border areas , kunar , nooristan and paktia

these forces conducted different operations with the time , collectively , un able to control the restless situation in the turmoil and violent situation in afghanistan , but insurgent grow and stretch influence outside kabul .

Afghan national army strength is 20000 , but bottle neck lies in training and equipment , basically , this force lacks sophisticated weapons and force to counter different insurgencies in the region , however , us gave tarining to raise teh level of troops , and hoping after withdraw they contriol country , majority peopel are hazars and tajiks , pasthun actually got training and left it ,, ana number, training and its unity of command is questionable after us complete withdraw

views of different group regarding withdarw ,
taliban
this particular group wants complete withdraw of forces (foreign and us) , they came in negotiation table but disagreement with afghan president left peaceful resolution, however exert influence in different part of country

haqqani group rogue group affiliate with al qaeda and taliban , conducetd deadly and lethal attacks including serena hotel , kabul road side mine attack and different brutal incidents , capture of us solider . opposed peace process and same view as atliban

hizb e islami , took some seats from karzai administration , coalition partner in government but also hostile to us forces .only wish complete withdraw of foreign forces.

post withdraw problems

regional player influence
iran
has influence and sympathesis in northern alliance , so put it to form stable government in kabul.

pakistan ,
prime minister repeated his stance remain neutral in afghan solution ,our country do not endorse and support any insurgent group . pakistan facilitate peace process through consecutive meeting between mullah bradar and afghan peace council .
new great game ,
pakistan do not endorse any new game in the region , india is not allowed to stay after us withdraw , us wants role for india after withdraw , it intention and wish against interest ,pakistan has strong evidence of indian involvement in subversion activities , former , goal to encircle strategically . us assumes india as regional power and counter china , this is all new game but region is more active for such policy .

new plethora of bsa (bilateral security agreement )
afghan and us signed strategic agreement , but hamid karzai and doesnot consent , us want presence in the region for 30000 troops , and impunity from afghan , however in present situation , this is not possible .

blessing in the disguise

hope ful , prosper and stable afghanistan in the interest of region , particularly pakistan because facing the burnt of this war ,ttp has safe heaven inside afghan soil to undermine interest of pakistan , pakistan want neutral role of afghanistan . stable and harmony afghan is in interest of whole region .

negative aspect
northern alliance and taliban
northern alliance are sided with us , if history repeat itself of atrocities and brutalities , hope so mullah umar in favor of its people and happy ending and smooth controlling of country , iran put its influence in northern alliance .
sectarian violence
this opportunity will put great sectarian violence in the region , teh whole middle east is engulfing due to this war , but now tame the time and bring prosperity in teh region .


kindly check and make appropriate amendment
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