Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Opportunity and perils in 2014

NOW the real business begins — or could, if the leadership so willed it. The year 2013 was one of unprecedented transition, even of the unexpected kind with the elimination of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan chief Hakeemullah Mehsud. Thus far though the new parliament, new prime minister, new army chief and new Supreme Court chief justice have no great achievements to their name — and perhaps having spent only months, and in some cases just weeks, in their new jobs it was unrealistic to expect too much of substance. But at this point the excuses must end. Great opportunity and, as ever, threats are at hand. Most obviously, the eyes of the world will be on Pakistan as the drawdown and handover in neighbouring Afghanistan take place. But internally too there is much that can be fixed — or go further wrong if the right decisions are not taken. And of all the key figures, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will be the leader with the biggest stage to prove if he is capable of true leadership.

Start with internal security. The TTP remains a formidable threat to the security and stability of Pakistan as do the other militant and sectarian groups that have spread out across the country. In fact, militancy and terrorism are the single greatest threat to Pakistan today. The security establishment has finally accepted that fact after many years of vacillation, but now it is the political class that remains unsure about the extent of the threat. Whether it is because of the politics of Imran Khan or Punjab’s bargain with the militant devil, the PML-N government has thus far remained content with its anti-militancy strategy resting at talks about talks. That must change, and it inevitably will once the TTP settles under its new chief — for talks, as articulated by the government, is a chimera. And if talks do fail, or never get off the ground, then what is the alternative? It is not enough that the PML-N wants to raise a special counterterrorism force in Punjab. Surely, a national approach is needed and must be demanded of a prime minister who represents all of Pakistan.

The second area which needs urgent focus is the economy and the energy sector. The prime minister has talked a good talk when it comes to the economy, but, as ever, the actions don’t quite match. Take last weekend’s decision to hand over Pesco to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government after Imran Khan demanded it. By now, the PML-N should have a clear road map for reforms in the electricity sector, especially on how to turn around the various component organisations in the sector. If that were the case, then why would the PML-N just hand over a distribution company to a provincial government? It does not send a very reassuring message about the federal government’s confidence in its own plans, to say the least. And there is very little left to say about the terrible budget management of the PML-N so far.

The third challenge is of the political and governance kind. Certainly, there is unprecedented space for the democratic process in Pakistan today. But the political leadership — at the centre or in the provinces — has not been able to raise its own performance yet. Ultimately, be it the civil-military divide or the public’s disenchantment with politicians, it will take better leadership and better results by the politicians themselves to protect and strengthen the democratic project.

As for the prime minister, India and Afghanistan beckon — a historic opportunity to reset ties for the better with important neighbours who will undergo their own transitions in the year ahead. Mr Sharif has said so many of the right things about both countries and does appear to mean them. But history will only be made by a leader who is willing to lead from the front. The country can only hope Nawaz Sharif is that leader in 2014.

Pesco challenge

THE ‘face-off’ between the PML-N and PTI on the critical issue of the country’s power troubles is nothing but political posturing by the two rival parties. When Imran Khan claimed at his party’s anti-inflation rally in Lahore that the PTI government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could control the massive financial losses being suffered by the Peshawar Electric Supply Company, plug the widespread power theft and recover bills from consumers, perhaps he was not expecting such a prompt and ‘positive’ response from the rulers in Islamabad. The PML-N government at the centre was quick to accept the ‘offer’ because it afforded the party a very good opportunity to put its rival on the mat. On the recommendation of his water and power minister, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has agreed “in principle” to give Pesco’s control to the PTI government. So what is the hitch, and why the hesitancy?

The KP government has now come up with a long list of demands — such as clearance of the company’s balance sheet, continuation of the federal subsidy to compensate for Pesco’s losses that have been incurred over a period of five years, handing over of all hydel generation projects, the assurance of the supply of 1000MW electricity to the province during winters, and what not — that the centre must accept before it transfers Pesco to the KP government. If the PML-N knows that the provincial government cannot fix the festering power problems, the PTI is also quite conscious of the fact that the centre cannot and will not agree to its new set of demands. It is regrettable that both the parties are trying to score points at the cost of economic progress in the country, and are only exacerbating the anguish that the persistent power shortages are causing to the people. If the two parties are serious about tackling the power problem, they should sit across the table and also invite other major parties and stakeholders to discuss the issue in a manner that leads us all to a durable solution. Political posturing will not address any issue — be it the power crunch, economic slowdown or militancy.

The best course for the KP government, or, for that matter, the other provinces, is to encourage and facilitate investors in setting up power plants in their areas rather than making ‘devolution of the power sector’ an issue of provincial autonomy. The federal government shouldn’t hesitate in extending help to them in wooing investors as it has been doing in the case of Punjab that is also being ruled by the PML-N. It must not let its focus move away from its declared policy of privatising the power sector — generation, transmission and distribution — and let the market forces play their role in fixing it. The mess the country’s power sector has been led into by decades of inefficient, centralised control are too big for the federal and provincial governments to handle. The political parties need to understand that politicking on issues that are stalling the economy and causing huge suffering to the people will not get us anywhere.

D.I. Khan jailbreak: damning report

IN the years that Pakistan has been mired in militancy and terrorism, there has been no dearth of detractors maintaining that it is the inefficiencies of different arms of the state — if not outright collusion — that has allowed matters to reach such a pass. This charge is hotly denied, by state representatives who say they have no part in the mess, and by a citizenry that cannot digest the levels of ineptitude on part of the leadership that this would imply. Unfortunately, there is no denying that with distressing frequency, evidence of such monumental incompetence surfaces that questions cannot but be raised about the state’s levels of political will and operational ability. In this category must be included the revelations about July’s Dera Ismail Khan jailbreak, when militants managed to free over 250 prisoners without so much as a peep from the law enforcement and security apparatus.

The report of the inquiry commission tasked with investigating the incident, the contents of which were made public by this newspaper yesterday, constitutes an indictment of the security and law enforcement agencies. It ought to have served as a wake-up call of no minor proportions at all levels. Instead, it was shelved — to the utter lack of surprise of those familiar with the head-in-the-sand approach in Pakistan. The report notes that over two dozen Mehsud militants, accompanied by several more from Punjab, Uzbekistan and other places, managed to travel all the way from South Waziristan to D.I. Khan. Once there, they set up pickets at 10 strategic locations around the prison, cutting off security and law enforcement personnel’s access to the area. Shockingly, most of these pickets were located not far from police and military checkpoints. The militants blew the prison’s gates open with rocket-propelled grenades and over the next 45 minutes or so conducted a “methodical” search of the cells and barracks, freeing prisoners and even identifying and executing four members of a minority sect. Having done so, they dispersed; some headed back to South Waziristan, others melted into the city. All this was achieved with virtually no interference from the security and law enforcement apparatus, which had in the preceding days been beefed up, according to the report.

It could be argued that a jailbreak on such a large scale would have been difficult to counter — except that not only had a similar incident taken place before, this time there was even intelligence that an attack was imminent. Clearly, no lessons were learnt from the assault in Bannu last April, claimed by the TTP, which resulted in nearly 400 prisoners being sprung from jail. Further, in the case of D.I. Khan, the civilian and security administrations had been made aware of the threat and had even made efforts to ward it off. If this was the state of preparedness of the authorities in an area which has long borne the brunt of militancy and terrorism — one that has, with great fanfare, been announced as having been brought back into the fold of the state’s writ — what the situation must be in other areas can only be guessed at. Most worryingly, perhaps, the report notes that about half an hour into the assault on the jail, a militant came onto the police wireless frequency to taunt the law enforcers and to say the city would be razed to the ground. The confidence is astounding; the image conjured is of a savvy, well-equipped militant network running merry rings around a helpless state and security apparatus.

The report refers to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan as a “Frankenstein” and warns that as long as “even a semblance of these outfits” exists, the violence will continue unabated and all strengthening of the security apparatus will be in vain. Is the state refusing to look the threat in the eye? Is it shying away from recognising the enormity of the problem? Or, even more disturbingly, is it impotent, unable to muster the strength and intelligence that the task requires? On the answer to this question hinges the future of the country.