30.01.2014 Talking to the TTP
A defiant prime minister walked into the National Assembly for the first time in six months but departed without having challenged the status quo in the fight against militancy. Nawaz Sharif’s address to parliamentarians was, for the most part, on the mark. He paid tribute to the victims of militant attacks – his singling out of the Peshawar church bombing was a particularly apt touch – and made no apologies or excuses for the murderous TTP. Nawaz’s speech also served as a telling rebuke to the right-wing politicians, many of them in his own party, who believe and would have others believe that terrorist attacks will come screeching to a halt as soon as drone attacks cease. Without disavowing his principled disapproval of drone strikes, Nawaz attempted to delink drones and the TTP, pointing out that the militant group would continue to attack even if the US stopped targeting them. The stirring and harsh rhetoric employed by the prime minister seemed to indicate an imminent announcement of a military operation. The ground had been set for this shift in tactics in recent days by members of the government. But Nawaz Sharif explained at some length that he was eager to give peace another chance and end the violence tearing the country apart. So he took up a TTP offer of peace talks and named a four-man committee that would advise the government on the proposed negotiations.
The committee itself is a mixed bag. The inclusion of Rahimullah Yusufzai, the pre-eminent journalist from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is welcome since Yusufzai is known for his expertise and fairness. The same cannot be said for Major Amir, an old Nawaz loyalist who was part of the Midnight Jackals plot to bring down the first Benazir Bhutto government. Amir’s contribution will likely centre around bringing Maulana Fazlullah to the table since the TTP chief was once taught by Amir’s father at a madressah. The other members of the committee, former diplomat Rustam Shah who is now linked to the PTI and columnist Irfan Siddiqui are both known for being pro-talks. Nawaz Sharif explicitly called this a last chance for peace but did not explain if a cessation of terrorist attacks was a prerequisite for talks. As long as the TTP keeps up its reign of terror there is precious little chance of negotiations working. We all want an end to violence; and for these reasons understand the sentiments expressed rather emotionally by the PM. But at the same time, there has to be caution. The state has already lost much of its writ and power. It cannot afford to give more away. There is as yet no clarity at all on what the agenda for talks will be or what terms will be set. It is obviously necessary to have a clear picture in mind, with parliament taken into confidence. Beyond a certain point, the issue is too big to be kept secret. Imran Khan raised a point about transparency in parliament. The PM must honour his promise to ensure this. From the mainstream political parties the most supportive statement came from JUI-F chief Fazlur Rehman who declared this an opportunity not for the Taliban but for the nation. His optimism will only be borne out if the prime minister gives a more detailed explanation of what he hoped talks would achieve. ‘Peace’ is far too vague and unrealistic an answer to suffice. At a time when new thinking is needed, Nawaz Sharif offered us more of the same. He will only have a short time to try and make this approach work before more drastic measures may be needed. The talks option will now be tested out, and it will become easier to know what to do next, depending on the situation that arises over the coming weeks. This will be a crucial time – as the PM has said, announcing a decision of huge significance to his government and to us all.
Talking to the US
The most notable thing about the Pakistan-US strategic dialogue may have been that it took place at all. After a three-year break, marked by one crisis after the other ranging from the Osama bin Laden raid to the Salala incident, foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz’s trip to Washington to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry was an attempt to put past troubles behind and start anew. It is unsurprising then that the elephants in the room were ignored both in pre-talks remarks and the official statement after the meeting. There was no mention of the divisive drone attacks that have played such a role in the mounting mistrust between the two countries. Neither was the vexing topic of negotiations with the TTP brought up, although Aziz did tell the media that the military option remained a strong possibility. On security issues, the focus was predictably US-centric with the imminent pullout of Isaf troops from Afghanistan dominating the conversation. Pakistan stuck to its line that it has no favourites in post-war Afghanistan although such assurances have not convinced either the US or Hamid Karzai in the past. Aziz was correct to point out that Pakistan is worried that the US will forget about us as it did in the 1990s after the Soviet withdrawal and that it wants the relationship between the two countries to be more than transactional.
To that end, Sartaj Aziz did well in focusing on our economy and how necessary US aid is to help us develop. Terrorism cannot be defeated as long as the economy does not improve. For that to happen foreign investment is vital and cannot be tied to security considerations alone. Aziz also reiterated our commitment to peace with India, tying it in with progress on the war against militancy. These feel-good words, of course, obscure the reality that peace is only possible so long as there are honest brokers on all sides, something that has been severely lacking in the complicated Pakistan-Afghanistan-India-US quadrilateral. The success or otherwise of the strategic dialogue can only be judged in hindsight. Only if this initial meeting leads to further, more productive, interactions between the two countries will it be seen as worthwhile. Future dialogues will also have to address the drones issue. In his state of the union address, President Barack Obama did mention that the US was hoping to set rules for the use of drones and limit their use but Pakistan will only be convinced if the situation on the ground changes. Actions, rather than words that may never be enforced, will govern the future of Pakistan-US relations.