Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Seizing the moment

The TTP’s surprising offer of a month-long ceasefire was followed by an equally unexpected government response that air strikes targeting the militant group would also be suspended. The twin announcements give hope, however slight, that the moribund peace process could be revived. The next few days will be crucial as both sides size up the other’s intentions. Any attack, like the horrible one on an Islamabad court on Monday, will bring the sincerity of the TTP into doubt. Denials alone won’t be accepted and the government will need proof that the militant group is not involved. The government will also have to figure out why the TTP decided on a ceasefire now. If it is because the air strikes had spooked them into submission then trying to negotiate a favourable peace might be a wise option – all the while retaining the right to use force if called for. However, if the TTP was hurt by the military attacks and is now looking for a breather so that it can regroup to its former strength then agreeing to a ceasefire may end up being counterproductive. The judgements made by the government will be crucial.

Once the TTP has satisfied the government that its ceasefire call is genuine – and the only proof of this will be if no attacks are traced back to the militant group – it will be time to reconvene the negotiating committees. This time, though, the government should learn from its previous negotiating debacle. And it should not agree to a premature withdrawal of troops from the tribal areas either. Last time, the TTP demanded the release of its prisoners and then ended up slaughtering FC men. That alone should preclude setting any TTP men free – at least until every prisoner they are holding is released. This is the first time the TTP has offered a ceasefire unilaterally, signalling that it may be weaker than before. The fight against the TTP may still have its final reckoning on the battlefield but till then the state needs every peaceful victory it can get.

Killings continue

The speculation surrounding the on-off-on negotiations with the TTP makes it inevitable, and even understandable, that the first impulse after every attack is to wonder who is behind that. Let us not forget in the midst of all the theorising, though, that 11 blameless people were killed on Monday after what appears to be a bombing-and-firing attack on an Islamabad court. Thousands have now perished in a war that was not of their making. As we investigate who was responsible for this attack, we should do so in the hope that a measure of justice can be afforded to those who died, and their grieving families. The first suspect that comes to mind – the TTP – has denied that it was behind the attack. Since one of the victims, additional sessions judge Rafaqat Awan, had previously dismissed a case against Pervez Musharraf for the Lal Masjid operation it is possible that some militant group that shares at least ideological affinity with the TTP, may have been involved. A new group calling itself Ihrar-ul-Hind led by one Asad Mansoor has claimed responsibility; he says he was in TTP in the past and has left it. What the TTP does against him will provide the proof of their sincerity for peace through a dialogue. Imran Khan and Maulana Samiul Haq have already blamed forces who want to destroy any chance of peace.

The TTP spokesman has said it is not his group’s responsibility to uncover the attackers. Yes, the primary responsibility lies with the government, but if the TTP is sincere about its ceasefire offer then it too should be eager to find out the truth. It can start by naming the groups that are affiliated with it and those that are not. The day of a tragedy of this magnitude is not one in which to indulge in conspiracy theorising. Talking vaguely of a third force is highly irresponsible as it allows the guilty to escape justice. The government, for its part, will not only have to track down the culprits, it should also know better than to let its guard down. Strikes against this break-away group will be justified even during the ceasefire. Just because a ceasefire has been announced does not mean that the country will be spared violence.

The big win

Technically speaking, it wasn’t actually a great knock – an 18-ball 34 runs that culminated with two consecutive sixers that didn’t even come off full-blooded shots. But in the annals of Pakistan’s cricket history, Shahid Afridi’s match-winning innings played in a crowded stadium in the outskirts of Dhaka on Sunday will go down as a fabled one, just below Javed Miandad’s memorable demolishing of India with a last-ball six in Sharjah almost three decades ago. It wasn’t a final like that Austral-Asia Cup clash in 1986 but it was still a must-win game against old rivals India with both teams battling for survival in the ongoing Asia Cup. Pakistan’s ship was sinking fast with a familiar hara-kiri act while chasing a modest victory target of 246 when Afridi came to the crease. Even his die-hard fans doubted whether Lala, suffering the worst batting slump of his international career, would go on to become his team’s saviour. But somehow Afridi managed to regain his big-hitting prowess when it mattered most and turned the tables on the ashen-faced Indians.

The timing of the win couldn’t have been better. Barring any major upsets, it has helped Pakistan, the event’s defending champion, reach the Asia Cup final. Perhaps more importantly, the result has once again sent a clear message to the rest of the cricket world that it is incomplete without its most colourful team – Pakistan. It might not have big money like India or the clout that countries like England and Australia – the other two members of the Big Three – possess but when it comes to producing exciting cricketers like Afridi, Pakistan is second to none. The win against India comes as a confidence-booster for Pakistan’s cricket chiefs as they prepare to lock horns with the Big Three. As the only country still against the take-over of the International Cricket Council (ICC) by an oligarchy led by India, Pakistan will need all kinds of ammunition to take this fight to a point where it can achieve some kind of respectable outcome from it. Sunday’s Asia Cup triumph has certainly added some firepower to its depleted arsenal thanks to a man known to his fans as ‘Boom Boom’.