Saturday, 22 March, 2014

NDMA for India delayed

THE postponement of Friday`s cabinet meeting, which was widely expected to give non-discriminatory market access to India in lieu of the controversial MFN status, suggests that the momentum to boost bilateral trade relations has hit yet another road block. The official statement on reasons for the meeting`s postponement is inadequate and vague.

For starters, the government hadn`t even said in so many words that the meeting was being convened to allow India free access to Pakistan`s market. It has repeatedly tried to downplay recent media reports that Islamabad was considering taking such a step. The secrecy surrounding its plans to liberalise bilateral trade has spawned speculations that the powerful security establishment doesn`t favour free-market access for Indian goods, at least not for now.

Improvement in bilateral trade with India is a major economic policy plank of the Nawaz Sharif government. There`s also pressure on Islamabad from globallenders and Western powers to normalise trade ties with New Delhi. The government is committed to boosting bilateral trade with India in a phased manner in its loan deal with the IMF.

The prime minister has been sending the right signals to Delhi. Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif`s `sports diplomacy` must be credited with helping the resumption of bilateral trade talks and the meeting of the trade ministers of the two countries in January after a hiatus of 16 months. Both ministers had agreed to implement NDMA on a reciprocal basis to move forward on trade liberalisation.

But the process hit snags when Delhi failed to take action required to dismantle the barriers impeding the flow of Pakistani exports in its markets.

Pakistan linked NDMA with the recommencement of the composite dialogue with Delhi.

Hopes of quick forward movement on the trade front were revived when reports started pouring in that India hadshared non-papers with Islamabad, promising market access to Pakistan`s major exports in return for NDMA for its exporters. Reports that the commerce ministry was quite happy with the details of the concessions Delhi had agreed to extend to Pakistan abounded until the cabinet meeting was deferred.

It is hoped that the delay is temporary.

The opening up of borders for free bilateral trade will benefit both economies. While the grant of nondiscriminatory access to each other will provide a big boost to trade, it will only be a first step towards mutually beneficial commercial ties. After this, the two governments will need to work on facilitating direct business-to-business links, which currently happens via Dubai. As the volume of trade surges, infrastructure will have to be improved at the only land route Wagah-Attari.

The faster work on these issues gets under way the better the prospects of improved trade ties.

PM`s welcome denial

A DENIAL by the prime minister was overdue, given the misgivings expressed by the opposition and the media, besides the earnestness with which the Senate expressed its reservations and wanted to hear the government`s point of view. The issue was not merely the $1.5bn Saudi grant and the visits by Arab royals; there appeared more to it because of the volatile situation in the Gulf and the Levant. Then on Wednesday, the Bahrain monarch visited the Joint Services Headquarters, fuelling further speculations, because the visit had come in the wake of the Pakistan-Saudi statement issued at the end of the Saudi crown prince`s visit which seemed to indicate a shift in Islamabad`s Syria policy.

There were also rumours that included in their sweep tales about N-weapons and troop deployment abroad. Obviously, placing boots abroad is entirely different from cooperation in security matters.

Pakistan has security ties and collaboration in defence technology with a dozen countries. But Pakistani troops being abroad except as UN peacekeepers is an entirely different ball game. On Thursday, at the newly named M.M. Alam Air Base, Nawaz Sharif categorically deniedthat Pakistani troops would be deployed abroad for military operations we hope that there are no deviations from this and said that no country had even made such a request. The prime minister`s policy statement reinforces Sartaj Aziz`s assurance to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee on Monday that apprehensions about a possible shift in Pakistan`s Syria policy were baseless.

There is no doubt Pakistan has technological and manpower assets which have enabled it to play a positive role in the Middle East. No wonder the Bahrain monarch should want this country to help him mend ties with Iran. However, in his talk with the media on Thursday, Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmad, Bahrain`s foreign minister, acknowledged Pakistan`s difficulties and said Islamabad could play a positive role if it maintained balance in its relations with all countries. The Bahraini foreign minister could not have put it better.

Pakistan can ill-afford a tilt in its relations at a time when the Middle East is burning in sectarian fires. A rapprochement between all Gulf monarchies and Iran is in Pakistan`s interest, and Islamabad can advance this cause by following the median course.

Crimean crisis

F there were no nuclear weapons, Europe would be at war. After all, didn`t the two world wars start over lands on the periphery? Despite all the economic and military power the West commands, there is little it can do to undo Crimea`s loss to the Russian orbit. Russia has used force and a questionable referendum to achieve its aim, but not before the West had done everything possible to provoke Vladimir Putin by wrecking Ukraine`s elected government headed by President Viktor Yanukovych. At loggerheads are two traditionally competing forces which throughout modern history have made Eastern Europe a battleground given the West`s relentless advance towards the East, and Moscow`s resolve to reclaim and reassert its position in the region. Busy with setting its house in order after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia felt frustrated when it found itself unable to check what it regarded as Nato`s intrusion into territory Moscow had, since the days of Peter the Great, regarded as its sphere of influence.What it was especially concerned about was Nato`s membership of some of its former Warsaw Pact allies.

Ukraine is Russia`s underbelly, and Moscow would hardly countenance a Kiev government that is on its wrong side. At the same time, Mr Putin is intelligent enough to realise he will not in the long run be able to reverse the former Soviet republic`s pro-EU orientation. For that reason, he has acted decisively in the wake of Mr Yanukovych`s ouster. It should also be considered that the West`s face-off against Russia is part of a wider global competition as a post-Soviet Russia reasserts itself. In addition to Ukraine, the two are poles apart on Syria.

Interestingly, the West, which has shown little consideration for human rights and sovereignty in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine, is now angry at Mr Putin for the way the Russian president flaunted his military power. Perhaps a less perilous path would have been to involve the UN in order to let Crimea`s people decide their own fate.