The PTI challenge
NOW that the rally is over and any hopes the PML-N had of celebrating its election anniversary in style have been dashed by the PTI’s pugnacity, there is the small matter of sifting through recent events and trying to understand what they could possibly mean. First, the good news. The PTI rally in Islamabad — which was the centre of attention, despite smaller rallies held by Tahirul Qadri supporters in various cities — saw a large number of people register their peaceful protest and then disperse in an orderly manner. There was no violence and no degeneration into a sit-in, meaning that most of the worst fears before the rally were quickly dispelled. In addition, Imran Khan’s core demands regarding the election process are reasonable and could — in fact, ought to be — addressed inside parliament. Short of dissolving the Election Commission of Pakistan — whose members’ terms are constitutionally protected — the ideas that nudge Pakistani elections from the terrain of acceptable and credible to truly free and fair ought to be welcomed, analysed and adopted as necessary.
Now the less welcome news. Regardless of what Imran Khan wanted to talk about, the entire event on Sunday was shrouded in mystery and intrigue. With anti-democrats crawling out of the woodwork in recent weeks and issuing dark warnings about unspecified threats to the system, the May 11 rally was always going to become a focal point of speculation — even if the PTI itself was not involved in any of the anti-democratic fervour. While neither should it have been expected nor would it have been good politics to leave the field open to the PML-N on May 11 to set the tone for the day, perhaps the PTI should have done more to distance itself from the speculation that Sunday was meant to be a repeat of Oct 30, 2011 — when Imran Khan effectively and famously began the PTI’s election campaign a year and a half before elections were due. The fact is, through much of this country’s chequered political history, anti-democratic forces have piggybacked on populist politics to either keep the democratic project off balance or to derail it altogether. Much as the PTI may be contesting the PML-N for primacy in Punjab, the PTI and Imran Khan should also keep in mind that if they agitate too much, the democratic system itself can come under threat.
Finally, a word about the PML-N’s own approach to politics and the PTI challenge. Much as the party would like to downplay the PTI challenge, there are a couple of issues the ruling party cannot afford to ignore. Imran Khan is still capable of drawing a crowd and the PTI does continue to attract at least curiosity from a wide section of the public. So, if governance does not improve, the ruling party could find itself under real pressure in its Punjab heartland.
IMF’s praise — and criticism
THE IMF has praised the Nawaz Sharif government’s economic policies and its effort to stabilise the economy that was on the brink of disaster only a few months ago. The macroeconomic fundamentals are indeed looking up. The budget deficit has been brought under control; the foreign exchange stocks are shoring up; the pace of increase in prices has been arrested somewhat; the economy is growing faster than many had anticipated; tax revenues are up, etc. Satisfied with the progress Islamabad has made so far, the IMF is expected to release the fourth tranche of $550m — the last to be released during the present financial year — from its $6.7bn Extended Fund Facility at the start of next month. Now is the time to consolidate the gains made so far as macroeconomic risks such as inflation remain. This was pointed out by the IMF mission chief on the conclusion of the third review of the country’s economy under the EFF loan.
These gains will be difficult to reinforce without the government taking certain politically tough decisions. These would include broadening the tax net and reforming the crumbling power sector — actions that the government has been postponing since it came to power 11 months ago. It will also have to reverse some controversial decisions such as the tax amnesty announced for tax dodgers if it wants to see the economy recover and be able to stand on its own feet. Both the energy shortages and the financial difficulties facing the government on account of its low tax revenue collection are major constraints on the creation of jobs and economic growth. In other words, the future prosperity of the ordinary Pakistani depends largely on the government’s willingness to take on the chronic issues pulling the economy down. Macroeconomic stability achieved on borrowed money is always short-lived. And when the process reverses, the major sufferer is always the common man. It is time the government starts giving something back to the masses who had brought it to power and have waited patiently for the promised turnaround. If the government wants, the next budget could be the first step towards easing the economic pressures being faced by ordinary people.
Measles deaths in Sindh
OVER the past few years, measles outbreaks have had a particularly devastating effect on Sindh, resulting in a high number of fatalities. There were over 100 measles-related deaths in the province last year, while the disease spread to other provinces as well; in 2012 there were over 200 deaths in Sindh. Deaths have again been reported this year, particularly from the Sujawal and Thatta districts of Sindh. Official figures say 12 children have died so far, though some media reports claim there have been a higher number of deaths. Health officials in the province say nearly 700 measles cases have been reported so far this year. While the deaths of children due to the highly contagious but vaccine-preventable disease are indeed deplorable, there is still time to act before measles spreads further and results in even more fatalities.
The reason why measles has claimed so many lives year after year is due primarily to the low routine immunisation coverage. It is fair to say that if the state had plugged the gaps and conducted the immunisation programme more thoroughly, measles would not be resulting in so many deaths. For example, one medical expert quoted by this paper said immunisation coverage in Sindh was only 29pc. The mother of a child who recently died in a measles outbreak also told this paper that there were no arrangements for administering routine vaccinations in her village. Along with insufficient immunisation coverage, high rates of malnutrition in Sindh make children even more vulnerable to disease. Clearly, the provincial health authorities can do much more not only to make people aware of the importance of routine immunisation to the health of their children, but also to ensure that vaccination facilities exist at the local level, especially in far-flung areas. Elected representatives must also play a greater role in convincing local people to get their children vaccinated and to ensure that the funds, manpower and logistics are in place to immunise all targeted children in their constituencies.