The polio challenge

All eyes are on events in Islamabad, and many political and other leaders have weighed in with their opinion on what shape the future should take. They seem, however, to have forgotten one crucial thing: the possibility of any future at all depends on the population being healthy and able. And it is precisely here where Pakistan is heedlessly, and despite all warnings from several quarters, barrelling down a path that will surely lead to disaster. We refer, of course, to the spectre of polio that not only is not being brought under control, but whose incidence is increasing rapidly. In the eight months that have elapsed so far this year, 117 new polio cases have been reported across the country, giving Pakistan the damning distinction of being the country worst hit by the crippling virus.

Most of these cases were reported from Fata and KP, where the public mindset and issues of both accessibility and potential violence have made matters very difficult for the vaccinators. But polio has also reared its head in Punjab and Balochistan, which until last year were considered free of the virus, and Karachi alone accounts for 10 of the total number of cases. On Thursday, officials in Islamabad sought answers from provincial governments as to why there was such a persistent increase, pointing out that over two months had elapsed since the World Health Organisation recommended sanctions against unvaccinated travellers leaving the country. The answers — if any are forthcoming — will be unpalatable. Despite the escalating risk, Pakistan is simply failing to keep up with the polio challenge. Nowhere are we seeing the sort of push that is needed, such as a sustained campaign to change the mindset of naysayers, a watchful eye being kept on people flooding out of the troubled northwest and the strict enforcement of travel requirements.

True, hundreds of thousands of doses have been administered, but that has clearly not been enough. What will it take for our health administrators to wake up?

Extent of the problem

This has to be one of the longest stand-offs in the history of the capital and as reactions go, its impact has been felt far and wide. The Supreme Court has taken note of the difficulties faced by commuters, and in other evidence of how greatly life has been disturbed, on Friday there was news of a further extension of the summer holidays for schools in Islamabad until Aug 31. These reports point to the seriousness of the situation today as well as to the fear that the problem will persist. It is a tricky task indeed to find a balance between the rights of the protesters and those of others, including the latter’s right to free movement, and to ensure that these are not infringed upon. Good sense must prevail even for rules to be effective but so far this quality appears to be in short supply. Whereas it is reassuring that both the government and the protesters have been staying away from violence in their confrontation, the capital’s predicament, which has repercussions all over the country and beyond, has to be one of the most damning examples of our inability to overcome troubles rationally and without wasting precious time and sullying our reputation.

The stand-off is affecting the country’s engagements with the outside world as well. A few days ago, the finance minister said that the IMF had cancelled its visit to the country due to security concerns. The presidents of the Maldives and Sri Lanka, too, have put off their visits because of the prevailing turmoil. This was the second time in the space of a few months that the Maldivian leader decided not to risk coming to Pakistan. He was earlier scheduled to arrive in June, but the tour was aborted after the militant attack on Karachi airport. If this were not enough, perhaps even more significant is the ‘cancellation’ of the visit by the Sri Lankan president, who has time and again showed himself keen to develop a relationship with Pakistan. The Chinese president, too, was slated to visit either in late August or early September but doubts have been raised about whether he will come. Should the crisis not dissipate soon and should he decide to give Pakistan a miss for the time being, it will be a real blow to the country given the nature and scale of the cooperation between Pakistan and China at the moment.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

It veers from high politics to low farce seemingly from hour to hour. Depending on the time of the day or the latest micro-move by either side, the impasse between the federal government and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf seems to deepen, move towards resolution or maintaining status quo. While simultaneously signalling that it could in fact still go the settlement route, the PTI formally initiated the process of its MNAs quitting parliament. Meanwhile, the government distanced itself from its default container strategy – the use of shipping containers to impede the arrival of protesters at the protest site outside parliament now. The good news is that, yet again, the door to a negotiated settlement has opened. The bad news is that it could quickly shut again, prolonging an already lengthy crisis. At this point, given the flip-flops, feints, brinkmanship and opportunism on both sides, there is little that can be said with certainty. The PTI in particular has taken mercurialness to another, altogether unprecedented level.

If that were not problematic enough, the government seems devoid of any initiative or breakthrough ideas. The prime minister seems strangely content to lead via committee and to rely on the same small set of advisers who allowed matters to reach this stage to begin with. Both the PTI and PML-N need a more dynamic leadership at the very top, at least that much is clear. Yet, that is hardly likely to materialise in the present circumstances. In every crisis, though, lies an opportunity for individuals to step up and provide the missing piece in the leadership puzzle. The PTI, given its more freewheeling approach to politics, can still mint a hero or two by squaring the differences between the absolutists and the pragmatists in the party. Coming back into the mainstream political fold by taking back the parliamentary resignations, while returning the PTI’s focus on electoral reforms, would surely count as deserving of hero status for whoever in the PTI can convince the party hawks to soften their stance.

Outside the PTI too there are political forces, especially the significant parliamentary ones, who can surely up the intensity and speed of their involvement as interlocutors between the politically warring sides to broker a deal. Former president Asif Zardari, other PPP leaders, Jamaat-i-Islami leader Sirajul Haq and the leaders of some of the regional parties too can play a role in brokering a settlement. Whatever the details of a settlement – if there is to be one – it needs to remain with the constitutional and democratic scheme of things. At their worst, the PTI demands are not quite unconstitutional but are surely destabilising for democratic stability. The call for the prime minister’s resignation and fresh elections makes little sense given that it is only the PTI and Tahirul Qadri’s demand. Minus that, there is much that the government can offer and do.

Published in Dawn, August 23rd, 2014