17-10-2014
Split in Taliban ranks
THE rise of the self-styled Islamic State was always going to have repercussions for the militant complex in Pakistan.

The only real question is: how much of an effect will IS have here? The announcement this week by several TTP commanders, headlined by Taliban spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid, that their allegiance now lies with Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi has underlined the lure of IS has for splashy headlines, but the real impact may be limited. Certainly, the banned TTP stands further weakened and Mullah Fazlullah is an increasingly isolated figure, almost consigned to his localised status during the peak of the Swat insurgency.

Additionally, gains for IS are likely to weaken the hand of Al Qaeda.

But does all of that translate into IS being the next big thing in militancy here? The resumé of the six TTP commanders may be semi-impressive, but the reality is that they are on the run and unlikely to have much to offer in terms of furthering the IS agenda in Pakistan.

The main problem with discerning whether the IS graph is on the rise because the TTP graph is on the decline is that it is not known whether the fracturing and splintering of the TTP is driven by disagreements over the leadership of Mullah Fazlullah or an ideological split with deeper, more problematic roots. The rivalry between the two Mehsud groups in the TTP was long-standing, and the rise of groups outside the Waziristan hub, especially the Swat and Mohmand Taliban, had made the TTP umbrella all the more unwieldy and unmanageable. The North Waziristan operation surely exacerbated the internal tensions within the TTP, as must have the security establishment`s clandestine efforts to chip away at the unity the TTP often aspired to. Yet, there is also a perennial fault line among militants here: a localised agenda versus a pan-Islamic vision. Essentially, do militants focus on securing Fata, defeating the Pakistani state and stopping at that or do they always have an eye towards wider goals encompassing the Muslim world? Al Qaeda and its affiliates always pushed for a wider vision, whereas a number of Pakistan-origin militants have had more limited goals focused on securing territory inside Pakistan. Now, IS the new Al Qaeda in a sense has rooted its appeal in a global outlook.

If the TTP fracturing and the lure of IS is rooted in something more than localised factors, the state here will have an even bigger challenge to deal with. When simply dealing with T TP militants with a Pakistan-centric agenda has proved so difficult, how will the state cobble together a strategy to fight a global militant complex that IS could come to represent? Surely though, even if IS is not destined to gain much ground in Pakistan, an old truth still applies: when the existing militant threat is not dealt with, the future threat invariably is more dangerous and complicated.


More CNG licences
LITTLE by little, the government appears to be climbing down from the previous administration`s attempts to restrain the growth of the CNG sector. The latest step in this direction is the approval of 30 licences for new CNG stations, even as the sector is gasping for its allocations of natural gas. The last government had imposed a ban on the issuance of new licences for CNG stations as the sector had grown rapidly, arguing that the dwindling stock of domestic gas was better utilised for power generation and fertiliser, as well as other industrial uses. Those with licence applications pending when the ban went into effect were given provisional licences, and went ahead with their investments. The Supreme Court ordered the government to settle the issue of those working under provisional licences, and the government obliged in January of this year by granting 20 marketing licences to those operating under provisional terms. This week the government has paved the way for 30 more to join the club of licensed CNG dealers.

Whether or not the licences ought to have been issued is a complicated issue. But what is not complicated is the growing shortage of the precious stock of domestic gas. The ban imposed by the previous government has proven very difficult to uphold because the CNG business is a cash cow and there is constant pressure for grant of licence to favoured parties. The pending issue of those with provisional licences, as well as the difficulties associated with attempts to ban the import of CNG kits and cylinders, highlight the struggle the state has had to wage to restrain the growth of this sector. More recently, CNG dealers were allowed to import LNG once the infrastructure for doing so is in place, but without any clarity as to how pricing will work in that arrangement. The recent grant of further licences might well be justified according to the technicalities of the law, but this is an opportune moment to recall the good reasons behind why attempts to restrain the growth of this sector came into being in the first place. The country cannot afford further increases in allocations to the CNG sector. Let us hope that the grant of licences this week is not a slippery slope back towards unbridled growth in the vehicular use of CNG.

Assemblies ranked
IVEN the results of studies in recent years, it is unusual that a private research organisation now places Punjab behind the other three provinces. But then, it is about the working of the provincial legislatures and the Punjab Assembly has never been a priority with Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. He has always tried to avoid getting bogged down in work inside the house when real action awaited him outside. According to the study conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have shown greater will than Punjab to follow the broad principles of involving the assemblies in meaningful activity since the last general election. The key indicators that were looked at included: lawmaking, formation of standing committees, time spent in sessions (particularly on crucial budget discussions), attendance of leaders of the treasury and opposition, punctuality, etc. Under most heads, Punjab did worse than the other provinces, reconfirming the style of governance long preferred by Mr Shahbaz Sharif and the need for correction here but without really providing those who have fared better in this case any great cause for celebration.

The best formula is one that allows every arm of the system to work at its most efficient. Not only could all four provinces of the country do better on the legislative front, some complementary action by the other components that make up the system could have brought better all-round results for the people. It can be argued that, in comparison to Punjab, the study brings out a tendency of some not very efficient governments to try and hide behind the grand façade of a provincial assembly. In a nutshell, all these assemblies and governments are still in the early stages of striking the right balance for smoother functioning of the system to the people`s advantage. For Punjab specifically, it is yet another reminder about a much-needed shift that allows broadening of the power base, delegation of responsibilities and consultation with people through their representatives.