Russia

Over to you

Dec 10th 2007 | MOSCOW
From Economist.com


Russia's new president and prime minister

IN SOME countries the suspense of a presidential election is based on the question of who is going to win a popular poll. In Russia it centres on who the outgoing president (in this case Vladimir Putin) picks as his successor. On Monday December 10th the winner was announced. Dmitry Medvedev, a 42-year-old lawyer from Mr Putin’s native St Petersburg is almost certain to become the next president in March. The next day Mr Medvedev showed just how cosy he is with Mr Putin, saying that the outgoing president should become the new prime minister.

Mr Medvedev is the chairman of Gazprom, the state-controlled gas monopoly and the deputy prime minister in charge of national projects. But what qualifies him for the job of Russia’s president is his (so far) unconditional loyalty to the current president. Mr Putin has two daughters, but appointing Mr Medvedev is the next best thing to his appointing a son.

The choreography of Mr Putin’s announcement speaks volumes about Russia’s virtual democracy. On Monday Mr Putin received Boris Gryzlov, the leader of the Kremlin’s own United Russia party which scored 64% in this month’s parliamentary elections. Mr Gryzlov told Mr Putin that United Russia, having consulted with other pro-Kremlin parties, would like to nominate Mr Medvedev as a candidate for the presidency. A chorus of friendly politicians echoed him. Mr Putin blessed their choice. “I fully and entirely support this candidate,” Mr Putin told them. “I have known Mr Medvedev and worked closely and fruitfully with him for 17 years.”

The show, broadcast on the main television channels, was designed to demonstrate the legitimacy of the exercise. But to all intents and purposes Mr Medvedev is an extension of Mr Putin. The two men studied law at the same university in St Petersburg and then worked at the same mayoral office. Mr Medvedev followed Mr Putin to Moscow and ran his presidential campaign. Since then, Mr Medvedev has always been at Mr Putin's side.

By appointing him as successor Mr Putin achieves two results. One is that Mr Medvedev will most likely lead the country along the path already set by Mr Putin. The other is that Mr Putin himself will retain influence when his term expires in less than three months. Nor is Mr Medvedev the worst choice. He does not have a KGB background, unlike many trusted by Mr Putin. And he is considered as a relative liberal within Mr Putin’s entourage. He did not appear to support the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the Yukos chief, and he did not subscribe to the concept of “sovereign democracy”, saying that democracy did not need adjectives. Yet he has been closely tied with all of Mr Putin’s decisions.

Only Mr Putin knows just how much independence Mr Medvedev is likely to have after the elections in March. But Mr Putin himself will keep a great deal of influence as prime minister. In effect he is not giving up power, only switching offices. Having led United Russia to a landslide victory in the parliamentary election, Mr Putin remains powerful within Russian politics. Mr Medvedev, publicity shy and soft-spoken will rely greatly on Mr Putin’s authority.

The timing of Mr Medvedev's elevation is also intriguing. It came earlier than many had expected. The rumour in Moscow had been that the anointment would take place next week at the congress of United Russia. One explanation is that infighting between various Kremlin clans had reached such a pitch that the situation was becoming unstable. Security chiefs were fighting among themselves and collectively against more liberal figures in the government (a deputy finance minister was arrested on bogus charges and, despite a plea from Alexei Kudrin, the finance minister, was refused bail).

Mr Medvedev will have to tread carefully: the Kremlin is far from being a stable political structure. He may also have problems with the economy. Mr Putin was extraordinary lucky over the past eight years. The oil and gas bonanza earned Russia almost $1 trillion. But now inflation is running in double figures just as fears of recession in America and other parts of the world threaten to push oil prices downwards again. Yet Mr Medvedev may not worry greatly. Mr Putin remains on hand to guide his apprentice; indeed there is every possibility that the position of prime minister will become more important than that of president.

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