Defence anxieties
First, the bad news. The Indian defence budget is set to hit a record high of $40bn. That compares with a basic and Pakistani military budget of roughly $7bn. Moreover, a good chunk of the Indian military budget has been set aside for capital acquisitions, ostensibly to try and keep up with rapid Chinese military expansion – though the security establishment here believes many of the items on the Indian military wish list are there with an intention of increasing its war capabilities against Pakistan. Now, to the somewhat better news. In percentage terms, the increase in the defence budget is lower than the current Indian fiscal year (April-March). Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is below two per cent and dropped further this year. And the latest budget suggests, according to Indian defence analysts, that the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to move more slowly than expected in meeting the demands of the Indian security establishment. There are two aspects here that are particularly worth bearing in mind, one for Pakistan, the other for India.
For Pakistan, the thought of the Indian military pulling out of sight in conventional terms can be an uncomfortable – possibly, unacceptable – one. However, not everything the hawks here perceive is necessarily true. Consider that while the Indian defence budget is set to cross $40bn, the Chinese defence budget is roughly four times larger. India also has to compete for control in the Indian Ocean, a formidably expensive proposition. Moreover, the Indian military’s modernisation project has come after years of under-investment – so the punch it can pack may not be as big as the $40bn figure suggests. The Pakistani security establishment is right to closely track Indian defence spending because India remains, in terms of its military capabilities, the principal threat to Pakistan’s security. But a rational, logical perspective is really what is needed rather than the wild conjecturing in some hawkish quarters.
For India, there should be a realisation that goes beyond the plain numbers: the further away it pulls from Pakistan in the conventional field, the more it will create pressure on Pakistan to perhaps lower the nuclear threshold to stave off the threat of conflict. Simply, much as some in India would like to separate the question of competing with China from the need to manage risk with Pakistan, the overall Indian military capability will send a message in both directions. Stability will only come from advancing dialogue with Pakistan.
Tensions with Dhaka
THE government of Prime Minister Hasina Wajed in Bangladesh appears to be on a mission to disrupt, even harm, ties with Pakistan. Last week, PIA flight operations to Bangladesh were suspended after the Bangladeshi authorities conducted raids in search of a PIA official stationed in that country on what appears to be the flimsiest of grounds. Earlier this month, a Pakistani diplomat in Dhaka was declared persona non grata and had to leave the country. In recent months, it has become increasingly difficult for Pakistanis to acquire visas for Bangladesh amidst allegations by Ms Wajed’s government that Pakistan is stoking unrest in Bangladesh and sponsoring militancy. Officials here have strenuously denied all allegations though they have sensibly steered clear of adding to the drama and handing Bangladeshi authorities an opportunity to push matters from the merely unpleasant into the potentially dangerous. While Ms Wajed appears to be the driving force behind this new phase of a downturn in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations, it is still not entirely clear what is animating the Bangladeshi prime minister’s antipathy towards Pakistan at this particular moment.
Part of the explanation must surely be domestic — as it almost always is in politics. The Awami League government is locked in a bitter struggle with the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party yet again, with the year-old government of Ms Wajed struggling to contain a street challenge by Ms Zia’s party that is clearly meant to overthrow the Awami League government. Invariably, jingoism, nationalism and the secular-vs-Islamist cards are trotted out in Bangladesh’s internecine political warfare — with Pakistan often being dragged into the mix because of the tragic, terrible events of the late 1960s and very early 1970s. But it does appear that the prime minister has either miscalculated or is simply being reckless in her bid to make Pakistan a political and diplomatic issue at this point in time. To be sure, if the Bangladesh state does have some legitimate concerns about Pakistani interference in that country, there are other ways to handle such problems. But such concerns are a two-way street.
Consider that over the years, it has been the near-constant refrain of nearly all Bangladeshi politicians that the Pakistani security establishment interferes in Bangladesh’s politics. Meanwhile, over here in Pakistan, there are long-running suspicions about India’s role in undermining good regional relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Legitimate concerns on both sides do need to be addressed, but surely not in the present hostile climate being created by Bangladesh.
IS’s war on heritage
CONSIDERING that the zealots of the self-styled Islamic State feel no compunction about putting men, women and children to the sword, it would be naive to assume that the militants would have second thoughts about pulverising historical artefacts. In fact, as recent events illustrate, the IS hordes are actually celebrating their vandalism targeting Iraq’s cultural and historical treasures and its houses of learning. In one video that surfaced recently, bearing the outfit’s insignia, men can be seen rampaging through what appears to be a museum; reports indicate the facility is located in Mosul, the Iraqi city that was overrun by IS in June 2014. The modern-day vandals are seen toppling statues and smashing artefacts to dust. In a related incident, IS is believed to have torched Mosul’s main library resulting in thousands of books and manuscripts going up in flames. Iraq’s ancient treasures have been under assault from looters ever since the 2003 US invasion. But with the rise of IS the war on culture and history has gained alarming pace.
This is not the first time that IS militants have ransacked libraries or houses of learning. One report indicates classrooms in Mosul colleges have been transformed into dormitories for fighters. The obscurantists have also demolished or desecrated revered mosques, shrines and tombs in both Iraq and Syria. Fuelling such actions is a mixture of religious fanaticism, ignorance and a desire to show the world what the militants are capable of. The Unesco chief has described these incidents as “cultural cleansing” and called for an emergency meeting to discuss Iraq’s heritage. The threat is indeed considerable as hundreds of archaeological sites in Iraq now lie within IS-controlled territory. But whether it is protecting the people of Iraq and Syria or saving the heritage of these ancient civilisations, the key lies in permanently neutralising IS. And for that to happen, regional states and the international community need to support and coordinate efforts with the governments in Baghdad and Damascus against the extremists.
Published in Dawn March 2nd , 2015