Fond memories revived
THE horse and cattle show of Lahore is back. The occasion rekindles fond memories and, as is customary these days, spurs ready-made theories about the value of cultural spectacles as a means of painting a positive image of this nation in the eyes of the wider world. Reminiscences and international reputation aside, this is one
mela like all others that the people here should be allowed to have regularly and without hindrance. The fair was discontinued about a decade ago because of the tense security situation. It had evolved from a modest livestock exhibition to a show that now needed to diversify further. This is not to say that some of the old features had lost their charm. The livestock competition did create plenty of excitement as did the light show in the evenings and various other offerings such as tent-pegging, dog shows and daredevil stunts.
It was all there yet somehow the grandness of the old that had encouraged Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to rechristen it the Awami Mela in the 1970s, in sync with popular projections of himself, had worn off with time. The foreign dignitaries who had once graced the show went missing as did some of the enthusiasm that had seen people, both from the upcoming industry and agriculture, to contribute to its expansion. To put it candidly, just as those after Bhutto found reason to distance themselves from the ‘awami’ description that the original horse and cattle event was given, the people, too, found other attractions to occupy themselves with. It will now take a few editions to re-establish the old link but this is a good beginning. The fair has to be fully revived. In fact, it has to be expanded upon. It is a cultural expression tied to tradition and evolution right at the grass roots. At the same time, it is, of course, a reminder of the true Pakistan in the face of all those prone to using violent methods to establish an alien order.
Float the rupee
HOW is the rupee continuing to hold its strength against the dollar at a time when currencies around the world are not? The dollar has risen to the highest level in a decade compared to its principal trade partners, and many other countries around the world are eagerly letting their currencies fall in comparison to avail themselves of the cheaper export prices this makes possible. The dollar’s recent strength does not come from any underlying economic dynamism. It comes from the prospect of rising interest rates. In response, central banks around the world are cutting rates, from India to Russia to the European Central Bank to many other emerging markets as well, in an effort to further drive down their own currencies and make their products competitive in world markets. This trend has accelerated throughout 2014, and has only been gaining momentum in the early months of 2015. Yet the Pakistani rupee clings stubbornly to its value of 102 to a dollar.
Some might see this as a sign of economic strength. But all it shows is that the monetary authorities in Pakistan are using their precious foreign exchange reserves, mostly consisting of borrowed money, to shore up the value of the rupee. Recent reports from the currency markets suggest that the authorities may be resorting to increasingly aggressive moves to keep the rupee steady around 102. Why would they do this? One simple answer is ego. For many decades now, the assumption has reigned in our policy thinking that a strong rupee is desirable because it makes imports cheaper. That may be so, if the consumption of imported goods was the only objective that our economic policy was supposed to serve. But in reality, it is worth asking what costs come with this stubborn insistence to support the rupee at higher levels. Exports suffer, as seen in our trade balance, and more sustainable sources of earning foreign exchange dwindle, making the economy more dependent on borrowed resources. Thus, the sale of automobiles and retail fuels are shooting up but exports are declining month after month.
Is this really a desirable state of affairs? It is worth reminding the monetary authorities in Pakistan, and there is some debate about who they really are these days, that the benefits of a strong rupee may not necessarily outweigh the costs. As the dollar continues its unnatural climb, perhaps it would be better to let the rupee find its own moorings.
Repair work for Senate
SURVEYING the wreckage that has become the 2015 Senate elections, this much is already clear: the upper house of parliament has a serious repair job ahead of it in terms of recovering its reputation and reinstating itself in the public imagination as a forum where serious, sober and informed debate is possible. To be sure, few — if any — candidates have been elected to the Senate solely on the basis of vote-buying and without the support of a political party with representation in one of the assemblies. But the perception of these elections has been fundamentally shaped by several other factors: the mismanagement of their parties and the electoral process by the PML-N and PTI; wild speculation in sections of the media; and a welter of allegations on election day itself, leading to unprecedented disruptions of the polling process. That is a stain no house should have and surely not the Senate, which in its composition and design is meant to be above bare-knuckled, winner-takes-all politics. Before the Senate can begin to recover its reputation though, there is the business of avoiding yet more damage. When the new members of the Senate will be sworn in next week and the house will convene to elect a chairman and deputy chairman, there is an obvious problem: the PPP and PML-N will have near-equal representation in the Senate.
So which party will get its senator elected as chairman? For the PPP, retaining the Senate chairmanship will act as a useful riposte to the growing criticism that it has been reduced to a regional party from interior Sindh. For the PML-N, control of the Senate will aid its legislative agenda in parliament and rebut the allegation that it is essentially a Punjab-only party. But with roughly one-fourth of the votes in the Senate each, if the PML-N and PPP do decide to contest the Senate chairmanship, then both sides will need to reach out to the other parties in the Senate — triggering another potentially damaging round of speculation and allegations of vote-buying and arm-twisting. There is also the issue of the PTI. It has yet to allow its members to return to the National Assembly and if its six senators also stay away from Senate proceedings, it will add to the perception of parliament being an incomplete forum. Beyond that perhaps what the Senate should look to focus on is ramping up its legislative and oversight agenda. The wealth of talent and professional expertise — and not plain wealth in monetary terms — in the Senate remains high with this new set of legislators.
There is no other legislative body in the country with specially reserved seats for technocrats and ulema and many of the parties send some of their most experienced and competent members to the upper house. Surely, the best response to scandal is to get down to business quickly.
Published in Dawn March 7th , 2015
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A thrilling win
PAKISTAN’S resounding 29-run victory over the mighty South Africans on Saturday have brought them very close to qualification for the World Cup quarterfinals, a situation that looked well beyond their grasp barely a week ago. Given their horrendous start to the World Cup last month, where they lost back to back games against India and the West Indies and limped to victory over the lowly ranked Zimbabwe, Misbah-ul-Haq’s embattled men had all but been written off by the experts. But the unpredictability tag has long been attached to the Pakistan team, and this was very much evident in its emphatic victory against the Proteas in Auckland. Needless to say, the victory has come as a major boost for the Greenshirts and millions of their supporters around the world who now believe in their team’s chances as a certain title contender. More importantly, the win has restored the players’ confidence in themselves to a large extent besides enabling the team to establish a winning combination which had eluded them in the earlier games.
The resilience of Sarfraz Ahmed, who was adjudged player of the match in his World Cup debut, and the lethal impact of the four-pronged pace attack have brought welcome relief to the erstwhile struggling national outfit and the perpetually under-fire team management. Sarfraz, unencumbered by any notion of restraint despite his unjust omission in previous games, stamped his class yet again as a wicketkeeper-batsman of exceptional talent and should now be made a permanent feature of the team. With three wins in the last three games, Pakistan is clearly on a roll. However, the competition is set to become more gruelling in the later stages and in order to maintain its winning act, the team must guard against any complacency. Hosts Australia and New Zealand, with their inordinate appetite for success, pose a real threat to the competing teams, and with Pakistan peaking at the right time, the World Cup looks destined for a thrilling finish.
Way to the grass roots
NOT for the first time has the Supreme Court said that it will have none of it. The dillydallying governments, the half-prepared Election Commission, the politicians not wanting to share power at the grass roots, have all been censured. The apex court on Friday ordered that all parts of the country must have local governments by September this year. This raises hope. Maybe the so-called democrats, as well as others who have contributed to the delay, have now run out of excuses. All kinds of reasons have been given for the denial of this basic right to the people, an essential follow-up to the much celebrated devolution of power blueprint provided by the 18th Amendment to the Constitution. Much criticism has come the way of the PPP and PML-N, the main forces behind the amendment. They have now been blocking the local governments as the ruling parties in Sindh and Punjab. In circumstances where politicians are as much under pressure and as willing to outsource jobs they should ideally be performing they could well be grilled over their inability to level the route on their own for a smooth and swift holding of the local government vote. That they have been disciplined by the judge’s hammer to tread the right path, albeit behind the clock, will, and perhaps should, expose the political leadership to some more flak.
The time lost cannot be regained. But under duress and lacking in grace as they might be, the set-ups will be doing their own reputations a favour if they were to now earnestly employ their resources and create an enabling environment for the polls. The ruling says that the cantonments must hold local elections on April 25 — the refusal to allow even a week’s postponement conveying the mood the court is in at the moment. As Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is asked to organise the election in May, the province and the cantonments can set an example for the two bigger units in the federation to follow. Maybe there are no other ways that Punjab and Sindh, the two most reluctant provinces, can delay the delivery of the local governments to the people beyond the Sept 20 deadline. But just in case there are more excuses, the pressure needs to be kept up to ensure that the court decision and people’s aspirations are acted upon in the name of the democracy that everyone these days is so keen to swear by.
PM’s visit to Saudi Arabia
THE prime minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia has sparked a mini-firestorm of speculation about the ‘real’ motives for the trip. Yet Nawaz Sharif is just one of many regional and international leaders invited to Riyadh over the past few days. The Turkish and Egyptian presidents were recently in the kingdom, while John Kerry also made a quick dash to Riyadh. It seems two main issues were commonly discussed during these visits: Iran and the self-styled Islamic State. There has been talk of forming a ‘Sunni bloc’ as Tehran has started to exercise greater influence across the region and a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 emerges on the horizon, which would pave the way for the Islamic Republic’s re-entry into the global financial system. Indeed in both Syria and Iraq, Iran is helping these governments push back against IS. This puts the Arab sheikhdoms in a tough spot: should they still try and contain Iran, or should they focus on defeating IS?
IS, on the other hand, is projecting itself as a champion of the ‘Sunni’ cause, putting up a fight against an expansionist, Shia Iran. Here, the difficulty of the Gulf sheikhdoms becomes apparent: if they take a position against IS they’ll be on the same side as Iran. If they support the Islamic State — overtly or covertly — it will effectively be suicidal. For while IS may come in handy to encircle Iran, it is quite clear the self-styled caliphate seeks to dismantle the current political architecture of the Middle East and remake the region, and indeed the entire Muslim world, in its image. That is why it is important for Sunni-majority states, especially the Gulf sheikhdoms, to firmly oppose IS, and despite their doctrinal and ideological differences with Iran, bury the hatchet and work with Tehran against IS. Moreover, if the Sunni states remain ambiguous about their anti-IS policy, Islamists the world over will gravitate towards the extremist group as it continues to play up its anti-Iran and anti-Shia credentials.
And where does Pakistan fit into this equation? It is indeed a difficult challenge for Islamabad to balance its ties with Riyadh and Tehran. But within this difficulty may be an opportunity. Firstly, Pakistan should not become a party in the Arab-Iran tussle. Iran is a neighbour and should not be estranged while decades of ties with Saudi Arabia must also not be severed. If anything, Pakistan is ideally placed to act as a bridge between the two — should it play its cards right. Coming back to IS, the Iranian action against the group must not be viewed through a sectarian lens, especially when Saudi Arabia and other countries have declared it a terrorist organisation. Ideally, collective action against IS is the best option; for this Iran and Saudi Arabia will need to set aside their differences and focus on the common enemy.
Published in Dawn March 8th , 2015