US strike on Libi seen as limited success

* Analyst complains of ‘minimal activity’ in Qaeda strongholds for fear of provoking anti-US feelings among locals

WASHINGTON: The United States’ success in killing a top Al Qaeda operative this week showed that cooperation with Pakistan can be fruitful, but security analysts said there were limits to what the present strategy could achieve.

They said the unmanned Predator airstrike that apparently killed Abu Laith Al-Libi in a remote area of Pakistan demonstrated that the US had the military reach and intelligence sources to carry out a precision attack on a specific target [in Pakistan] with Pakistan’s consent.

But US participation in a ground offensive against Qaeda strongholds along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is unlikely. President Pervez Musharraf has publicly opposed it.

“The arrangement that appears to have been reached between the US and Pakistan is that it’s OK to cooperate on targeted strikes against Al Qaeda leaders,” said Seth Jones, a RAND Corp terrorism analyst, who recently returned from the border region.

The RAND Corporation is a non-profit institution that helps improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis.

“But it’s not OK at the moment for US forces to try to clear and hold territory that is controlled by Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda-related groups in Pakistan,” he said.

Libi appears to have been one of 13 foreign militants killed in the North Waziristan border area. The strike followed a push in recent weeks by US officials to extend cooperation with Pakistan.

Jones said, “There has been a constant communication over the last couple of months ... it’s a drumbeat that’s coming from Washington,” that the crackdown on Al Qaeda must be stepped up.

Anti-Americanism: A series of plots against Western targets that have been linked to Al Qaeda in Pakistan raised the sense of urgency in the US and its NATO allies, Jones said.

He said there had been “minimal activity” in targeting Al Qaeda leaders in their strongholds, partly because US officials were wary of provoking more anti-Americanism within the population.

The US involvement has been limited to training Pakistani security forces, supplying equipment such as night vision goggles, and collecting intelligence, analysts said.

Similar Predator strikes against Al Qaeda leaders have met opposition in Pakistan when civilians were killed. Henry Crumpton, who led the CIA’s operations in Afghanistan when Al Qaeda and the Taliban were routed after the September 11 attacks, said Pakistan had been cooperative.

But it lacks control over the region and has to reckon with the fact Al Qaeda and the Taliban retain a firm hold over the border tribes, through intimidation and alliances.

Pakistan’s turbulent national politics has also made it more difficult for the government and military to take decisive action.

Crumpton told Reuters that the strikes against Al Qaeda leadership were a leg of a three-legged strategy necessary to neutralise the group’s threat. The other two legs were removing its safe havens and addressing the region’s economic and social needs to win tribal support. reuters

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Aarwaa

Pakistan is ruled by three As - Army, America and Allah.