Rupture in the Baloch insurgency
THE decade-old insurgency in Balochistan is no longer the monolith that it had so far appeared to be. Twenty people were killed and several injured in the early hours of Tuesday during a clash between two militant groups belonging to the banned Balochistan Liberation Army and the United Baloch Army that took place near the border of Kohlu and Dera Bugti districts. With both sides using heavy weapons, the skirmish lasted several hours. Elsewhere in the province on the same day, in the Mashkay area of Awaran district, 13 militants were killed in an encounter with security forces. Reportedly, among the dead are a brother and nephew of Dr Allah Nazar who heads the Baloch Liberation Front, another banned separatist group.
For several years, the unity between the various militant groups has been a distinguishing feature of the Baloch insurgency; areas of their operations even overlapped in many places without reports of friction. That seems to have effectively come to an end with the death of veteran Baloch nationalist Khair Bux Marri in June last year when a rift between his sons Mehran and Hyrbyair — who heads the BLA from self-exile in London — led to the creation of the UBA with other groups also aligning themselves with one side or the other. Such a rupture was perhaps inevitable at some point: prolonged militant movements become susceptible to internal crises stemming from differences over ideology and/or finances, which can then lead to disagreements about operational strategies. Where the security forces are concerned, the fracturing of the insurgency offers a tactical advantage for them to comprehensively crush the movement. In 2013, nature afforded them a similar opportunity when a devastating earthquake struck Awaran, a stronghold of the BLF. In its aftermath, the security forces — under the umbrella of providing relief to earthquake victims — managed to access parts of the very volatile district that were hitherto ‘no-go areas’ due to risk of insurgent attacks. However, in the process they also employed highly questionable tactics such as allowing unfettered leeway to the ultra right’s ‘charity’ wings to establish a presence in the area’s secular and multi-sectarian — if deprived — society. Extremist forces are part of the problem that bedevils Balochistan, a fact highlighted by Dr Abdul Malik on Tuesday. They can never, in any viable sense, be part of the solution.
Recent events indicate there is, at last, perhaps some realisation that a new approach is needed. There was the announcement of an amnesty for Baloch militants turning their backs on violence, and an initiative to hold talks with the Khan of Kalat in London is in the works as a means of reaching out to hardline separatist leaders. However, unless the state discards its old proxies and prejudices, and takes the long view that actually addresses legitimate Baloch grievances, the province will remain a powder keg.
The bigger picture
IT is a picture and an accompanying press release meant to send a message of stability and a healthy working relationship: before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif embarks on any visit with internal security or foreign policy dimensions, there is now the obligatory day-before meeting between the prime minister and the army chief, Gen Raheel Sharif. So it was this Tuesday that before Prime Minister Sharif travelled down to Karachi, he met Gen Sharif and discussed issues of great import. There is some sense to the message, given the near obsessive scrutiny by the media and sections of society of the state of the relationship between the leader of parliamentary democracy and the leader of the powerful army. Given institutional histories, Prime Minister Sharif can hardly be faulted for wanting to be seen to be close to and working with his generals, while Gen Sharif would equally like to send a message to his rank and file and officer corps that he is lobbying for the military’s institutional concerns at the highest levels.
There is though a point where symbolism needs to be matched by substance. And substance ought only to be measured in terms of the constitutional scheme of things and incrementally righting the civil-military imbalance in the country. Consider, for example, the issue of Karachi. Where, really, is the civilian input today into the handling of the security crackdown in the city? When the Karachi operation was launched in September 2013, there appeared to be significant civilian ownership and some clear political leadership — Prime Minister Sharif, the interior ministry, the Intelligence Bureau, all seemed to have some sense of purpose and resolve about them. Today, examining the all-too-familiar picture of Gen Raheel seated on the left and the prime minister on the right during one of the army chief’s frequent visits to the prime minister’s office, is there any sense other than the military leadership is the one with the initiatives and the ideas and the civilian government simply acquiesces or indicates to what extent it can go along with the military leadership’s initiatives and ideas?
The lone gunman
LAW-ENFORCERS are routinely criticised for failing to crack down on crime, especially in a violent city like Karachi. But at times incidents take place that truly expose the state of unpreparedness of those who are supposed to serve and protect the people. One such incident transpired in Karachi’s DHA area on Tuesday, when a mentally unstable man blocked traffic on a main thoroughfare, started firing into the air and took a girl hostage before he ran out of ammunition and was subdued. It is a miracle no lives were lost as the suspect was armed with a submachine gun and a pistol. It is equally propitious that the shooter ran out of bullets, or else the episode could have continued for much longer, with more lethal consequences. What is also shocking is that while policemen tried to convince him to surrender, the man was overpowered by a TV reporter who was covering the event.
It is truly frightening to consider the level of mayhem that could have ensued had the gunman been an actual terrorist. The incident bears a striking similarity to the episode in Islamabad in 2013, in which a lone gunman paralysed the capital for several hours.
The incident highlights two key issues: the proliferation and availability of weapons in Karachi, and the lawenforcers’ lack of preparedness. That a mentally unstable individual could have access to a sub-machine gun is shocking and reflects the deadly level of weaponisation in society. Secondly, it is bizarre that in a city with several specialised police units, as well as the paramilitary Rangers, the LEAs were not able to neutralise the suspect until he ran out of ammunition. Of course, there exist nonlethal methods of disarming and disabling suspects in such sensitive situations; the question is, are our LEAs trained in these methods? This incident would suggest otherwise. The stand-off should serve as a moment of reflection for those who rule Sindh, particularly those managing Karachi’s affairs.
Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2015
http://www.dawn.com/newspaper/editorial