Skardu dam
Recipe for disaster
M Ismail Khan
Politics may be the art of the possible, but apparently not as far as Pakistani politicians are concerned. The technical committee on water resources in the Senate of Pakistan, reportedly, is set to unfold another impossible dam proposal which recommends construction of the world's largest water reservoir, that too on the roof of the world.
The proposed Skardu Dam with estimated water storage capacity of 35 million acre feet (maf) will submerge all of Skardu, capital of Baltistan or Little Tibet in the Northern Areas. An outburst or accident of a high altitude dam of this magnitude once unleashed can effectively affect all major cities of the country, including Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi into the Arabian Sea.[B]
It seems that the senate's technical committee, particularly A.N.G. Abbassi, [B]has bought the idea being promoted by a bunch of misguided civil engineers, mostly from NWFP, who have been advocating the construction of Skardu dam, which would involve lucrative mega projects and also take the heat off from controversies generated by the Kalabagh and Basha dams. Whatever be the implicit motives, what is clear that these people have little knowledge and understanding about mountain ecology, environment and natural heritage.
They are also dangerously blank on Pakistan's long-term strategic interests. Otherwise, how could they propose the construction of such a huge water reservoir within the artillery firing range of a hot border? It will take less than a minute of flight time for an Indian aircraft to approach the proposed dam. Skardu is the most porous valley in the Northern Areas that provides for defence facilities including the vital airbase and military command and control hub for protection of the critical Pakistan-China road link, and maintenance of the status quo in Gultari, Ladakh and Siachan sectors. There is no other potential or alternate military base to replace Skardu.
On the other hand Skardu valley, capital of Baltistan, has its own unique ecological, cultural and environmental significance. Sandwiched between one of the world's highest plateaus Deosai and the largest naturally formed glacier outside the poles, Skardu is the historical seat of the Balti Kingdom, and the hub of the Balti cultural heritage. The dusty town dotted around with an amazing mix of lakes, sand dunes, streams, snow-clad mountains and terraced fields and orchards, serves as cultural melting pot of the Balti people. It is the life-line of the over 300,000 Baltis sparsely populated in numerous valleys who already face multiple challenges as an ethnic minority in the religiously radicalised social scene of the country.
Situated amidst the world's newest and the most fragile mountain system, which is prone to earthquakes and other natural calamities, a 35 million acre feet dam in the heart of Karakoram will be nothing but a recipe for disaster. One doesn't even need to be a geologist, glaciologist or climate change expert to realise that a minor shift in the hydrological cycle due to permanent storage of a large water body can play havoc with the sensitive mountain ecology. Imagine the situation if a dam outburst of such magnitude starts rushing down to the hills of NWFP and plains of Punjab and Sindh. The gravity flow triggered by thousands of meters high tsunami-like waves can be disastrous for the entire country. The water reservoir being proposed by the honourable senators can thus potentially imperil the very existence of Pakistan and make it vulnerable to a super mega flood.
It is also evident that the moisture and climatic effects generated by a massive water body will hasten the melting process of the glaciers thus raising possibilities for massive glacier outbursts. Let us not forget the tragedy triggered by the outburst of a very humble dam in Pasni, Balochistan during the recent rains.
But when it comes to planning sensitive issues like water, one can expect anything from the desperate souls in Islamabad. In 2001 for instance, a Food Minister from Sindh made an even more foolish proposal. He called for the bombing of Baltoro and Hisper glaciers to overcome the water shortage downstream; some federal ministries went actually passed the proposal to the ministry of science and technology for comments, which in turn shared the ideas with the country's famous nuclear scientists. It was only after a spontaneous backlash of the Northern Area's media and civil society groups that the proposal was shelved. It would have been like killing the chicken that lays golden eggs.
Skardu valley is the gateway to most of the famous mountaineering expeditions to central Karakoram --home to K2 -- second highest point on Earth, known among mountaineers around the world as the 'throne room of the mountain gods'. In the late 1990s UNESCO considered including the area in the World Heritage Site (WHS) list, but this was deferred due to Indian objections citing the disputed nature of the territory! This would have been the first natural heritage from Pakistan in the prestigious list; the WHS list includes natural sites located in India and Nepal.
If Islamabad has a hard time selling the idea of Kalabagh and Bhasha dams to a national audience, think of the Indian reaction and the global feedback that a proposal about submerging Skardu could provoke. Senator A.N.G. Abbassi's recommendations (reported on Feb 19, 2005) seek the reactivation of the Council of Common Interest (CCI), which is a constitutional forum to decide inter-provincial disputes. However, Northern Areas is neither a province of Pakistan, nor part of the CCI; it has no representation in the Senate, or the National Assembly or the assemblies of divided Kashmir in the name of which the Northern Areas status has been kept in limbo for the last 57 years.
Since Northern Areas are not a federating unit, we will have to wait and see on what constitutional and moral grounds do ANG Abbassi and his colleagues in Senate and the so-called CCI stand on the Skardu dam? Have they consulted people in the Northern Areas on the issue, they are definitely equipped to bulldoze and subdue the already poor and marginalised Baltis in Skardu, but I wonder if they have the mettle to go against the common sense, against nature, against the world and more importantly against Pakistan's own strategic interest?
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/mar2...005/oped/o3.htm