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Default Pakistan's 2008/09 budget - what to watch for

KARACHI, June 4 - Pakistan will announce its budget for the 2008/09 fiscal year on June 10.

Following are details of the budget that have been announced, media reports on its likely contents and forecasts from analysts.

MACROECONOMICS

-- The government's economic managers presented budgetary projections to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on May 28, the Business Recorder said. Projections showed a 15 percent increase in the budget to 2.25 trillion rupees from 1.874 trillion rupees last year while the fiscal deficit for the 2008/09 fiscal year would be 4.9 percent of gross domestic product .

-- Pakistan is targeting 5.5 percent growth in the 2008/09 fiscal year, and 541 billion rupees would be allocated to the Public Sector Development Programme, a government official said on Monday.

-- The agriculture sector was projected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2008/09 compared with a meagre 1.49 percent this year.

-- Large-scale manufacturing is expected to grow by 6.6 percent compared with an expected 4.63 percent this year.

-- Privatisation Minister Naveed Qamar, who is also acting finance minister, has said efforts were underway to bring a fiscal deficit running at 9.0 to 9.5 percent down to no more than 6.5 percent of GDP this year. Appointed to oversee the budget-making process after former finance minister Ishaq Dar resigned in May, Qamar said next year's fiscal deficit should be lower. The government is banking on loans from multilateral lenders and friendly governments to support the budget.

RELIEF MEASURES

-- Qamar has said the government is considering a plan to provide direct relief to the poorest of the poor in the budget.

-- The government is expected to increase the minimum wage to 6,000 rupees a month from 4,500 rupees.

-- Support for research and development in the textile sector is likely to be extended for another year, sources told Dawn.

SUBSIDIES & DUTIES

-- The government told the World Bank that it planned to eliminate subsidies on imported oil in the new financial year, but passing higher oil prices onto consumers will be politically difficult, the Dawn newspaper said.

-- The government is planning to bring down the highest level of customs duty to 20 percent from 25 percent to encourage investment and to reduce customs duty on imports of raw materials and primary and secondary components, budget makers told Business Recorder.

-- BMA Capital Ltd. expects heavy import duties on luxury consumption items such as cars, high-end mobile phones and watches. However, it expects exemptions on the import of raw material for industry such as fertilizer, cement and textiles.

-- The government may introduce a luxury tax on items such as vehicles, Business Recorder said.

TAXES

-- The government would extend an exemption on capital gains tax until June 30, 2010, and the tax regime for capital markets would remain unchanged, the Karachi Stock Exchange said.

-- A 0.2 percent withholding tax on cash withdrawal of 25,000 rupees or more is likely to be increased to 0.3 percent, JS Global Capital Ltd. said.

-- The government has decided to abolish a 3 percent sales tax on supplies made to government departments or autonomous bodies, sources told Business Recorder.

-- The government may withdraw 2.5 percent withholding tax on the purchase of cars, currently deferred by the Federal Board of Revenue, to enhance car sales, Business Recorder said.

Pakistan's 2008/09 budget - what to watch for - Yahoo! Malaysia News
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