LoC violence
THE Line of Control is exploding, and once again the potential for greater conflict is growing. With low-level, cross-LoC violence seemingly ignored outside security circles in both countries and overshadowed by other events globally, there was always the risk of an escalation at a time when neither India nor Pakistan appear to be interested in anything other than hurling accusations at one another. Now that escalation appears to have arrived with several civilian and military casualties on the Pakistani side — including three soldiers and nine bus passengers killed by Indian firing and shelling on Wednesday — and the Indian military claiming one of its soldiers has been beheaded. While the present violence is similar to several other episodes in recent years — and each episode saw better sense eventually prevail — when it comes to Pakistan-India relations, and especially the LoC, nothing should be taken for granted. Moreover, the Uri attack in September and the so-called surgical strikes by India in response may have altered the previous dynamic and created dangerous new expectations on the Indian side.
What is clear is that the 2003 ceasefire ought to be returned to at the earliest. It proved to be durable not only because it was sensible and both sides were committed to its implementation, but because it was rooted in an understanding that LoC violence hurts local populations and always carries the risk of a wider conflagration. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to not understand or appreciate the delicate balance in place along the LoC when, soon after assuming office, he not only ordered disproportionate Indian military responses across the LoC but also allowed government officials to boast about it. Now, with India-held Kashmir roiled by protests and under a suffocating curfew for months, New Delhi is making a thinly veiled attempt to shift domestic and international — to the extent it exists — attention away from India’s problems and towards the old ruse of escalating Pakistan-India tensions.
Here the temptation may be to believe that the imminent transition at the top of the army leadership and the election of a hawkish presidential candidate in the US has given Modi-led India further incentive to test Pakistan’s resolve. It is a temptation because, whether true or not, it deflects from what Pakistan does need to do: hold its nerve along the LoC; work towards a quick de-escalation of the latest violence; and continue with the diplomatic mission of highlighting the Kashmir dispute and the latest repressive measures by India in IHK. If, instead, the language of brinkmanship, retaliation and counter-retaliation is allowed to prevail, Pakistan too will be hurt. Internal security priorities are paramount while the external situation is brittle — the state of Pakistan must not allow itself to be goaded or distracted by Indian provocations.
Amnesty scheme
AS a general rule, tax amnesties are a bad idea because they rarely work and end up penalising honest taxpayers. In Pakistan, the track record of such amnesties has been particularly bad. Therefore, the recommendations made by a National Assembly committee for an amnesty for those with undeclared real-estate wealth should be rejected. Instead, the advice of the FBR opposing the move should be heeded. The government had announced its intention of beginning documentation of the real-estate sector this year, and the FBR valuation tables to be used for tax purposes were a step in that direction. Expectedly, the move met with fierce resistance from the powerful property market stakeholders, since a large amount of the country’s ‘black money’ is parked in real estate. Thus far the government has not backed down, even though the move has caused property prices to drop and transactions have come down sharply. But the recommended amnesty, provided people availing themselves of its provisions agree to pay 3pc of the total amount they are unable to reconcile, would be a step backwards.
The figure of 3pc makes a mockery of the whole exercise. On top of that, allowing a one-time waiver to whiten black money is unlikely to serve the cause of documentation of the economy. The government should learn from its experience of a similar amnesty plan offered to traders earlier this year, which drew a dismal response, and it should not repose so much trust in the scheme recommended now. The earlier move against traders turned out to be little more than a revenue measure. But this move is unlikely to yield any revenue, or result in people declaring the full value at which property deals are being made. If neither the revenue interest of the state, nor the documentation of the economy is served by the recommendations, then they amount to little more than a backdoor exit for the government to end its stand-off with the property dealers. The property market is not as central to the day-to-day life of the economy, nor does it disrupt people’s lives by much if it has to suffer a prolonged slump. The government should not fear the consequences of dragging the affair out and should firmly stick to its original plan. Any climbdown at this stage will only signal weakness on its part and damage its credibility.
Chronic traffic issues
THE IDEAS 2016 exhibition got under way in Karachi on Tuesday, and while thousands of ordinary citizens may or may not have agreed with its slogan, ‘Arms for peace’, invariably most were left frustrated as the event caused a massive traffic logjam. Vehicles, including ambulances and school vans, remained stuck for hours, with traffic police personnel rendered helpless. Where, on the one hand, there was lack of planning on part of the senior traffic management authorities, on the other there was a lawless public. Unfortunately, gridlock in the congested heart of the city has become a chronic problem. But nothing has been done to address it, even though solutions are available. For instance, the Lyari Expressway is a major alternative route. One track of it is operational, but the other has been left dangling for years in a state of near-completion. Why can’t the government finish the job, given the extent to which it would ease the daily commute of tens of thousands of people?
In fact, the problem is evident across the country’s urban landscapes that witness millions of vehicles on poorly maintained road networks creating all sorts of civic and environmental problems. The state’s response is overwhelmingly to either widen the roads — as though this can be done endlessly — or try tricks and stratagems such as signal-free corridors, craftily placed U-turns, or diversions. But the central problem remains. There are simply too many vehicles on the roads, with thousands more being added every day. This is the result of the government’s failure to put in place workable public transport and mass transit systems. Two big-ticket systems have in recent years been created in Lahore and Rawalpindi-Islamabad. But they too have attracted controversy for not being the best bang for buck, and they cover just a tiny portion of the commuting routes. Until the state bestirs itself, the citizenry must carry on fending for itself as best as it can, under the most testing of circumstances.
Published in Dawn, November 24th, 2016