Ground realities

The first US ground action against militants staged by forces that landed in Waziristan has sent shock waves through the country. The audacious assault is a blatant violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. At least ten, and possibly up to 20, civilians, including women and children, are reported to have died. The reports say they were gunned down as troops burst into a house and then opened fire on other bewildered villagers who had gathered around it. There is no news of any deaths of militants, though some reports say several unidentified persons have been whisked across the border into Afghanistan. The ISPR has condemned the 'completely unprovoked' act of killing, and confirmed two US helicopters had landed early Tuesday morning in South Waziristan. Senior security personnel have denied intelligence was shared.

The customary condemnations have come in, a protest lodged with the US embassy in Islamabad and complaints made to military commanders based across the border. It is unlikely these will have much impact. Similar gestures made by Pakistan in the past have simply been brushed away as minor irritants. The country has repeatedly failed to defend its territory. The situation now seems to be worsening with the US apparently no longer sharing advance information about predator strikes or other aerial offences. (In this context, the issue of intelligence is also important because going by the public stance of the government it would be fair to assume that Islamabad is not supplying intelligence to the Americans and NATO for such attacks.) Of course Washington is at fault. We have all seen how its arrogant actions in invading Iraq and Afghanistan have added manifold to the difficulties of these nations. The same disregard for interests other than its own is dictating US landings within Pakistan. But it is also true the situation is, in part at least, of Pakistan's own creation. Washington, like many within the country, is convinced intelligence agencies or elements within them are linked to militants. These concerns have repeatedly been expressed, irrefutable video and audio evidence placed before top officials including the prime minister. Yet Islamabad seems unwilling, or unable, to do anything about this. Such paralysis can only encourage unilateral action.

This having been said, there can be no doubt the killing of civilians in such fashion and the illegal invasion of a sovereign country, can only aggravate the situation. Hatred for the US is bound to increase in Musa Neeke, the village that saw the pre-dawn raid, and in areas around it. This in turn will fuel more rage, more militancy. The task of Pakistan in tackling the problem will become even harder, the perceptions that this is a war fought on behalf of others more strongly rooted. Pakistan's leadership, as it ponders means to defend its borders, must somehow convey these realities to Washington and also take measures to strengthen its own internal resolve to battle terror, lessening the temptation for external forces to step in.


Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has emerged unscathed from an apparent assassination attempt. The attack came from snipers based atop hills that line the route to Islamabad airport, as the prime minister's motorcade travelled along it to collect him on his return from Lahore. Rather ironically, at least one of the shooters is thought to have been based metres away from the spot where the unheeded words of the nation's founder, calling for 'Unity, Faith and Discipline' stare out from the greenery.

There is still conjecture as to whether the attack was intended to kill or merely send out a warning. But the fact that three gunmen were used suggests a full-fledged assassination bid. Several other facts are also clear: the sniper who hit the car that would have been carrying the prime minister was obviously highly skilled, able to pick out with accuracy a target moving at high speed. In this there are frightening echoes of the unsolved Benazir Bhutto killing, in which a gunman apparently struck from the midst of a tumultuous crowd. It would also seem that the would-be assassins had inside information regarding VVIP movement. Only this can explain the timing of their bid. The security implications are immense. Rather bizarrely, the prime minister has stated he had in fact been informed of the assassination plan a day ahead and had accordingly changed travel plans. He has not said who warned him or why no bid was made to follow-up on this critical information. Even more alarming is the fact that even this last-minute change in itinerary appears to have been known to the gunmen, who waited at precisely the right spot on the right day. One can only hope those behind the bid are identified – before they can strike again with possibly more lethal consequences.

What is your name?

Sectarian conflict is nothing new in Pakistan or anywhere else for that matter, and wherever there are sects within the same faith there will at some time have been conflict. Today, the sectarian bloodletting in Kurram agency has a death toll that looks like it will top 1,000 within a week with no sign of a let-up. Such is the ferocity of the conflict in Kurram that some commentators are suggesting that it is 'ethnic cleansing' -- not so; it is sect and not ethnicity that drives the bloodlust. Across the country at various times in the recent past both Shia and Sunni groups have bombed one another's mosques and imambargahs at will and now we see what appears to be the selective kidnapping of Shias – abducted in Bara tehsil of Khyber agency.

Selective kidnapping is not new either but what is particularly disturbing about the most recent kidnapping is its scale. Between 40 and 50 recruits of the Hangu Police Training College were the targets and if recent history is anything to go by their chances of a safe return to their families are slim. The Taliban have regularly kidnapped military and paramilitary personnel in NWFP and the tribal areas in recent years, often killing those they found to be Shia before releasing the rest of the group; a simple asking-of-the-name or examination of identity card being enough to sort the quick from the soon-to-be-dead. Mangal Bagh, head of the banned Lashkar-e-Islam and de facto ruler of Khyber agency says that none of his men are involved in the abductions and he will do all he can to trace the missing recruits – an offer that is at best hollow and at worst a sickening mockery.

The canker of sectarianism now spreads the length and breadth of the country, with no minority able to feel safe or secure. Prime Minister Gilani has proposed a cross-sect jirga in an attempt to short-circuit the Kurram conflict and we wish him well in his endeavours – but suspect that a single jirga no matter how well-intentioned is going to do little to resolve matters. The families of those taken in the latest iteration of sectarianism can do nothing beyond say their prayers and hope – and the Hangu Police College might give some serious thought to providing protection for its recruits as they move from place to place in the future.

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Regards,
P.R.